How could the world skip the industrial age?

NapoleonXIV

Banned
How could the world leapfrog the Industrial Revolution to the Post Industrial Revolution and go straight from 18thc Agriculture to 21stc computers and plastics, without the intervening century of Steel and Machinery? Or is that possible at all?

Just as one idea, could Franklin have anticipated Faraday in the development of electricity, and could Faraday have then anticipated Tesla and Maxwell anticipate Steinmetz? This gives us Radio and an electric grid by the 1840's and if we then skip what most tech historians now see as a 50 year sidetracking caused by the vacuum tube we get transistors at the same time; and this gives us IC's and computers by 1865.

The question is brought about by looking at Ireland, where a booming Information Age industry is supported by what a nice place Ireland remains in an environmental sense, largely because of draconian and oppressive English policies which tried to keep Ireland poor by forbidding most heavy industrial development.
 
Napoleon, what are ICs?

New Scientist magazine 20th August 2005 printed a series of "What If?" ideas based on turning points in science. One ("No Dark Satanic Mills") was an earlier development of electricity, with a Faraday-like genius in the early 18th Century and the electric motor being invented in 1740.

Electric motors could be powered by watermills or windmills, with gearing used to provide the fast movement necessary to generate electricity. Alternatively, steam engines could power turbines.

They suggest that in this timeline some things would have developed slower and some faster.

Slower:
The national grid (more localised power and self-sufficiency due to more wind turbines).
Factories, mass production (due to small workshops having electric power).

Faster:
Cities (electric subways and trams).
Electric automobiles, lighting and cooking.

One problem I can see is that if wind turbines are going to be important there will have to be some method of storing power.

Isn't Trolleyword a timeline with no Industrial Revolution? One of the few timelines in which scientific development takes an alternate path - I wish there were more of them.
 
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Isn't it arguable that a significant portion of the world already has skipped the industrial age and went straight into the post-industrial age, besides Ireland? I'm thinking primarily of the Asian tigers like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, etc. Plus, even though some areas of the country participated in the industrial age, the majority of China and India's population did not, and are now looking poised to dominate the post-industrial age. Interesting to think about...

As for your actual topic, you and Akiyama hit the nail on the head- basically some Great Man anticipates a field of science we didnt develop til later.
 
Don´t we though need the age of steel for something first? I mean don´t we need considerable wealth and industry to create a demand for computers?
 
Well, in my Historia Mundi timeline, my analogue to Heron experiments with electricity instead of steam. Nothing's come of it yet, but I plan on having electricity develop instead of steam power.

Oh, and I was thinking that this would lead to more localized power systems, I'm glad that that essay has the same idea. Means I'm probably right. I like being right. :D
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
DominusNovus said:
Well, in my Historia Mundi timeline, my analogue to Heron experiments with electricity instead of steam. Nothing's come of it yet, but I plan on having electricity develop instead of steam power.

Oh, and I was thinking that this would lead to more localized power systems, I'm glad that that essay has the same idea. Means I'm probably right. I like being right. :D

There are considerable advantages to localized power systems but one big disadvantage is cost. The U shaped curve of electricity is considerably deep (meaning that the cost of generating one kilowatt is about the same as generating several thousand).

This seems to dictate big suppliers but there are other factors. The lack of a really practical way to store electricity, coupled with an extreme and unpredictable variation in demand ,along with the fact that suppliers can't really share wires on the local level; leads to an almost irresistable tendency to at least small regional, and even national, monopoly, once it is known how to transmit electricity over distances readily.

This is one of the reasons that electricity supply has grown up as a system of small regional monopolys up until now. (and will remain so in actuality into the future. The present "deregulation" being seen in some areas is actually a highly artificial system based on several legal and technical fictions and innovations and imposed top down by government fiat)

Imposing such a system over the world of the early 18thc could be very interesting. What effect would it have on Adam Smith to have to deal with the power company?
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
NapoleonXIV said:
This is one of the reasons that electricity supply has grown up as a system of small regional monopolys up until now. (and will remain so in actuality into the future. The present "deregulation" being seen in some areas is actually a highly artificial system based on several legal and technical fictions and innovations and imposed top down by government fiat)

This is so OT, but how big is a "small regional monopolys?"

The Nordic countries have the last years shared a common free marked for electricity

That is the generation part, not the ownership of grid lines, mind you :)
 

Shope

Banned
If you have direct current devices (motor/generators), you have heavy industry. Without electricity, you can't have "post-industrialism."

One of the first things people will do with DC devices is to power spinning wheels. This will lead to powerlooms--and industrialism.

