How does WWII unfold without the Soviet Union?

So, say that Operation Barbarossa is a complete and unmitigated success for the Germans, and an absolute worst-case scenario for the USSR. That is, the Soviets are utterly routed, Moscow is taken, and they ultimately surrender at some point in late 1941 or early 1942, ceding everything west of the Urals to Berlin.

But at the same time, Pearl Harbor still happens right on schedule, and Hitler, feeling even more confident with the Soviets knocked out of the conflict, still declares war on the United States.

What happens next? Or, more specifically, how do the Allies (here, primarily the United States and the United Kingdom) and the Axis strategize and allocate troops and resources differently? I have to assume that the Germans would immediately begin pouring more troops into the Mediterranean theater, but at the same time they’ll need to leave a significant occupying force in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, etc. Would they even be able to extract resources from the rump USSR in the peace treaty? Would they be better able to goad Franco or others into officially joining them against the Allies?

In the case of Washington and London, what sort of strategies would they adopt? Would they take a significantly different approach to fighting in North Africa and the eventual invasion(s) of Europe without the Eastern Front eating into so many of Germany’s resources for the time being? With Europe seeming like a much tougher nut to crack, might they even abandon the “Europe First” plan and focus more on Japan for the time being? If so, how might the Pacific War go differently?

Now, even in such a scenario, unless Germany falls into many, many more lucky breaks, an Allied victory still seems the most likely outcome given their overwhelming resource and manpower advantage, the Manhattan Project, etc., but how long would the war last in such a scenario? Another year? Year and a half? Also, note that this scenario doesn’t preclude the Soviets jumping back in at some point, but what would be the most logical time for them do so? Perhaps after the Western Allies get troops onto the European continent?

Finally, how would the postwar world most likely look in such a scenario?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Pacific first, mitigated by whatever it takes to hold the line against the Germans in the Middle East/Persian Gulf.
 

Empra

Banned
Hitler doesnt declare war against the US when the USSR surrenders by the end of 1941, the US concentrates on Japan, Britain and Germany agree to a cease-fire sometimes in 1942 or 1943.

In the unlikely event of a British/US - German war the following would happen: The Germans have 3 million men in the East by late 1941. Around 1 million has to stay for occupation duties, around 1 million would be demobilised and transferred into German agriculture and industry and 1 million are sent to Western Europe and the Medditerannean. The Germans manage to either invade or starve Malta into submission because they now have twice as many aircraft at their disposal as OTL. British bomber losses during 1942 are most likely twice as heavy as well. The Germans either manage to conquer Cairo by the end of 1942 or give Monty such a bloody nose at Alamein that he would have to cancel his offensive after a few weeks. North Africa would become the major battlefield of a US/UK-German war. This could go on for years untill a cease fire or untill Roosevelt dies. Best case scenario for the Allies is a bloody victory by the end of 1943. After that the Allies have no prospect of invading Europe.

Germany gets supplied by additional resources from the East it didnt have OTL, the Allies are faced with a lot more fighter aircraft than OTL; the war in Europe becomes a stalemate. The military and population of the US will demand the stop of the war in Europe in order to concentrate on the Japanese. If Roosevelt ignores this he might loose the election of 1944 against a candidate who promises to end the senceless war in Europe. Even if he wins he still dies in April 1945 and Truman ends the war in Europe. As for atomic weapons; less than 10 000 people out of 200 million know about them; also even the people that know about them know that a few nuclear bombs are not enough to defeat a German dominated Europe with a much stronger airforce than OTL.
 
the best case for Nazi regime would be to stop after they had destroyed much of Soviet military and captured Leningrad? they could demand all the aircraft and naval vessels, as well as obviously grain and oil for "occupation costs" beyond anything they could have gained from marching on Ukraine and Caucasus? (cannot imagine a USSR that withdraws from the war would receive much if any Lend Lease aid? so their situation would be pretty dire and unable to reconstruct a modern military. they would closely resemble the KMT China regime with large occupied part of their country)
 
I think by late 1942 you probably still end up with North Africa in allied hands, logistics heavily favours the Allied powers there. Sicily might get taken but Italy is unlikely to fold as easily.

I don’t know what happens with German efforts to invade the Middle East through Turkey or Persia, it is at the end of horrible overland supply line so I think they would really struggle.

Japan gets crushed at some point.

Spain still faces the decision between starvation in the axis camp and being able to import food as a neutral, not a tough choice.

The Allies probably end up with a strategy of strategic air attacks on oil (and coal) and their power generation, combined with landings at some point. This can bring the Germans down, especially if this is where some of the atomic weapons get used.
 
There's a timeline depicting something very close to this situation. It's actually one of the ones that brought me to this site and has since been published. The Anglo/American Nazi War, by CalBear.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.211950/


What happens is that they bomb Europe for like 15 years then when they roll in, the whole rotten structure collapses.
More like 5 years of bombing, iirc in AANW there is Ann. Unofficial truce in 1947 when the Allies realise they can’t gain enough air superiority over Europe with a Germany that is entirely focused on it.

Eventually their best chance is just to waitNazi Germany will collapse in the 50s- early 60s at the very latest.

Also I kinda disagree with AANW’s Nazi nuke research. The us could hide project Manhattan because nukes weren’t deployed. As soon as nukes get deployed it’s only a matter of months, at best a couple of years, before Nazi Germany learn about it with details, even without using these nukes.

Then once they learn it, Hitler freaks out and restart the nuclear program, from there it would take somewhere around 7 to 9 years to develop nukes - IMO in AANW they should have had basic A bombs by 1956-1957 at the latest

(And also I consider AANW’s Germany control of Eastern Europe/Reichkomissariat vastly optimistic, with their genocidal control of it, they would have to fight a counterinsurgencies against 10+ million insurgent who have nothing’s to lose
 
Aren't the nukes in AANW deployed in thelater stages of the war after Germany is reeling?
Yeah, in 1959, after a failed V1 (or a successor I don’t remember) attack kills part of the royal family (and a few thousand people in the UK iirc), there are tactical attacks in France and strategical one in Germany , plus of course the Anthrax bombing...

