If Churchill remains as PM, it will still be "never surrender". If he is out, a settlement becomes at least a theoretical possibility. IMHO the only possible settlement that would fly would be no demands on the Empire, no German troops in the UK, no British disarmament, return of all POWS. If the Germans demand return of their WWI colonies, if they demand some level of British disarmament, if they want German military presence anywhere in the Empire, if they demand reparations, these will be unacceptable conditions. The reality is that losing the BoB won't allow the Germans to mount SEALION in fall 1940. IF this cause the UK to lose the support from the USA it had OTL, and IF the dislocations caused by loss of the BoB cause the RN to do less well against the U-boats and peripheral areas like North Africa to do less well, AND the Germans put BARBAROSSA on hold they might be able to put enough together to pull off SEALION the following summer. Maybe.
One political result of the UK losing the BoB might be that the pro-British element in Yugoslavia does not pull the coup it did OTL to get rid of the pro-German regent. That would mean no need for a German invasion of Yugoslavia.
One political result of the UK losing the BoB might be that the pro-British element in Yugoslavia does not pull the coup it did OTL to get rid of the pro-German regent. That would mean no need for a German invasion of Yugoslavia.