Perhaps a serious of small crises that go the way of the Prussians (or at least seem to the French) and is the final straw?
How do you trigger the Franco-Prussian War without the Spanish question?
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The Roman spark can be lighted in late 1866, in the 2nd half of 1867 (after the conclusion of the Conference of London) or in spring 1868 as well.
Louis Napoleon would be the aggressor in any case. However to have an Italy much more proactive in gaining Rome requires a better Italian performance in 1866. This better performance would result in a more aggressive Italy, and therefore I would expect the annexation of Rome must come earlier than IOTL. I have excluded the first half of 1867 because it is quite unlikely that the border of the Papal State would be violated while the Powers are negotiating the solution of the Luxembourg crisis.
Louis Napoleon would be the aggressor in any case. However to have an Italy much more proactive in gaining Rome requires a better Italian performance in 1866. This better performance would result in a more aggressive Italy, and therefore I would expect the annexation of Rome must come earlier than IOTL. I have excluded the first half of 1867 because it is quite unlikely that the border of the Papal State would be violated while the Powers are negotiating the solution of the Luxembourg crisis.
I doubt very much that the south German states (which are the overwhelming Catholic majority) were in agreement to aid the Kingdom of Prussia if it attacked France because Napoleon III declared war on the Kingdom of Italy by invading the territories that were still under control of the Pope.
Remember that the alliance between Prussia and those south German states is defensive character, and in this context Prussia is the aggressor for wanting to aid to defend the Kingdom of Italy.
The only possibility I see that could trigger a possible Franco-Prussian war where the south German states fulfilled their defensive alliance with Prussia is that France declared war on Prussia for X reason. However, what do you think of a possible Austro-Prussian conflict after the Ausgleich of 1867 and the successful resolution of the power vacuum after the Spanish revolution of 1868? That could lead to potential conflicts where France declared war on Prussia, so then Bismarck gets the support of the south German states (and not forgetting the expected support of Russia against Austria-Hungary), can trigger a sort of Great War on the European mainland. In that scenario, I doubt that Britain would intervene in favor of one of the sides, as long as it did not affect its European domains (Malta, the Channel Islands and Helgoland), and would take advantage to increase their colonial domains without the hassle of competing with other European states (After all, Britain was at the time that many refer to as the "Splendid Isolation").
From what I've been reading about it, the Austrian political leaders wanted to take up the struggle against Prussia and avenge their defeat at Sadowa, but Hungarians were not willing to pay for another war against the Prussians.
Remember that the alliance between Prussia and those south German states is defensive character, and in this context Prussia is the aggressor for wanting to aid to defend the Kingdom of Italy.
The only possibility I see that could trigger a possible Franco-Prussian war where the south German states fulfilled their defensive alliance with Prussia is that France declared war on Prussia for X reason. However, what do you think of a possible Austro-Prussian conflict after the Ausgleich of 1867 and the successful resolution of the power vacuum after the Spanish revolution of 1868? That could lead to potential conflicts where France declared war on Prussia, so then Bismarck gets the support of the south German states (and not forgetting the expected support of Russia against Austria-Hungary), can trigger a sort of Great War on the European mainland. In that scenario, I doubt that Britain would intervene in favor of one of the sides, as long as it did not affect its European domains (Malta, the Channel Islands and Helgoland), and would take advantage to increase their colonial domains without the hassle of competing with other European states (After all, Britain was at the time that many refer to as the "Splendid Isolation").
From what I've been reading about it, the Austrian political leaders wanted to take up the struggle against Prussia and avenge their defeat at Sadowa, but Hungarians were not willing to pay for another war against the Prussians.
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Napoleon III wasn't that agressive. Since Solferino, he was much reluctant to involve into another war in Europe, instead promoting diplomatic solutions. If war was declared in 1870, that was under the pressure of the warlike public opinion and of the war party within the court (Empress Eugénie and Foreign Minister Gramont), and don't forget that Napoleon III was then a sick man.
Had the Spanish crisis had happened before the elections of 1869, that war would surely not have happened.
One would point at foreign interventions, namely Mexico, but that were more colonial ventures than anything else, and were not the consequence of some warmongering policy like a Napoleon I would have done, but looked more like a prelude to the great age of colonialism.
As for a Italian cause, it's few likely. French continued presence was more a consequence of internal pressure from Catholics than a conviction of Napoleon III who said, answering to one of his ministers who had declared that France would never abandon Rome, ''In politics, one should never say never''.
What's more, since Cavour, the French alliance was a pillar of Italian foreign policy to keep the Austrians in check and in 1866, they didn't enter the war on Prussia's side without Napoleon III's tacit approval (ie French neutrality), the same kind of which allowed them to annex northern Papal states and the Neapolitan Kingdom in 1860.
If you want to have Prussia attacked, maybe you could play with a delayed Polish uprising, causing Russia going to war with Prussia over some clandestine Prussian support to Polish rebels; IOTL, Prussian liberals were seemingly in favour of Polish rebels and the Alvensleben Convention caused them to reject the budget, but Bismarck remained in power due to King William support, but ITTL, Bismarck could elect to support the Polish cause if that allowed to get South German support in some war of defense against Russia.
Had the Spanish crisis had happened before the elections of 1869, that war would surely not have happened.
One would point at foreign interventions, namely Mexico, but that were more colonial ventures than anything else, and were not the consequence of some warmongering policy like a Napoleon I would have done, but looked more like a prelude to the great age of colonialism.
As for a Italian cause, it's few likely. French continued presence was more a consequence of internal pressure from Catholics than a conviction of Napoleon III who said, answering to one of his ministers who had declared that France would never abandon Rome, ''In politics, one should never say never''.
What's more, since Cavour, the French alliance was a pillar of Italian foreign policy to keep the Austrians in check and in 1866, they didn't enter the war on Prussia's side without Napoleon III's tacit approval (ie French neutrality), the same kind of which allowed them to annex northern Papal states and the Neapolitan Kingdom in 1860.
If you want to have Prussia attacked, maybe you could play with a delayed Polish uprising, causing Russia going to war with Prussia over some clandestine Prussian support to Polish rebels; IOTL, Prussian liberals were seemingly in favour of Polish rebels and the Alvensleben Convention caused them to reject the budget, but Bismarck remained in power due to King William support, but ITTL, Bismarck could elect to support the Polish cause if that allowed to get South German support in some war of defense against Russia.
Do you believe the southern German states would support the Prussians in their war against Russia because the Poles are Catholic? I doubt they would go too much out of their way in thinking that Prussia would treat them especially well, given how they and other Catholics in the Rhine and Posen fared.
Here, religion is not the decisive factor, I would say that the whole thing IOTL was more about nationalism. But still, the Polish cause looks to me having been rather popular in Western Europe, so South Germans coming to Prussia rescue would be a natural thing, even more than with France.
Prussia would never attack Russia it´s way to weak and it has very good relations with Russia.
Never say never.
However, the dominant classes in Prussia had on average little reason to help the Poles and were on generally good terms with Russia. Certainly Bismarck sought good relations with the Czar's court.