Since, to borrow a phrase, nobody has yet invented the foolproof fool...massive attacks of stupidity are always possible. Japan attacking Pearl Harbor, frex. Hitler declaring war on the U.S. Decca not signing The Beatles. Ben Affleck agreeing to do "Gigli".

Halle agreeing to do "Catwoman".

Jerry Bruckheimer for paying for Randall Wallace's screenplay to "Pearl Harbor".



(And Michael Bay for agreeing to film it.

)
There's a difference to unexpected, tho. The Channel Dash relied on boldnes, daring, & luck. So did the 1st SSB ("Devil's Brigade") climbing...where was it?


Sometimes, fantastic luck all goes one way. Midway, frex.
BlondieBC said:
If humans had a 1000 year life span in Japan, no village, much less a nuclear power plants, would have been located in the flood zone.
You don't even need 1000 year lifespan, just, IDK, a bit of common sense.

You can see river flood zones in the U.S. quite easily.
Don't build there. People do anyway...

Or on the edges of beaches...
BlondieBC said:
BTW, Scalpa Flow was tried at least twice in WW1, so the Germans were just repeating past plans and it worked better in WW2.
Successfully at least once IIRC, by
U-18.
I Blame Communism said:
And would the things available in the 1890s - effectively instanteous communications, say - not have seemed quite astonishing 120 years before that?
Technology sometimes goes back but mostly forward, and like hell had things changed little since Rome. They had witnessed the creation of the world economy. The really transformative decades were the 1840s-70s, and they didn't spring from nowhere either.
The last 120yr were a product of 100 or more before that. Seed drillls meaning agricultural surpluses meaning more money meaning investment in infrastructure. Naval expansion meaning wood shortages meaning a need for new kinds of fuel meaning development of coke & coal (plus a fortuituous confluence of coal & iron in Britain

). Which drives innovations in metals production, meaning need for pumps to keep water out of mines, meaning steam engines meaning condensing engines, which also means better cannon (precision boring), which...
Next time you think this was ASB, look at James Burke's
The Day the Universe Changed &
Connections. They're very, very instructive on just how knock-ons can come out of nowhere.