How Could the CCP Win Without the Japanese Invasion of Manchuria?

Historians Speculate that without Japanese interference, the Chinese Civil War would have become a stalemate. Part of the CCP's victory was owed to the Soviets driving the Japanese out of Manchuria and North Korea, which allowed the communists to establish themselves more in Northern China. How could Mao and the CCP defeat the "corrupt and incompetent" Kuomintang?
 
Historians Speculate that without Japanese interference, the Chinese Civil War would have become a stalemate. Part of the CCP's victory was owed to the Soviets driving the Japanese out of Manchuria and North Korea, which allowed the communists to establish themselves more in Northern China. How could Mao and the CCP defeat the "corrupt and incompetent" Kuomintang?

Is this a 'no WWII' timeline? Because there's no WWII without a Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

In that case, the KMT would easily win.
 
Is this a 'no WWII' timeline? Because there's no WWII without a Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

In that case, the KMT would easily win.
I was hoping for a timeline where there is no Second Sino-Japanese War but World War II happens on par with OTL (possibly even the Pacific War happens on par). Some other users suggest in my previous timelines that the KMT was too 'corrupt and incompetent' to effectively finish off the CCP.
 

I was hoping for a timeline where there is no Second Sino-Japanese War but World War II happens on par with OTL (possibly even the Pacific War happens on par). Some other users suggest in my previous timelines that the KMT was too 'corrupt and incompetent' to effectively finish off the CCP.

It depends on a lot of things - does Chiang come to power? Does he or does he not purge CCP elements from the KMT? How successful is he with consolidation of power amongst the warlords? The POD for no invasion of Manchuria needs to be first identified, and there's no way that's not going to happen when they have a foothold on the continent.
 
Regardless, I see a few obvious things:
1. Japan is either a) more sane but with the military in charge
Or b) with Taisho Democracy

In a), the GMD would definitely win (without an invasion).
In b), that really depends on relations with China. If they're terrible, Japan might choose to fund the Communists, instead of supporting an invasion.

2. China is stronger, probably. In my timeline, I'm thinking about turning China 'red' through a worker revolution, instead of the normal 'Maoist' revolution. That requires industry.

Perhaps Chiang feels more confident to destroy the warlords after the CCP is 'gone'. Then he establishes dictatorial control over the country, using his landlord-supplied army.

This gets pretty unpopular with the peasants - and bang, Maoist revolution.
 
Top