How does an Axis Spain change things?

It might not, but there is pretty serious political fallout at the moment Britain is at its weakest.

Churchill was not going to get replaced barely a month or two after being appointed. Any political fallout would just be burdened upon the previous administration.

Anyhow, in the long term (which is what the British at this point are looking at) the fall of Malta or Gibraltar are in no way decisive. Taken together or in isolation, neither of these significantly improves the Axis ability to supply the forces in North Africa. It might just lead to much smaller British intervention in Greece, or butterfly it away, which can only be a good thing for the British. Maybe Crete would then be defended with troops at peak strength, instead of exhausted evacuees from Greece.
 
Churchill was not going to get replaced barely a month or two after being appointed. Any political fallout would just be burdened upon the previous administration.

Anyhow, in the long term (which is what the British at this point are looking at) the fall of Malta or Gibraltar are in no way decisive. Taken together or in isolation, neither of these significantly improves the Axis ability to supply the forces in North Africa. It might just lead to much smaller British intervention in Greece, or butterfly it away, which can only be a good thing for the British. Maybe Crete would then be defended with troops at peak strength, instead of exhausted evacuees from Greece.

Further but a military intervention in Portugal for example would likely be massively more successful than one in Greece. The Portuguese are not distracted from their own defence by trying to hold Albania for example. The terrain of Portugal removes the normal German means of beating the British which is by out manoeuvring them. Not only that but it will take time for any German move on Gibraltar which in itself will not be easy nor straight forwards.

In addition to the loss of supplies to Germany via Iberia the Germans will even in the event of victory find their forces on the end of long lines of communication away from the Soviet Frontier. If operations were to take into June 1941 this would be awkward.

So Franco has a narrow window for his gambler's throw. Yet this is a man not addicted to gambling who has already made his throw and gotten what he wanted so why risk it?

Assuming though that the POD is Franco suffers a head insult that changes his personality then the results of Spain going to war are not necessarily as disastrous as some posters happen to believe. The Allies were not entirely able to seal the Gibraltar Straits themselves and they had far more naval assets.
 
It was the staging area for supplying Malta, so without it Malta falls in 1941. Without Malta Rommel's supply lines are a lot less interdicted from 1942 on.

Convoys could run from the Alexandria end, depends if Malta is condsidered worth the extra effort.
 

Insider

Banned
What about the mild scenario? If the Axis forces did marginaly better in the Med. Franco could decide to make further concessions without entering the war. Two divisions instead of one in Legia Azure. Release of internees, both man and ships. (The ships would still be in Vigo or Seville so they won't help axis shipping, but they now could be legaly unloaded, with cargo transported by land, and they could be legaly sold, and sail under Spanish banner.) What would UK do with "neutral, but pro Axis" Spain?
 

Insider

Banned
If they become a great enough hindrance, squeeze them till they squirm? At which point, Franco will probably pull back.

But how? End credit line? (Is there one active?), call back loans and freeze assets? (are there any to call back and freeze?). Make the Commonwealth stop trade with Spain? Boycot Spanish goods? (would the loss outweight the gains?).
Or would the British do something as outright as seizing the ships (provoking the Spain to war), or even reapeat Mers-el-Kébir
 
But how? End credit line? (Is there one active?), call back loans and freeze assets? (are there any to call back and freeze?). Make the Commonwealth stop trade with Spain? Boycot Spanish goods? (would the loss outweight the gains?).
Or would the British do something as outright as seizing the ships (provoking the Spain to war), or even reapeat Mers-el-Kébir

The RN insists that all cargo ships heading for Spain are searched carefully for contraband...




in Iceland ;)
 
Axis Spain

My view has always been that Spain, along with Ireland, would only join the Axis Allinace once Britain is out of the war. Now, I'm not suggesting some aquatically mammalian happening but the oft-repeated idea of Halifax becoming Prime Minister on 13 May 1940 and suing for peace through Italy or Sweden two weeks later once the scale of the German victory had become clear.

Suppose then that happens - I'm not suggsting at this point that Gibraltar would be handed to Spain any more than Malta would go to Italy or Ulster to Eire. It's not in Berlin's interests to make that kind of peace.

Presumably, the Spanish would then want to make a more significant contribution to the fight against Bolshevism in 1941.

