How could have Japan surrendered before Germany?
- Thread starter thatweirdguy
- Start date
Do you feel that a Royal Navy with supremacy in the Mediterranean Sea (Taranto x4 essentially with a 2 carrier strike on 2 nights) would be unable to inflict severe suffering on the Italian convoys to North Africa or do you feel that Axis North African forces with significantly reduced supplies would be able to fight at least able to fight defensively.
Crete may disrupt things but my own thinking was that the Axis forces in North Africa would decisively collapse when the Royal Navy has a freeer hand to inflict logitical losses in the Mediterranean.
Riain
Banned
Logistics campaigns are slow and require constant pressure. I think the Commonwealth forces would prevail in successive operations before they sunk enough ships to really deny the Axis supplies.
The Axis supply was a strange beast.Tripoli and Benghazi can only handle 4 or 5 ships at a time, so convoys only have 8 or 9 ships, but require big escorts to defend against air, surface and submarine attacks. Once these inefficient sea convoys make it to port they join the appallingly inefficient land transport system which was dependent on trucks rather than trains.
Holding Crete denies the Axis a convoy route to Africa .
I think some hay could be made if the US went all-in on blockade of Japan instead of the bombing campaign. According to the USAAF/USAF's own Strategic Bombing Survey (link, for your convenience: https://www.anesi.com/ussbs01.htm) the huge fleets of bombers setting Japanese cities on fire was overall less effective in promoting the capitulation of Japan than the strangling of supply through air-dropped mines as part of the overall blockade program. This fits nicely with what I've read about naval action in the Pacific so I think there's weight to this assessment. Because Japan is an island nation, with virtually all of its warmaking/industrial capacity on those islands, cutting off the supply to that capacity, while also bottling up its production to the Home Islands, effectively neuters Japan's ability to project force beyond its own shores. Couple the minimizing of Japanese civilian casualties with an inability to provide basic resources to either industry or basic foodstuffs to the population, and you could drastically accelerate the collapse of the Japanese government from within as there are far more mouths to feed and workers without work.
There's a good line I remember, but can't recall the context: "It's hard for a man to protest to his government, to oppose the war, or to make demands for peace, while he's on fire."
Check out the 'hindsight' portion of the Survey, there are some tasty 'what if' prompts littered throughout.
There's a good line I remember, but can't recall the context: "It's hard for a man to protest to his government, to oppose the war, or to make demands for peace, while he's on fire."
Check out the 'hindsight' portion of the Survey, there are some tasty 'what if' prompts littered throughout.
thatweirdguy
Banned
Chiang's early death might have been a blessing to the war effort. Mao's death would also be a blessing.
Continuing....
Meanwhile, in Europe...
Stalemate continues in the Caucasus.
Germany resumes the "Blitz" of Britain,but with less effect and more losses, due to effective nightfighters and radar-directed flak; also raids on German airbases in France. The Second Battle of Britain is won by the Allies in fall 1942.
The Battle of the Atlantic is very bad for the Allies until CVEs, VLR aircraft, and H2X airborne radar turn it around in summer and fall 1943.
French North Africa joins the Allies in summer 1942. In October 1942, the Allies invade Sicily,followed by a gruelling six month campaign. Later in1943, the Allies invade Sardinia/Corsica and Crete/Dodecanese - winning in each campaign by attrition of the isolated garrison, with heavy Allied casualties as well.
In summer 1944, the Allies invade Norway. German insistence on moving troops and supplies through Sweden leads to Sweden being drawn into the war on the Allied side (Germany attempts a coup état by pro-German Swedes). Another gruelling campaign follows, but by now the Allies have complete air supremacy and US forces are veterans, with what seems to the Germans like infinite amounts of artillery shells. The Allies clear Norway and Sweden by December. Finland defects to the Allies.
Also in summer 1944, the Allies finally break the Caucasus stalemate and advance into southern Russia. (Improved logistics due to opening the Mediterranean.)
With the surrender of Japan and liberation of Siberia (becomes "Free Russian"), Allied advance into southern Russia, switch of Finland and Allied advance into NW Russia, "Eurasia" joins the Allies in spring 1945.
All Allied forces transfer from the Pacific to Europe, including huge amphibious fleet, B-29s, the USMC, and a bunch of other troops. In June 1945, the Allies invade France in Normandy and Provence. US Marines invade Chios and Lesbos.
At the end ofJuly, the first atomic bomb destroys Berlin. Hitler survives in the Fuhrerbunker, then moves to a secret refuge in the Alps. He orders retaliation on Britain with nerve gas (using V1s and V2s). Additional Bombs destroy Munich, Leipzig, Frankfurt, and Dusseldorf in August.
In September, the Schwarze Kapelle finally succeed in killing Hitler, after numerous near-misses, and seize power. They call for an armistice and negotiations. The Allies reiterate the demand for unconditional surrender and nuke Bremen. Germany surrenders a week later.
The Xi’an Incident was half-successful:
Chiang Kai-shek smashed his skull on the stone, and the fragmentation of the National Government made the Japanese march more smoothly. In despair, the CCP became the leader of the War of Resistance, and received direct weapons and logistical assistance from the Soviet Union, Britain and the United States, and some industries. Construction.
Chiang Kai-shek smashed his skull on the stone, and the fragmentation of the National Government made the Japanese march more smoothly. In despair, the CCP became the leader of the War of Resistance, and received direct weapons and logistical assistance from the Soviet Union, Britain and the United States, and some industries. Construction.