Maybe if you can find a way to develop alternating current first (AC motors are much less efficient for most heavy jobs, hence they weren't used very often--until recently--in industrial applications), you can skip the industrial revolution.

Alternating current is actually a little bit easier to generate--because you don't need slip rings and brushes. Therefore, it might be used to power lights and fans and pumps, enhancing quality-of-life and giving people more opportunity to think about other advancements.
 
Akiyama said:
New Scientist magazine 20th August 2005 printed a series of "What If?" ideas based on turning points in science. One ("No Dark Satanic Mills") was an earlier development of electricity, with a Faraday-like genius in the early 18th Century and the electric motor being invented in 1740.
Here's the scenario given in the New Scientist article:
EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY scientists thought of electricity and magnetism as substances, "imponderable fluids" whose particles were too small and subtle to be detected by ordinary instruments. In their eyes the two fluids were utterly separate and distinct. It was no more possible to transform electricity into magnetism than turn water into wine (without divine assistance, anyway).

English chemist and physicist Michael Faraday saw it differently. Early in the 1820s, Hans Christian Ørsted and André-Marie Ampère had shown that an electric current moving through a wire generated a magnetic field around the wire. Building on their work, Faraday showed in 1831 that the reverse was also true: moving a wire through a magnetic field creates an electric current in the wire. It was Faraday who drew the revolutionary conclusion that electricity and magnetism were two manifestations of a single phenomenon, and it was also Faraday who recognised the technological implications. The use of an electric current to generate a magnetic field became the basis of the electric motor, and the use of magnetic fields to create an electric current became the basis of the electric generator.

Faraday's conceptual breakthrough happened when it did for identifiable reasons. One was the invention of the battery, which could provide a steady flow of electricity. Another was the Romantic movement, which promoted a holistic view of the world that encouraged scientists to consider that seemingly discrete phenomena might be connected. Suppose, however, that a similar set of causes had come together a century earlier. What if some Enlightenment-era Faraday in a powdered wig had made the crucial breakthrough a century earlier? What if electric generators and motors had been on hand before the industrial revolution began?

In this alternate timeline, the first electric motors would probably have arrived on the market sometime in the 1740s - a time when the still-new steam engine was used only in a few niche applications like mine drainage. Potential users would, therefore, have judged electric motors not against steam engines but against the power sources that had served for centuries: wind and water for heavy-duty work, human and animal muscle for everything else. Especially when judged against muscle power, electric motors would offer obvious advantages - compactness, quiet operation and the ability to work steadily for hours with no need for food, water or rest. In the 1740s and for decades afterwards, steam engines had none of those virtues and were more expensive to boot. Electric motors would, therefore, have been adopted more widely and more quickly than steam.

The electric motors of the 1740s would have been small and quiet enough to operate in a modest-sized workshop. Opportunities to apply them there would have abounded. In the textile industry alone, their rotating shafts could have driven spinning wheels, yarn winders and knitting machines. Elsewhere, they could have powered blacksmiths' blowers, cabinet-makers' drills, potters' wheels or rope-makers' hemp-twisting cranks. The means to drive generators to power the motors was already at hand: waterwheels or windmills. The principal difference between a "generating mill", designed to turn a light electricity generator's shaft rapidly, and a traditional grinding mill, designed to turn a heavy stone slowly, would have involved new gear ratios that, once worked out, could have been replicated easily by any experienced millwright. Once operating, a single generating mill could have served many customers who located, or relocated, their workshops nearby.

The steam-driven industrial revolution that actually took place in the final third of the 18th century emphasised centralisation. Even the most sophisticated steam engines of the time were so large, expensive and fuel-hungry that to use them efficiently, you needed large factories. The electrically driven industrial revolution that might have taken place in the late 18th century would, at least at first, have been inherently decentralised. Small, inexpensive electric motors could have been readily integrated into existing workshops. Larger factories would doubtless have followed, but they would have been an option rather than a technological and economic necessity.

An industrial revolution rooted in electric power rather than steam would also have had effects beyond the workshop. In our world, the electricity distribution system developed after, and in imitation of, the distribution system for natural gas. Electric power was produced at large centralised facilities and distributed to homes and businesses through a branching network of wires. However, had electricity come into widespread use in the mid-18th century, there would have been no such model to emulate.

The provision of electricity might have been organised more like the provision of heat, with those in the countryside opting for self-sufficiency (a waterwheel, windmill or small boiler-and-turbine unit to run a generator, say) while those in cities could have chosen their supplier from one of several competing neighbourhood sources, as they did for coal deliveries. Small, localised power grids might have become the rule, and large, city-spanning ones the rare exception.

