Yes and no, as Damian noted there was considerable impact of the long distance nationalism, but Slovenia didn't have as influential diaspora as Croatia did, it was Milošević shenanigans, like monetary robbery and economic embargo, that pushed them from ''Yugoslavia needs to be reformed'' to ''we need to get out''. So some reforms might keep the pot from boiling, at least for the time being. Of course the problem is that any reform which satisfies one group/nationality will piss off another group/nationality. Yugoslavia would need a master level compromise maker to make this balancing act work.
How do you imagine a modern Yugoslavia?
- Thread starter Reflection
- Start date
Osman Aga
Banned
Somewhat distinct to most of Europe, not in the EU, but functioning well enough. Something between Russia and Germany. Not too much of a functioning Democracy like in the West but nothing authoritarian either. Very much federalized and a concurrence playing between the Croats and Serbs over the course of Yugoslavia.
It would be petitioning to join the EU (propagated by mostly non-Serbs) with protests by pro-Russian figures (often Serbs) against this. It will have some treaties with the EU.
Population wise... I think between 25-30 million.
It would have one of the best National Squads of the World: Players like Oblak, Modric, Rakitic, Ibrahimovic, Dzeko, Tadic, Xhaka, Pjanic, Mitrovic etc.
Osman Aga
Banned
Not necessarily. If you avoid Serb nationalist to take over and find a way to get more pragmatic figures, Yugoslav Nationalist to power, it could go on. All that is necessary is that the Yugoslav Republics are not frightened by the pro-Serb policies that result in the annexation of provinces into Serb controlled land.
Then you need to solve the situation where the Croats and Slovenes are unhappy about paying more than receiving. Maybe play the EU card to them.
Only in Serbia. In other parts of Yugoslavia, no. Monarchy was even more dysfunctional than socialist federation.
Lots of countries had influential diasporas, including many if the newer member-states of the European Union, but this did not keep them from joining the EU.
If Yugoslavia is incapable of being reformed to the point that it cannot follow the rest of post-Communist Europe into the EU, then it will break.
Last edited:
While the ethnic reasons eventually took the spotlight due to what dissolution of Yugoslavia descended into the reason why it fell apart and why ethnic reasons were allowed to surface were economic.
Yugoslavia was probably the only socialist/communist country that had rampant unemployment, even after opening its borders to allow its citizens to work abroad. While the exact numbers are hard to define it is estimated around a million people worked abroad or 5% of the entire population. With these people out of the labour pool unemployment rarely went below 10% and during the 80's went above 15%. From those who did work inside the country about 1/5 was underemployed. To top all that youth unemployment was regularly over 50% in 80's.
When you mix in fuel and electricity shortages with a lack of flour, coffee or washing powder you can see how there was an extremely fertile ground for ethnic players to cause a shitshow.
So to save Yugoslavia one needs to solve the economic puzzle. If you do that you not only butterfly the collapse but also provide a solid economic footing for the future. While it is expected that heavy industry Yugoslavia was known for would have to go away, year-round tourism and developed arms industry could be cornerstones of future economic prosperity.
Furthermore, before the economy took a nosedive the Yugoslav identity was at its highest it had ever been. People who were born in post-war Yugoslavia were starting to have kids of their own and the percentage of the population that only "knew" SFRJ was rapidly increasing. If the trends held by the year 2000 the percentage of those younger than 25 who identified as Yugoslavs could have reached 50%.
A modern Yugoslavia that solves its economic troubles would have a slow transition towards democracy with the KPY being still an important player if they would be the ones behind the economic "miracle". The country would have joined the EU during the "eastward push" in the early 2000's. Its population would be at about 22 000 000 as the post demographic transition would kick in, though a better economic situation could encourage immigration from 3rd world countries Yugoslavia had good relations with somewhat offsetting this. Economically speaking SFRY was 25th by GDP in the world before the nosedive began. Whether they would manage to break into G20 by 2020 40 years later is questionable considering in 2020 only G20 members with smaller populations than surviving Yugoslavia are Netherlands and Switzerland. But the economy of a surviving Yugoslavia should be able to compete in size if not in GDP/c with that of Sweden or Belgium, maybe Poland.
Today area of Yugoslavia has a combined economic production of around 210 billion USD which puts it at rank 50 by GDP. Considering everything the region went through in the last 40 years it isn't that hard to imagine an area that is considerably more developed and prosperous.
Yugoslavia was probably the only socialist/communist country that had rampant unemployment, even after opening its borders to allow its citizens to work abroad. While the exact numbers are hard to define it is estimated around a million people worked abroad or 5% of the entire population. With these people out of the labour pool unemployment rarely went below 10% and during the 80's went above 15%. From those who did work inside the country about 1/5 was underemployed. To top all that youth unemployment was regularly over 50% in 80's.