(I may be misremembering part of it)
 
Last edited:

nbcman

Donor
US's first Nuke use in the AANW timeline was with Genie AA missiles to intercept the 1954 St Patrick Day Raids per this post. First use on the battlefield was in response to the Nazi Victory Offensive in December 1958 per this post.
 
There's a timeline depicting something very close to this situation. It's actually one of the ones that brought me to this site and has since been published. The Anglo/American Nazi War, by CalBear.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.211950/


What happens is that they bomb Europe for like 15 years then when they roll in, the whole rotten structure collapses.

I know that work, but I was wondering if it’d be feasible for the Allies to pursue the war against Germany without any significant pause in hostilities.
 
US's first Nuke use in the AANW timeline was with Genie AA missiles to intercept the 1954 St Patrick Day Raids per this post. First use on the battlefield was in response to the Nazi Victory Offensive in December 1958 per this post.

Oh that's right, I didnt think the Germans even knew what had happened when those rockets hit. By 1959 it was too late for them to get anything up and running.
 
I know that work, but I was wondering if it’d be feasible for the Allies to pursue the war against Germany without any significant pause in hostilities.

An ongoing air was along with battles in secondary fronts is entirely plausible, as the Allies slowly bleed the Germans dry. The larger constraint is the Germans pulling back from secondary fronts and hunkering down in Fortress Europe.
 
the best case for Nazi regime would be to stop after they had destroyed much of Soviet military and captured Leningrad? they could demand all the aircraft and naval vessels, as well as obviously grain and oil for "occupation costs" beyond anything they could have gained from marching on Ukraine and Caucasus? (cannot imagine a USSR that withdraws from the war would receive much if any Lend Lease aid? so their situation would be pretty dire and unable to reconstruct a modern military. they would closely resemble the KMT China regime with large occupied part of their country)

my scenario maybe too negative about Soviet prospects? have in mind more planning for naval operations on the Baltic & Black Seas? no evacuations from Tallinn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_evacuation_of_Tallinn and Odessa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Odessa_(1941) or greatly reduced.
 
An ongoing air was along with battles in secondary fronts is entirely plausible, as the Allies slowly bleed the Germans dry. The larger constraint is the Germans pulling back from secondary fronts and hunkering down in Fortress Europe.

How likely is it that the Germans would undercut their advantage though by doing something dumb like, say, launching an invasion of the Middle East from the Caucasus?
 
I have to wonder... in the OP scenario, where Hitler has seen his main goal of seizing land from Russia for the expanded Reich... is he going to even want to continue the war? If he can pull several millions of troops/planes/vehicles back to the west, would he have any chance of getting a peace with the UK? And Japan... where Russia is so thoroughly beaten, might they not look covetously at Russia's land in the Far East? It's hard to imagine that such a big POD as the USSR going down doesn't have more side affects...
 
I don't see a major change in US strategy. The Plan Dog memo was written in December 1940 and already recommended a Europe First focus. The memo viewed Nazi Germany as the greater threat (Germany or Japan) and the fall of the United Kingdom would make eventual victory much more difficult. If Barbarossa is successful that event reinforces that viewpoint with the Germans even more of a threat to the United Kingdom; I'd think we would see less resources be allocated to the Pacific and a larger percentage of troops and equipment sent to support the British in Europe.

The $64,000 question is what will Nazi Germany do after a successful Barbarossa. Will it try to subdue the United Kingdom and force them to terms or focus on consolidating its gains in the East and settle for another Phony War on the Western front?
 
How likely is it that the Germans would undercut their advantage though by doing something dumb like, say, launching an invasion of the Middle East from the Caucasus?

I'd think so. The problems of the thin railway net to the Caucasus region, lack of railways thru it, or many other roads, and lack of useful water transport past Rostov, makes the logistics of Lybia look easy. But, I don't see how the Germans would not at least probe south and make a try. The oilfields so often mentioned are in range of bombers from the airfields the Brits had established in the ME. So the Germans have a incentive to at least examine the question. Then there would be residual Red Army formations in the Caucasus. their raiding and efforts at partisan warfare would be another incentive. If the Allies build up a army group in Persia and start probing north ...

...
The $64,000 question is what will Nazi Germany do after a successful Barbarossa. Will it try to subdue the United Kingdom and force them to terms or focus on consolidating its gains in the East and settle for another Phony War on the Western front?

Again I don't see why not. The Allies would be launching air raids on occupied Europe from the UK. OTL the Germans attempted counter raids. I cant see them doing any less in this situation. If the German AF leans forward in a maximum effort against the UK, as in August/September 1940 it would be a interesting air battle.
 
An ongoing air was along with battles in secondary fronts is entirely plausible, as the Allies slowly bleed the Germans dry. The larger constraint is the Germans pulling back from secondary fronts and hunkering down in Fortress Europe.

'Bleeding dry' was the British strategy. I cant see it working if the Allies don't get a grip on a substantial portion of the Germany army somewhere. Forcing them to hunker down inside Fortress Europe is one thing, but that does not end the war before the Allies suffer long term economic effects as well. So the Allies have to force battle at points where their advantages in the air and sea, & industrial strength offset the large land army the Germans can field.
 
Heres a minor question. Under the conditions of the OP, what residual Red Army could still exist east of the Volga? Even if there is a armistice how large a future threat would be a 'Russian' or communist state in that region be? Population, industry, withdrawn armies and weapons after the end of the Soviet debacle?
 
Top