How could Gran Colombia survive?
- Thread starter Mercenarius
- Start date
Deleted member 67076
There are quite a few actually; but it depends on how you want Gran Colombia? Merely alive? Democratic? Dictatorship? Off the top of my head, I can think of 4 ways:
1) Adopting a different constitution in 1819 that is federal in nature. Gran Colombia was plagued with an overly centralized system that caused huge dissatisfaction in the departments and shifted the majority of the workload to a small amount of people in the capital. That needs to be eliminated or at least mitigated somehow. But Bolivar wouldn't like a completely federal system; certainly not one to the level the United States had.
2) Finish the war with Spain ASAP. It bled over 1/4 of the GDP and was extremely unpopular after 1823. By ending this it gives confidence to the government and will allow it to spend money on the people, lessening the desire to leave.
3) Simon Bolivar lives and cements his control over the country, turning into a repressive dictatorship that crushes any faction that would undermine the country's stabiliy until elections can be held. Probably sets the stage for a caudillo esque system.
4) Simon Bolivar dies before 1822(ish) and Santandar becomes the president, changing the government structure to a more federal one that alleviates much of the damage before it sinks in.
1) Adopting a different constitution in 1819 that is federal in nature. Gran Colombia was plagued with an overly centralized system that caused huge dissatisfaction in the departments and shifted the majority of the workload to a small amount of people in the capital. That needs to be eliminated or at least mitigated somehow. But Bolivar wouldn't like a completely federal system; certainly not one to the level the United States had.
2) Finish the war with Spain ASAP. It bled over 1/4 of the GDP and was extremely unpopular after 1823. By ending this it gives confidence to the government and will allow it to spend money on the people, lessening the desire to leave.
3) Simon Bolivar lives and cements his control over the country, turning into a repressive dictatorship that crushes any faction that would undermine the country's stabiliy until elections can be held. Probably sets the stage for a caudillo esque system.
4) Simon Bolivar dies before 1822(ish) and Santandar becomes the president, changing the government structure to a more federal one that alleviates much of the damage before it sinks in.
The war with Spain can't be ''finished'' untill Fernando VII dies, as he refused to accept it untill the bitter end, however after 1824-25 it is mostly over, after Peru and Mexico are out of Spain's control, neither side can hurt the other hard... it is not as if Spain can on her own muster a force large enough to take AND hold anywhere in the former Vice-royalty from the Peninsula + Cuba only
OTOH, have Bolivar die between Ayacucho and the November Conspiracy, and get Santander as President, and Gran Colombia has fairly good chances, if he dies before the major spanish armies on the continent are out, his leadership will be sorely missed and might give chance to Spain to at least prolong the war... if he dies after the November Conspiracy in 1828, it is too late for a Federal Surviving Gran Colombia...
OTOH, have Bolivar die between Ayacucho and the November Conspiracy, and get Santander as President, and Gran Colombia has fairly good chances, if he dies before the major spanish armies on the continent are out, his leadership will be sorely missed and might give chance to Spain to at least prolong the war... if he dies after the November Conspiracy in 1828, it is too late for a Federal Surviving Gran Colombia...
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I agree with the idea that Santander is better to keep Gran Colomobia united than Bolívar. However, I'm not sure if this would be better for the grancolombians. Considering how violence got encocrched in the political life of the constituent countries of Gran Colombia in OTL after the independence wars and the internal conflicts, what I can see is something like Mexico's OTL infighting amongst regional elites/ regional elites against central elites etc on steroids. Also, Nueva Granada was relatively poorer and less developed than New Spain, so the start from a more difficult position, and if their independence war goes like in OTL also with more destruction (both material and in the social tissue) than Mexico. Finally, Bolívar, with all his flaws, his lack of vision regarding the structural difficulties to his project and the way he apparently lost his mind a bit in older age, at least had an actual will to make better lifes for his people. Santander, on the other hand, was your tipical criollo who doesn't gave a shit about the means to reach his goals.