When you mix in fuel and electricity shortages with a lack of flour, coffee or washing powder you can see how there was an extremely fertile ground for ethnic players to cause a shitshow.
So to save Yugoslavia one needs to solve the economic puzzle. If you do that you not only butterfly the collapse but also provide a solid economic footing for the future. While it is expected that heavy industry Yugoslavia was known for would have to go away, year-round tourism and developed arms industry could be cornerstones of future economic prosperity.
Furthermore, before the economy took a nosedive the Yugoslav identity was at its highest it had ever been. People who were born in post-war Yugoslavia were starting to have kids of their own and the percentage of the population that only "knew" SFRJ was rapidly increasing. If the trends held by the year 2000 the percentage of those younger than 25 who identified as Yugoslavs could have reached 50%.
A modern Yugoslavia that solves its economic troubles would have a slow transition towards democracy with the KPY being still an important player if they would be the ones behind the economic "miracle". The country would have joined the EU during the "eastward push" in the early 2000's. Its population would be at about 22 000 000 as the post demographic transition would kick in, though a better economic situation could encourage immigration from 3rd world countries Yugoslavia had good relations with somewhat offsetting this. Economically speaking SFRY was 25th by GDP in the world before the nosedive began. Whether they would manage to break into G20 by 2020 40 years later is questionable considering in 2020 only G20 members with smaller populations than surviving Yugoslavia are Netherlands and Switzerland. But the economy of a surviving Yugoslavia should be able to compete in size if not in GDP/c with that of Sweden or Belgium, maybe Poland.
Today area of Yugoslavia has a combined economic production of around 210 billion USD which puts it at rank 50 by GDP. Considering everything the region went through in the last 40 years it isn't that hard to imagine an area that is considerably more developed and prosperous.
Agreed. Tantalizingly, it came so close.
I do think that it would make sense to compare Yugoslavia with Spain, demographically and otherwise. Slovenia had become a destination for immigrants as early as the 1960s (from elsewhere in the former Yugoslavia) while Croatia was starting to become this in the 1980s. If we are assuming a Yugoslavia that follows more-or-less the economic trajectory of central Europe, then I would bet that you would see first a surge of emigration then a sustained growth of immigration.
Where from? I think Yugoslavia's Balkan neighbours are obvious. The ties of Yugoslavia with Albania are hardly weaker than those of Albania with Italy and Greece, while Bulgaria and Romania are just next door
Vladimir Gligorov back in 2002 noted that the dissolution of Yugoslavia led to permanent relative losses of income. Even Croatia went from two-thirds of Slovenia's GDP per capita to half, while Serbia and Vojvodina and Macedonia—never mind the actual conflict zones—saw sharper drops. There has been some recovery, relationship be and absolute, but not much; IIRC Serbia before COVID-19 might only have just then recovered its 1990 GDP. A lost generation, literally.
Why is Slovenia so much wealthier than other Balkan nations?
Randy McDonald's answer: The wealth of Slovenia, relative to the other successor states of Yugoslavia and to the wider Balkans, is real, and goes back a long way. I talked about this in my answer to Why do Slovenia and Croatia have significantly higher GDP per capita than other ex-Yugoslavia coun...
Assuming that Slovenia's economy evolves as OTL and that the same GDP per capita gaps of the 1989s survive, the whole region will be much richer. Croatia will compare to Poland and Serbia to Hungary.
Osman Aga
Banned
Which would be a GDP per capita of around €10,000 if my calculations are correct.
I do know that a share of Yugoslav workers came to the Netherlands but unlike the Moroccans and Turks, many did not stay in the Netherlands. Too bad... They are nice people though.
If we had a Yugoslavia that managed its twin political and economic transitions, it could become a notable economic power. There was a lot of economic potential that never really got fulfilled: Absent wars and sanctions, I can imagine the automotive sector of Yugoslavia enjoying the same take-off that the comparable sectors of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and even Romania enjoyed.
There would also be knock-on effects with Yugoslavia's neighbours. If they did not border upon a black hole but rather a functional and prosperous economy, they would all do well. Romania and Bulgaria particularly would profit from not being isolated from Europe, but even prosperous countries like Italy and Austria and Greece would benefit from this functionality.
There would also be knock-on effects with Yugoslavia's neighbours. If they did not border upon a black hole but rather a functional and prosperous economy, they would all do well. Romania and Bulgaria particularly would profit from not being isolated from Europe, but even prosperous countries like Italy and Austria and Greece would benefit from this functionality.
There is an additional synergistic element in the fact the infrastructure of Yugoslavia was constructed for federal rather than state needs ensuring integration and cooperation across state borders. Then you need to take into account avoidance of expenses incurred from constructing independent infrastructural networks and you end up in a place that feels like fantasy compared to what we experienced historically.