What then ? Well, anything could have happened but let's assume events flow as in OTL and Barbarossa begins on June 22nd 1941. My thought has always been that IF Japan attacks Pearl Harbour on schedule AND the German offensive falters in front of Moscow, Halifax would tear up the Peace Treaty of 1940 and declare war on the Axis in early 1942.

The Spanish might well blockade Gibraltar but there's nothing of any value left by then - the North Africa campaign runs to early 1944 (it started later than in OTL) by which time American and British forces have broken the Afrika Korps.

Do the allies land in Spain ? No, bacause the Pyrenees represent a defensive line and the more direct routes to Berlin lie through Italy, the Adriatic and Northern France.

D-Day, the landing in southern France, is on August 11th 1944 and American, British and Empire forces soon cut German troops off in SW France and Spain. With them are Republican volunteers ready to liberate their homeland from Franco.

The Spanish Army in Russia is destroyed in the fighting after Stalingrad and internal dissent rapidly grows in 1944 and 1945 as Spain is isolated from the rest of the Axis.

On August 6th 1945, an atomic bomb is dropped on Hanover with another three days later on Munich. The Reich dissolves into anarchy and its allies are left isolated. American troops cross into Spain in early September with the Republicans and Madrid is liberated on October 1st 1945.

It will take a further two years for the last embers of Nationalist resistance to be snuffed out and by then a Socialist Government rules in Madrid and Franco is dead by his own hand.

Spain joins NATO and eventually the Common Market and acts in 1952 to overthrow the Salazar dictatorship in Portugal.

Eventually, the Socialist Government falls and a new centrist Government takes over inviting the young Juan Carlos back from exile as King.
 
My view has always been that Spain, along with Ireland, would only join the Axis Allinace once Britain is out of the war. Now, I'm not suggesting some aquatically mammalian happening but the oft-repeated idea of Halifax becoming Prime Minister on 13 May 1940 and suing for peace through Italy or Sweden two weeks later once the scale of the German victory had become clear.

Suppose then that happens - I'm not suggsting at this point that Gibraltar would be handed to Spain any more than Malta would go to Italy or Ulster to Eire. It's not in Berlin's interests to make that kind of peace.

Presumably, the Spanish would then want to make a more significant contribution to the fight against Bolshevism in 1941.

What then ? Well, anything could have happened but let's assume events flow as in OTL and Barbarossa begins on June 22nd 1941. My thought has always been that IF Japan attacks Pearl Harbour on schedule AND the German offensive falters in front of Moscow, Halifax would tear up the Peace Treaty of 1940 and declare war on the Axis in early 1942.

The Spanish might well blockade Gibraltar but there's nothing of any value left by then - the North Africa campaign runs to early 1944 (it started later than in OTL) by which time American and British forces have broken the Afrika Korps.

Do the allies land in Spain ? No, bacause the Pyrenees represent a defensive line and the more direct routes to Berlin lie through Italy, the Adriatic and Northern France.

D-Day, the landing in southern France, is on August 11th 1944 and American, British and Empire forces soon cut German troops off in SW France and Spain. With them are Republican volunteers ready to liberate their homeland from Franco.

The Spanish Army in Russia is destroyed in the fighting after Stalingrad and internal dissent rapidly grows in 1944 and 1945 as Spain is isolated from the rest of the Axis.

On August 6th 1945, an atomic bomb is dropped on Hanover with another three days later on Munich. The Reich dissolves into anarchy and its allies are left isolated. American troops cross into Spain in early September with the Republicans and Madrid is liberated on October 1st 1945.

It will take a further two years for the last embers of Nationalist resistance to be snuffed out and by then a Socialist Government rules in Madrid and Franco is dead by his own hand.

Spain joins NATO and eventually the Common Market and acts in 1952 to overthrow the Salazar dictatorship in Portugal.

Eventually, the Socialist Government falls and a new centrist Government takes over inviting the young Juan Carlos back from exile as King.

If Britian is out of the war then no LL to the British and Soviets and no German DoW on the U.S. after Pearl Harbor.
 
If Britian is out of the war then no LL to the British and Soviets and no German DoW on the U.S. after Pearl Harbor.

The first is of course correct but the second - I'm not so sure. Are you assuming that with Britain out of the war in the summer of 1940, there would be less necessity for Germany, Italy and Japan to formalise their alliance.

Again, I'm less convinced - it was a signal that Germany was already planning to attack the USSR so no reason to suppose it wouldn't have happened anyway.

