How does greater RN success 1939-41 impact the Far East Fleet?

1939 - Courageous dodges the torpedoes, still leading all carriers removed from ASW patrols.
1940 - Glorious and Courageous sink Scharnhorst and Gneisenau off Norway
1940 - Larger CBG against Taranto, Littorio, Veneto and Dulio sunk, fuel farms destroyed.
1941 - Hood damaged, but survives engagement with Bismarck. Bismarck sunk per OTL.
1941 - Ark Royal survives the torpedo hit
1941 - Indomitable does not hit coral reef
1941 - Illustrious and Formidable do not collide
1941 - Formidable avoids major damage in Med
1941 - Barham survives the torpedo hits

IMO, these twists of luck are not entirely far fetched. Of course we must assume the butterflies do not kill the above ships regardless. So, the RN enters the Pacific War in Dec 1941 with eight fast fleet carriers, two CVLs, three KGV class, three battlecruisers, nine 15” battleships and two Nelsons. Plus you have much of the German and Italian surface fleets destroyed.

How is British Far East Fleet strategy and deployment affected? We’ve still got a FAA aircrew and aircraft shortage, no fleet train, and not entirely well suited aircraft. Plus there’s still Tirpitz and German and Italian heavy cruisers (including two Deutschland class) to deal with.
 
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The RN would also have the Eagle, Hermes and Argus and any escort carriers in support.

They should be able to keep 4 or 5 fast carriers and possibly the Eagle or Hermes in the Indian Ocean, which would preclude the IJN going after the RN in anything less than full strength like Pearl Harbour, Indian Ocean raid and Midway.
 
The RN would also have the Eagle, Hermes and Argus and any escort carriers in support.

They should be able to keep 4 or 5 fast carriers and possibly the Eagle or Hermes in the Indian Ocean, which would preclude the IJN going after the RN in anything less than full strength like Pearl Harbour, Indian Ocean raid and Midway.

In view of maintenance cycle and transit time, 3-4 fast carriers plus 1 CVL sounds more realistic. As for the BBs and BCs, only the BCs, QEs and KGVs are fast enough to accompanied the carriers. Given that the remaining surface threat in North Sea and the Med, perhaps 2 QEs and 2 KGVs would be deployed to Asia.

IMO, these twists of luck are not entirely far fetched. Of course we must assume the butterflies do not kill the above ships regardless. So, the RN enters the Pacific War in Dec 1941 with eight fast fleet carriers, two CVLs, three KGV class, three battlecruisers, nine 15” battleships and two Nelsons. Plus you have much of the German and Italian surface fleets destroyed.

How is British Far East Fleet strategy and deployment affected? We’ve still got a FAA aircrew and aircraft shortage, no fleet train, and not entirely well suited aircraft. Plus there’s still Tirpitz and German and Italian heavy cruisers (including two Deutschland class) to deal with.

Fleet train is less of a problem with the RN network of base remaining intact. As long as Singapore holds, the RN has a fulcrum to operate out from in SEA. Hong Kong remains difficult to defend even with increased RN presence in Asia.
 
If the British had more resources and their european enemies less I suspect that Force Z would be much bigger and more balanced than OTL. How would this have effected Japanese plans for their opening attacks in December 1941? Might the Japanese have struck south first in the hope that the US would remain neutral long enough for them to finish off the British fleet before turning on the American's?

If things remain OTL but Force Z had a couple of fleet carriers along, would the CAP have made a difference when they came under ground based air attack? I suspect that with a larger naval deployment greater pressure would have been applied to all sides (navy and RAF) to give the fleet more land based fighter cover. Indeed could such a deployment have increased the supply of modern fighters to Malaya for this very purpose? Could this have made the Malay Campaign longer and bloodier? Indeed if the RN gets at the invasion fleet the Malayan campaign probably ends in an allied victory.

If things go OTL and the British gather a larger fleet in the IO than I suspect that they either have a date with the KB and roll the dice early in 1942 or at the very least the British act much more aggressively against Japanese bases and shipping in the IO. This would have implications for the ground campaign in Burma if enough supplies don't reach Rangoon by sea. It would also force the Japanese to use higher levels of resource in this area at the cost of the Central Pacific.
 
One relevant question is how does the radically changed naval balance in the Med effect the North African campaign? If the naval balance means the axis loose more Libya-bound shipping (or don't risk convoys as often) and the British are more aggressive at coastal operations (ala the April '41 bombardment of Tripoli), it's possible that disruptions to the supply chain and loss of men and equipment might mean Sonnenblume doesn't have as much success as OTL, putting any later British offensives in a reasonable position to drive the Axis out of North Africa in late-41 or early-42. If so, the implications go beyond just extra ships out East...
 