Also, we can try some giant butterflies, but with a wider perspective.
One of them should have a POD in colonial times, with a more coherent, integrated vicerroyaltiesthat are something that an administrative line enclosing local and regional entities without much actual connection amongst them (I'm talking about economics and infrastructures) In this case, however, everything should be so different in the early 19th century that probably is going too far.
Another option, more feasible, would has its POD not in Gran Colombia, but in México. If the Treaty of Córdoba goes ahead (Juan de O'Donojú survives, the spanish Cortes are more sensible, Ferdinand VII has an ictus and reamains unable to meddle in the affair, all the three, whatever you want) it's a game changer for the whole continent. Bolívar knew it, and as soon as he had news of the treaty wrote to San Martín sharing his worries about the consequences in the rest of the continent. In his own words (sorry, I have not the direct quote at hand, so you have to trust my memory) a royalist Mexico would have a more cohesive government, more stability and thus would be threat to Gran Colombia. He knew they were creating a new legitimacy, but that in the mindsets the old legitimacy was still very strong. Not to mention that Peruvians most probably would want also something like that (though at this point there is not much that Spain could do there directly, it could be a source of unrest and an added difficulty to the separatist campaings there.) and it even could tempt sectors of the cocieties inside the already independent territories. So, my bet is that facing this threat, Bolívar and co decide they have to do something to counter it. A new political approach, more prone to devolution (not sure if Bolívar would be able to accept a confederal project, however, but at least a federal one) an effort to attract wills by diplomatic means instead by force, peace negotiations with Spain while the boogeyman of the royalist presence up the north is useful to keep the attentions outside instead inside...
Also, we can try some giant butterflies, but with a wider perspective.
One of them should have a POD in colonial times, with a more coherent, integrated vicerroyaltiesthat are something that an administrative line enclosing local and regional entities without much actual connection amongst them (I'm talking about economics and infrastructures) In this case, however, everything should be so different in the early 19th century that probably is going too far.
Another option, more feasible, would has its POD not in Gran Colombia, but in México. If the Treaty of Córdoba goes ahead (Juan de O'Donojú survives, the spanish Cortes are more sensible, Ferdinand VII has an ictus and reamains unable to meddle in the affair, all the three, whatever you want) it's a game changer for the whole continent. Bolívar knew it, and as soon as he had news of the treaty wrote to San Martín sharing his worries about the consequences in the rest of the continent. In his own words (sorry, I have not the direct quote at hand, so you have to trust my memory) a royalist Mexico would have a more cohesive government, more stability and thus would be threat to Gran Colombia. He knew they were creating a new legitimacy, but that in the mindsets the old legitimacy was still very strong. Not to mention that Peruvians most probably would want also something like that (though at this point there is not much that Spain could do there directly, it could be a source of unrest and an added difficulty to the separatist campaings there.) and it even could tempt sectors of the cocieties inside the already independent territories. So, my bet is that facing this threat, Bolívar and co decide they have to do something to counter it. A new political approach, more prone to devolution (not sure if Bolívar would be able to accept a confederal project, however, but at least a federal one) an effort to attract wills by diplomatic means instead by force, peace negotiations with Spain while the boogeyman of the royalist presence up the north is useful to keep the attentions outside instead inside...
Another POD that could help in a butterfly effect, is a Timeline i'm writing about an independent México in 1814. In this Timeline, Iturbide allies with Morelos, given rise to the republic of septentrional america, a republic with a centralistic strong presidency (a monarchy with republican ropes). With a defeat of royalist forces and an invation of 12000 repulsed by 1816 (with an American help after an earlier than IOTL boundary treatie of frontiers), that gives more than 5 years of government examples and help to Bolívar and San Martin to effectively make anything they want politically on their realms.
In my TL, this arises troubles between México and US, because now south america has another example to copy on for a strong government. In this Timeline México has only 2 revolutions in 30 years ( because of elections fraud and liberal constitution amendments) and managed to defeat Texas seccesion and following bloody War with the US. So gran Colombia became an earlier ally on the continent, absorving by 1840 the Perú-bolivian confederacy.
