1) Riding on the momentum of Watergate, Bill Clinton beats John Paul Hammerschmidt 51-49, and reelected by increasingly large margins in 1976 and 1978.
2) In 1980, the three term congressman is elected Governor (still keeping his charisma, but not having the truck tax baggage on him like 1980OTL)
3) Wins reelection in 1982 (AR had two year terms back then)
4) With a decade of governing experience, Bill Clinton shocks Arkansas political observers by declining to run for reelection, and announces his intention to run for President
5) Clinton connects with voters, offering a vision of new ideas, and detailed policy proposals. With long white-paper proposals and an ability to talk at length on any topic, no one would ever pose him a "where's the beef?" type line in a debate. In an upset, Clinton beats Mondale in a long primary battle.
6) Reagan is space-y in the first debate, Clinton starts to climb in the polls. In the second debate, Reagan uses 'my opponent's youth and inexperience line' on Clinton, who chuckles, and asks Americans what kind of experience they want, and lists a series of Reagan failures. Clinton gets within 5 points of Reagan.
7) INSERT OCTOBER SURPRISE
8) Clinton wins