The prime British goal is to defend Malaya, not to go gallivanting around the South China Sea or beyond. So I've always thought that a focus on what more naval power could be sent fundamentally misses the point. This isn't the open Pacific; Malaya was a land battle and it is best fought by land-based forces.

This isn't to say that carriers won't help. A key problem in Malaya was the weakness in the air that allowed Japan easy resupply and to hop along the coast, outflanking British positions, and carrier aircraft offer some capability here. But these issues are much better addressed by land-based air - it's more flexible, more capable and operates from unsinkable bases.
 
Not to mention that this would also allow RN submarines which in the cases of the T class were designed for Pacific operations to have longer deployment durations if Singapore holds.
 
Yes, we have the carriers (and capital ships), but we still lack the planes worth flying off them. The RAF still treat the navy as something short of leprosy when it comes to naval aviation and the hardware is still limited, even come ‘42. Illustrious in OTL was flitting around the Indian Ocean with Swordfish as her primary anti-surface weapon in ‘42. A carrier vs carrier engagement in ‘42 wouldn’t be pretty.
 
Greater success in the earleir battles probably has an impact on the land misadventures specifically North Africa through the RN being stronger in the Med - now if only some one can sit on Churchill and butterfly the Greek adventure!

If Malta can be reinforced and the 2nd AIF is largerly repalced with British Divisions in NA then Malaya can be saved and a larger Force Z can be dispatched.

But I fear that Winston would use up any extra forces in some crazy scheme or another - unless as I said some one can sit on him!
 
Yes, we have the carriers (and capital ships), but we still lack the planes worth flying off them. The RAF still treat the navy as something short of leprosy when it comes to naval aviation and the hardware is still limited, even come ‘42. Illustrious in OTL was flitting around the Indian Ocean with Swordfish as her primary anti-surface weapon in ‘42. A carrier vs carrier engagement in ‘42 wouldn’t be pretty.

To be fair her work up was rushed and she was taking on the French - Swordfish were good enough for that.
 
This isn't the open Pacific; Malaya was a land battle and it is best fought by land-based forces.
Four Revenge class out of Rangoon or Singapore would offer strong NGFS for the British land forces.

Meanwhile, pack the three BCs with more AA, and you've got good heavy CBG protection. Use the CBG to support bringing army and RAF reinforcements by sea.

Once the fighting starts, i'd not base any of the heavy ships at Singapore. Ceylon for most, Rangoon for some.

One good thing the CVs offer is aircraft transport. Stuff their decks with Spitfires, Hurricanes, Beaufighters, etc for transport to Malaya and Burma.
 
Interesting. Probably, (but not certainly) a greatly increased RN surface fleet in the E. Indian Ocean and perhaps further NE would just have provided a GREATER target rich environment for the JIN.
 
With eight fast CVs the FAA needs to have about 1.000 aircraft onboard or in rotation and maintenance. Plus another 200 for training and the three CVLs.

Can the FAA field such a force by Dec 1941? I fear they'll be cobbling together squadrons of Ripons, Sharks, Baffins, Skuas, Rocs, Nimrods, and ex-RAF Gladiators and clapped out Mk. I Hurricanes and Spitfires. Not the sort of force to send against Zekes, Kates and Vals.

Can the 1940 RN procure sufficient air drop torpedoes, depth charges and bombs?

Perhaps the expanded CV and FAA force's contribution is as a deterrent to Japan. Four or five CVs and BBs at Singapore may make Japan ponder how to surprise it and Pearl Harbour.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
The deployments above look reasonable. Japan went to great effort IOTL to free up the carriers from having to be used to support the operations towards the PI and Malaysia. ITTL, the forces used to attack Pearl will be attached for months to the drive south. There will be a series of naval battles that either side could win. The Japanese will still have to attack PI, and the USA will use the fleet at Pearl to try to execute Plan Orange. Due to mostly to supply issues like fuel, it will take more than six months for the USA forces to gain momentum.

If I was writing this ATL, the war opens combined Fleet helping clearing the skies around PI followed by the decisive battle near the PI of the British/Japanese fleets. If the British don't go to the PI, then the Japanese will come to Singapore.
 
The deployments above look reasonable. Japan went to great effort IOTL to free up the carriers from having to be used to support the operations towards the PI and Malaysia. ITTL, the forces used to attack Pearl will be attached for months to the drive south. There will be a series of naval battles that either side could win. The Japanese will still have to attack PI, and the USA will use the fleet at Pearl to try to execute Plan Orange. Due to mostly to supply issues like fuel, it will take more than six months for the USA forces to gain momentum.