In my TL, this arises troubles between México and US, because now south america has another example to copy on for a strong government. In this Timeline México has only 2 revolutions in 30 years ( because of elections fraud and liberal constitution amendments) and managed to defeat Texas seccesion and following bloody War with the US. So gran Colombia became an earlier ally on the continent, absorving by 1840 the Perú-bolivian confederacy.
Its Very clear by my earlier post and by the posts by others, that gran Colombia by 1826 onwards was doomed because of effective external influencies and the typical pretorian armies that born in all colonial spain after their long independent wars. Bolívar himself was desilutioned, but was infected with this same desease. That's why historians worldwide seems to agree that further development and stability of all hispanic América was difficult and could not be otherwise: weak governments fall (santa anna, Iturbide ) or strong fall ( Bolívar, Sucre), so could be any hope? We are predestined to fail. ( i disagree with this view because all pretorian latinoamerican governments were all but the same, and it doesn mean that is destiny)
Delta Force
Banned
It might be difficult to retain Panama because it could only be easily accessed by sea even by the time of the Panama Canal.
And yet it really didn't have to be that way, cf. Arkhangelsk's "¡Viva México Fuerte!" TL for a counter-example to that. So as can Mexico's history be imagined differently where it doesn't fall into that trap and it thus much better off in the long run, than so too can the former Viceroyalty of New Granada and Captaincy-General of Venezuela. And it is here where (Gran) Colombia would probably have a much better chance of survival if it avoided those same traps.
Redhand
Banned
The power of the caudillos and the irreversible social strife between Creoles and mestizos make any Latin American centralized government unlikely to succeed. Shear military repression might be enough to do it if the government makes enough alliances with local strongmen and simply bullies evryone into unity.
Deleted member 67076
So what if we have a federal constitution that is federal in nature yet has a strong presidency and upper legislative house? Would that not be enough to appease both the liberals and the criollos? And then we have the inevitable war against Spain go better along with an early death for Don Fernando so peace returns and the county eases into peace?
Now this is just my personal opinion here, but Bolivar needs to die. Like Alexander before him, he was a better general than he was a president, and the kind of government he advocated and headed needed a strong, charismatic executive to keep it running, which only he himself was in a position to be.
Santander could rule, but there would have to be some way to curb the authority of Páez as well since without Bolivar I have a hard time seeing Santander being able to rein him in. Would butterflies be able to do that?
Santander could rule, but there would have to be some way to curb the authority of Páez as well since without Bolivar I have a hard time seeing Santander being able to rein him in. Would butterflies be able to do that?
I was thinking more like, Bolivar gets badly wounded in early december, perhaps a skirmish is the official version, dying around christmas, then have Sucre defeating the Spaniards in Alt-Ayacucho and that creates the myth of Sucre avenging Bolivar... have Santander and tye federalistas get power, and get Sucre to support them, and you don't have to worry about Paez, IIRC Gran Colombia was divided in 3 departments, roughly corresponding to the 3 nations in which it divided, and those in provinces... perhaps giving more power to the ''departments'' (Venezuela, Quito, and Cundinamarca/New Granada) rather than the government in Bogota... maybe a capital for this Gran Colombia that it's not New Granada's capital would help...
Ropes? Ah, Spanish 'ropa'. 'Clothing' would likely be the best word here, but the cognate 'robes' could work, too.
Deleted member 67076
Would it really be that hard to convince Bolivar to use a semi-federal system with a strong presidency?
Actually, in all irony, Bolívar's system as he conceived it was inherently federal as an ideal mode. He also had some weird stuff in there, such as the tricameral Congress. Depending on your particular ideological persuasion, his system would be either close to parliamentary democracy, a semi-presidential system, or a pure presidential republic where the presidential powers are evenly split between the President and Vice-President. Have a peek:
http://www.webcitation.org/query?ur...lis/7609/repbol.html&date=2009-10-25+05:45:24