How do ASB OTL events even happen?

Unlikely events happen. ASB ones? Not by most standards. However, yes, the truth is often stranger than fiction for the aforementioned reasons given via quotes of well-known authors.
 

Devvy

Donor
The United States was all but assured to one day become a great power, the politicians who steered us out of isolationism and into interventionism made us a superpower.

To hop in late to this thread, this kind of thing always reminds me of Napolean when he sold Louisiana to the US.

"This accession of territory affirms forever the power of the United States, and I have given England a maritime rival who sooner or later will humble her pride."

At the time, that must of seemed a rather ASB notion to have, but 200ish years later and it seems like extraordinary forward thinking :)
 
Yet by the time it happened, many of his countrymen probably (even if shortsightedly) did not welcome it. Many Frenchmen now are as uncomfortable with a powerful America as with a powerful Britain.
 

Cook

Banned
Would the idea of Hitler (who disliked royalty, was not fond of feminists and less than enthusiastic about people of the Jewish persuasion) having a spy who was a duchess with Jewish ancestors be considered ASB?

Or Zionists doing deals with the Nazis?
 
ASB = in my opinion is the events on the incredibly bottom or top end of the probability curve of events happening. It's not magic and its not aliens.
 
Since, to borrow a phrase, nobody has yet invented the foolproof fool...massive attacks of stupidity are always possible. Japan attacking Pearl Harbor, frex. Hitler declaring war on the U.S. Decca not signing The Beatles. Ben Affleck agreeing to do "Gigli".:p Halle agreeing to do "Catwoman".:p Jerry Bruckheimer for paying for Randall Wallace's screenplay to "Pearl Harbor".:eek::eek::p (And Michael Bay for agreeing to film it.:rolleyes:)

There's a difference to unexpected, tho. The Channel Dash relied on boldnes, daring, & luck. So did the 1st SSB ("Devil's Brigade") climbing...where was it?:confused::eek: Sometimes, fantastic luck all goes one way. Midway, frex.
BlondieBC said:
If humans had a 1000 year life span in Japan, no village, much less a nuclear power plants, would have been located in the flood zone.
You don't even need 1000 year lifespan, just, IDK, a bit of common sense.:rolleyes: You can see river flood zones in the U.S. quite easily. Don't build there. People do anyway...:rolleyes: Or on the edges of beaches...:rolleyes:
BlondieBC said:
BTW, Scalpa Flow was tried at least twice in WW1, so the Germans were just repeating past plans and it worked better in WW2.
Successfully at least once IIRC, by U-18.
I Blame Communism said:
And would the things available in the 1890s - effectively instanteous communications, say - not have seemed quite astonishing 120 years before that?

Technology sometimes goes back but mostly forward, and like hell had things changed little since Rome. They had witnessed the creation of the world economy. The really transformative decades were the 1840s-70s, and they didn't spring from nowhere either.
The last 120yr were a product of 100 or more before that. Seed drillls meaning agricultural surpluses meaning more money meaning investment in infrastructure. Naval expansion meaning wood shortages meaning a need for new kinds of fuel meaning development of coke & coal (plus a fortuituous confluence of coal & iron in Britain:rolleyes:). Which drives innovations in metals production, meaning need for pumps to keep water out of mines, meaning steam engines meaning condensing engines, which also means better cannon (precision boring), which...

Next time you think this was ASB, look at James Burke's The Day the Universe Changed & Connections. They're very, very instructive on just how knock-ons can come out of nowhere.
 
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then why is this forum so hard on ASB events. One once in a while doesn't hurt, and might make more statistical sense instead of sticking to to the middle ground.
 
The East India company is probably the closest real life gets to ASB (the reason we can't actually call it ASB is because the small, individual causes were reasonably probable even if the end result looks weird).

Also late 20th century/ early 21st century Japan. The world's 2nd biggest (or 3rd as of late) economy, with quite a decent-sized population and few natural resources to boot, having such a pacifistic constitution would seem pretty hard to believe for people from any other era.
 
The East India company is probably the closest real life gets to ASB (the reason we can't actually call it ASB is because the small, individual causes were reasonably probable even if the end result looks weird).

It doesn't take an ASB to make a coin flip land on heads 100 times in a row; it just takes enough people flipping enough coins.
 
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