The longer-term effects of an electrified industrial revolution would have been profound. The lateral sprawl of the world's major cities and the rise of the suburb - driven by the electric subway and tram - would have begun far earlier and possibly progressed further than in our world. The spread of electric lighting and, in its wake, electrical home appliances would also have begun earlier. The electric automobile as personal transportation would have prospered and maybe even evolved into a mature technology before the invention of the internal combustion engine. Gas lamps and gas stoves might well have been stillborn - why build an expensive and potentially explosive system of gasworks and mains if existing electrical systems could do the job? Cities built without networks of gas pipes would have been less prone to burn in the event of catastrophic damage, as San Francisco did after the 1906 earthquake. The absence of a city-wide electrical grid would, in turn, make massive power outages a virtual impossibility.

Would it all have produced a better world? Perhaps not, but it is tantalising to contemplate an industrial revolution whose hallmarks were not smoke, grime and the hiss of steam power but the quiet whirr of electric motors and the glow of pure, bright light.
Most of the other scenarios described in that article seemed pretty silly to me (no science without Isaac Newton, ever! Eco-friendly Nazi world which humanely allows unwanted ethnic groups to emigrate to space stations!), so although I don't know enough to judge the technological and economic plausibility of this scenario, I'd take it with a grain of salt.
 
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Maybe I should've done that in my Chaos TL, where the Chinese use electricity for electroplating and the Russians first copy this and later invent the telegraph. From the telegraph it's not that far a step to generators and so on, and in Russia you could build water power plants at the big rivers.

But there's one point: How do you transport lots of people and goods, and how do you transport them fast? Without Ind.Rev. you have neither railroad nor cars... it'd be a situation we never had IOTL: People might have electricity in their houses, they'd get news from all over the world by telegraph, maybe they even have computers or "internet", but traveling 1000 miles would still be an adventure...
 

Hendryk

Banned
Napoleon, what are ICs?

New Scientist magazine 20th August 2005 printed a series of "What If?" ideas based on turning points in science. One ("No Dark Satanic Mills") was an earlier development of electricity, with a Faraday-like genius in the early 18th Century and the electric motor being invented in 1740.

Electric motors could be powered by watermills or windmills, with gearing used to provide the fast movement necessary to generate electricity. Alternatively, steam engines could power turbines.

They suggest that in this timeline some things would have developed slower and some faster.

Slower:
The national grid (more localised power and self-sufficiency due to more wind turbines).
Factories, mass production (due to small workshops having electric power).

Faster:
Cities (electric subways and trams).
Electric automobiles, lighting and cooking.

One problem I can see is that if wind turbines are going to be important there will have to be some method of storing power.
This looks like a good idea. I'd like to see a full-fledged TL in which both the coal and oil paradigms were skipped, making for a presumably cleaner world.
 
But there's one point: How do you transport lots of people and goods, and how do you transport them fast? Without Ind.Rev. you have neither railroad nor cars... it'd be a situation we never had IOTL: People might have electricity in their houses, they'd get news from all over the world by telegraph, maybe they even have computers or "internet", but traveling 1000 miles would still be an adventure...

Trains existed before locomotives- eventually somebody would come with idea of replacing the horses with electric motor. But this would need national inerest for long grids and larger power plants.
 

Hendryk

Banned
I wonder: could you finangle something with Qi and electricity?
Who knows? In OTL, the alchemical tinkering of Taoist scholars enabled them to discover gunpowder. It's not inconceivable to have a school of research focus on lifeforce and eventually figure out how electricity can be mechanically generated--and once that breakthrough has been made, it wouldn't be long until someone puts all those water mills to good use.
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
Im a little uncertain if it woulf be possible to exploit electricity without having an industrial revolution first. You certainly need to develope some basis in machinery and electricity engeneering.

The equipment and machinery needed to produce generators and electrical components is relative advanced
 
According to some historians, the sugar mills in the Caribbean were the "missing link" between older machines and other complex objects (like pocket watches), and those built in the Industrial Revolution. Would that step sugar mill -> electrical generators be possible at all?
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
According to some historians, the sugar mills in the Caribbean were the "missing link" between older machines and other complex objects (like pocket watches), and those built in the Industrial Revolution. Would that step sugar mill -> electrical generators be possible at all?

Are you asking me :confused:

If so, I dont know. Have not heard about either that theory nor about those Sugarmills... :eek:
 
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