The question then presupposes whether Japan would have attacked the US as in OTL - would the Germans have tried to get the Japanese to defer the attack - why would anything have been different just because Britain wasn't involved ?

Indeed, one could argue one of two scenarios - either Japan sticks to the OTL plans, attacks British ports in Malaya and Hong Kong and thereby Britain declares war on Japan (NOT Germany) or Japan avoids attacking British possessions and the Royal Navy in the Far East.

America and Japan therefore go to war - it's hard to envisage Germant staying neutral in that conflict.
 
I see the fall of Gibraltar and the Med being turned into an Axis lake as the principal outcomes. However for Hitler, he now has even more European coastline to defend so he's going to spread out his Western armies even more thinly. Would Overlord take place in Iberia instead of France?
Well, there is something to be said for disembarking orderly in Portugal
(allied with England since 1386) and opening a new front from there,
rather than picking a beach to storm.

But one presumes that would happen well before 1944.
 
While I could see an Axis Spain, I don't see him waging war against Portugal. France knew that going into anything but a defensive or short war would pretty much destroy the fragile Spain that he controls. The Spanish army (early 1940) numbered around 900,000, 450,000 in the Basque and Aragon regions which were still fighting, with another 450,000 in Spanish Sahara and Spanish Morocco. The British would seize the weakly defended Canary Islands and use them as a way to "bottle up" the Atlantic. Spain wasn't able to produce the food, or oil needed to sustain itself and Germany wouldn't be able to support them enough. The Spanish navy was a joke compared to the RN at the time and wouldn't be able to offer much assistance.
 
Well an axis Spain would give access to SS-Schutzstaffel to create a spanish front destroying the Operation Torch.Gibaltar would fail and more than that,Germany could win the Afrika Front easily with Spain.Spain could really help with Operation Sea Lion attacking on way of Trafalgar and moving foward with Doenitz in the Coast of Britan.The Spanish troops even could help Goering's aircraft attacking London from East and West acctualy could be brute-force taken the whole Britan.They could improove the Atlantic Wall against the Americans.
 
While I could see an Axis Spain, I don't see him waging war against Portugal.
He may not have a choice. Anglo-Portugese Alliance, remember?

Well an axis Spain would give access to SS-Schutzstaffel to create a spanish front destroying the Operation Torch.Gibaltar would fail and more than that,Germany could win the Afrika Front easily with Spain.Spain could really help with Operation Sea Lion attacking on way of Trafalgar and moving foward with Doenitz in the Coast of Britan.The Spanish troops even could help Goering's aircraft attacking London from East and West acctualy could be brute-force taken the whole Britan.They could improove the Atlantic Wall against the Americans.
Two immediate questions:
1. What Operation Torch?
2. How would a longer Atlantic coast needing defenses improve the Atlantic
Wall?
 

jahenders

Banned
Though not likely, it could have some major effects. Gibraltor would all and you'd have Luftwaffe aircraft able to hit anything near there.

It would probably limit Torch to French and Spanish Morocco as the East and Center Tasks Force would be hit if they tried to enter the Med. The allies progress more slowly in Africa and it takes longer.

An Axis Spain also greatly hinders any allied invasion of Sicily, Italy, or Southern France. They're theoretically possible, but would require ships to enter the Med via the Suez (the LONG way around).

So, I think you might well have the allies attempt an invasion of Southern Spain when the UK convinces the US that no Overlord is possible in 1943, specifically so they can get transports and supplies into the W Med.

If Spain looks weak, it's possible that the Allies might even invade Spain, INSTEAD of Africa in 1942.
 
Even before the USA & Germany are at war, the USA will not sell vital supplies to countries at war with the UK. Yes, there was some jiggery-pokery going on with various US firms and Nazi Germany but the USA gains nothing to speak of economically by selling vital food & oil (and other stuff) to Spain. It is obvious that anything the USA sells to Spain at a minimum relieves the stress on Germany to keep Spain afloat, and some may get transferred to Germany.

If the UK and Germany are not at war (the "Halifax scenario"), but the Axis is at war with the USSR the possibility of the USA selling to Spain, even on credit is much higher. Support to a USSR fighting the Axis with Britain at peace (not occupied) by the USA would, in the 1941 pre-PH scenario, be lukewarm - certainly no LL. Of course, if Japan attacks per OTL and there is no DoW by Germany which would be unlikely if the UK and Germany were not at war, giving much of anything to the USSR while the USA is at war with Japan (which the USSR is not at war with)...
 
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