If I was writing this ATL, the war opens combined Fleet helping clearing the skies around PI followed by the decisive battle near the PI of the British/Japanese fleets. If the British don't go to the PI, then the Japanese will come to Singapore.
The RN in this scenario stays deep in the South China Sea with the major exception of the submarine arm.

The IJN has to cone to the RN and play within RAF and Dutch land based air. And every minute burns oil the IJN can not replace.
 
The prime British goal is to defend Malaya, not to go gallivanting around the South China Sea or beyond. So I've always thought that a focus on what more naval power could be sent fundamentally misses the point. This isn't the open Pacific; Malaya was a land battle and it is best fought by land-based forces.

There was no common border for the IJA to march across, they had to land in the north of Malaya and build up their strength somewhat before advancing south. Ostensibly Force Z went gallivanting (a perfectly suitable word for what that halfwit Phillips did) around the Sth China Sea to attack the landing area and supporting merchant convoys.

Four Revenge class out of Rangoon or Singapore would offer strong NGFS for the British land forces.

They'd be a good reaction force against any landing by the IJN of the IJA.

With eight fast CVs the FAA needs to have about 1.000 aircraft onboard or in rotation and maintenance. Plus another 200 for training and the three CVLs.

Can the FAA field such a force by Dec 1941? I fear they'll be cobbling together squadrons of Ripons, Sharks, Baffins, Skuas, Rocs, and ex-RAF Gladiators and clapped out Mk. I Hurricanes and Spitfires. Not the sort of force to send against Zekes, Kates and Vals.

I think your numbers are pretty far off there. IIRC the Ark had the biggest CAG of the fast carriers by late 41 with 54 aircraft, the others were usually less than 50, so or 8 carriers thats about 400 front line aircraft. Of course the refit cycle will mean that only 5 or 6 carriers will be on line at any one time, so their 50 plane CAGs will also be in a refit/replenish/training/reserve cycle most likely at less than full strength either in numbers of planes or qualified aircrew, dropping the front-line requirement to 250-300 planes for the fast carriers.

The 3 slow carriers would only require about 50 aircraft all up, so perhaps 35 on line at any one time. All up I think a carrier capable fleet of 500 aircraft in late 41 would be sufficient for the FAA to equip the carrier fleet. This is still a daunting task, but a long way from 1000 planes.
 
Four Revenge class out of Rangoon or Singapore would offer strong NGFS for the British land forces.

Meanwhile, pack the three BCs with more AA, and you've got good heavy CBG protection. Use the CBG to support bringing army and RAF reinforcements by sea.

Once the fighting starts, i'd not base any of the heavy ships at Singapore. Ceylon for most, Rangoon for some.

One good thing the CVs offer is aircraft transport. Stuff their decks with Spitfires, Hurricanes, Beaufighters, etc for transport to Malaya and Burma.

Tricky to provide NGFS when based out of Rangoon or Ceylon...

But yes, they do need to be moved to safety as long as Japan has air superiority. So I agree with your last point - probably the best use of them is to act as ferries for RAF aircraft.

Whether those RAF aircraft, and the modern armour and artillery needed to hold Malaya, are available is a different question. OTL, they were committed to Greece, Africa and Moscow. On that basis, holding Malaya requires a quiet North Africa, not a stronger fleet.
 
I believe that in this situation the most likely fleet sent east would be centered around 3 taskforces. Lets call them forces x y and z.

Force X - slow battlegroup
Force X will be centered around 3 old battleships. HMS Eagle attached as slow organic aircover.

Force Y
Force Y will be centered around a kgv battleship and a pair of battlecruisers.

Force Z
Force z wil be built around 3 fleet aircraft carriers
 

hipper

Banned
Yes, we have the carriers (and capital ships), but we still lack the planes worth flying off them. The RAF still treat the navy as something short of leprosy when it comes to naval aviation and the hardware is still limited, even come ‘42. Illustrious in OTL was flitting around the Indian Ocean with Swordfish as her primary anti-surface weapon in ‘42. A carrier vs carrier engagement in ‘42 wouldn’t be pretty.

Somerville planned to do to the iJN in the Indian Ocean what Nimitz did to them at Midway, the difference being that

He planned to attack at night
His dive bombers carried twice the ordinance
Both were equally vulnerable to defence fighters
Somerville had airborne Radar.

Swap out the R class for Hood Renown and a brace of KGV’s and the IJN could have a very bad day
 
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