How could the US have been balkanized in the event of a Confederate victory?

I really like the idea of a Southern victory resulting in several independent nations in OTL USA's borders, but I don't know enough about this era or its politics to say what they might have been?

Maybe a Californian Republic and then an independent Mormon state for starters?
 
I don't see any reason why would USA balkanise due victorius CSA. But if there is some other regions which secede from USA these are probably California and Deseret. But even that I don't see being very plausible.
 
I don't see any reason why would USA balkanise due victorius CSA. But if there is some other regions which secede from USA these are probably California and Deseret. But even that I don't see being very plausible.

I just thought maybe that the CSA's successful secession would set a precedent, showing other states and territories they could secede over grievances with Washington.
 
I just thought maybe that the CSA's successful secession would set a precedent, showing other states and territories they could secede over grievances with Washington.

Well, there should be some reason for secession. Hardly any state secede only because it can.
 
There would have to be a movement that would be born from defeat. Kind of like the story of Crimson skies, but that was because of the Depression
 
Perhaps a Great Lakes Republic in the old northwest. As it was Indiana was being ruled by martial law in 1864. Perhaps Cali and Deseret(Utah+) go their own way. Texas soon splits from the Confederacy perhaps claiming Oklahoma/Kansas/New Mexico/Arizona. New England joins Canada as a Brit Dominion. Washington/Oregon seek Dominion status to protect them for Deseret. Kansas/Oklahoma/New Mexico/Arizona are absorbed by Texas. Missouri/Kentucky/Delaware/Maryland join the Confederacy. West Virginia is reabsorbed by Virginia. The USA is reduced to a three star flag and a rump nation.The plains and mountain west are divided between Canada, The Great Lakes Republic, Texas, Deseret and California.
 
Last edited:

Anaxagoras

Banned
Well, assuming that a Confederate victory results in a binding peace treaty between the United States and Confederate States, than the constitutionality of secession is implicitly recognized. Perhaps the United States would push to ban future attempts at secession, but now that would require a constitutional amendment.

I do think that the Confederacy will certainly balkanize a bit. The moment oil is discovered in Texas, the Lone Star State will happily wave goodbye. Louisiana, Arkansas and the Indian Territory (if it is part of the Confederacy) might be tempted to go along with it.

Utah has a clearly distinct identity, a culture of wanting to be left alone, and a legacy of intense distrust of the United States government, so there is certainly a motive for secession there.

There were some discussions for the creation of a Pacific Republic during the secession crisis, mostly by Southern or pro-Southern settlers. But while they were more than the ramblings of a few silly individuals, they were not a large enough portion of the population to get any serious traction. As the years pass after the war, though, there's no telling how political and social events would transpire. And if the Mormons do secede to form a separate nation, it might create a psychological and perhaps actual barrier between the Pacific coast and the rest of the United States, which could encourage the growth of a separate identity.

On a side note, this CS Victory tread has been up for more than seven hours and TFSmith hasn't shown up with his infographic yet. What's going on?
 
The US government becomes even weaker. Too terrified of secession it can't accomplish anything. People start wondering why they should pay attention to Washington at all. The various states start breaking away as the central government is seen as useless. Democracy is likely to be seen as a weak system of government that inevitably winds up in civil war or chaos. Since the CSA is unlikely to be any better off this is particularly likely and it breaks up as well. Military dictatorships, proto-fascist dictatorships (particularly down south), Communist dictatorships and possibly even monarchies become the norm.
 
It would only happen because of a major national trauma. Something that causes the national government to lose all credibility and ability to govern. Like the loss of a war followed by a revolution. There is no historical basis for random regions of the country to consider themselves separate nations. Even the Mormon conception of themselves as a different people from Protestant Americans was only half formed. The south considered itself different because its society was radically different. There's nothing comparable with any other region of the country.
 
Utah is the most likely candidate to go next with or without chunks of neighboring territories/OTL states, California had been talking about doing so as they lacked a national railroad but played such a large part in the gold-back finances of Washington's activities. Cascadia/Oregon would be thinly settled and could also be plucked under the right circumstances, and there is only a remote possibility of a Commonwealth of New England emerging after the American Civil War. but I think there is a solid core of a United States less likely to break up from the Rockies to the Atlantic bounded by the Ohio, Potomac, and Missouri Rivers (most likely including the whole of Missouri and Kansas) to the OTL border with Canada.
 
I don't see the USA being Balkanized if the CSA gains independence. In fact, the passage of a constitutional amendment specifically PROHIBITING secession being passed. The success of the CSA does not legally validate secession, it merely is the result of the USA losing a war. IMO the US is likely to come down very hard and very quickly on any secession talk. Utah might want to break free, but the reality is they are surrounded by the USA and absent intervention by an outside power can't win. While in a scenario of a USA-CSA war (like the Turtledove series) the CSA might help the Mormons to make life more difficult for the USA, in a scenario where the CSA wants to have at least decent relations with the USA for economic and other reasons, why piss them off. Certainly the CSA, which is even in the context of the 1860's is more "evangelical" than the north, is not ideologically inclined to be close to the Mormons.

On the other hand, the CSA which is based on states rights and has a "right" of secession, has a good deal more potential to fragment than the USA. various states/sections of the CSA are less than united to begin with, and have some differences likely to be magnified in the future.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The success of the CSA does not legally validate secession, it merely is the result of the USA losing a war.

But if the United States signs a peace treaty with the Confederate States, it is legally acknowledging the existence of the Confederate States. Ergo, it is recognizing that the Confederate States seceded from the Union. The constitutionality of secession was murky before the war, so anyone who was inclined towards secession would feel more justified in its constitutionality after the war than before it.

On the other hand, the CSA which is based on states rights and has a "right" of secession, has a good deal more potential to fragment than the USA.

Quite possibly.
 
But if the United States signs a peace treaty with the Confederate States, it is legally acknowledging the existence of the Confederate States. Ergo, it is recognizing that the Confederate States seceded from the Union. The constitutionality of secession was murky before the war, so anyone who was inclined towards secession would feel more justified in its constitutionality after the war than before it.



Quite possibly.

Until they actually try it. Then they will find that the CSA army will act like it did in West Virginia and East Tennesee when they tried to secede.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
You need to explain this:

I really like the idea of a Southern victory resulting in several independent nations in OTL USA's borders, but I don't know enough about this era or its politics to say what they might have been? Maybe a Californian Republic and then an independent Mormon state for starters?

You need to explain this:

"... a Southern victory..."

The competing economic/ demographic/ military correlation of forces?

The politics inherent in the 1860, 1862, and 1864 US elections?

How, exactly, do you get the foundation for your what if?

Best,
 
The confederacy is the one in danger of breaking apart. When the boll weevil arrives in Texas in the 1890s, it will weaken the slavery system. The economy of Texas will have the opportunity to diversify. This will create a set of interests in Texas at odds with the confederate government. The conditions for separatism would be right.
 

Spengler

Banned
But if the United States signs a peace treaty with the Confederate States, it is legally acknowledging the existence of the Confederate States. Ergo, it is recognizing that the Confederate States seceded from the Union. The constitutionality of secession was murky before the war, so anyone who was inclined towards secession would feel more justified in its constitutionality after the war than before it.



Quite possibly.
Probably creates a reaction within the USA to stop such a event happening again. Hell ou might have the USA become more centralized earlier.
 
Top