I am planning on writing a timeline on Germany winning World War 1, but I'm not sure how that could happen. The PoD is there being no Easter Rising, so Lylod George goes to Russia with Kitchener and is blown up when the ship hits a mine. Could people give me some ideas about a plausiable Entente collapse in 1917/1918?
Thanks (sorry if this is considered a Sealion topic in these forums)
Don't see why it should be. WW1 was a very close run thing at various points.
POD, October 28, 1916. Troops called to suppress a strike in Petrograd fire on police instead. Cossacks sent against them either join them or don't arrive till too late and situation out of control
.
(For the OTL events upon which this is based, see Memoirs of Ambassador Pal
eologue at http://net.lib.byu.edu/estu/wwi/memoir/FrAmbRus/pal3-03.htm )
Government loses control of the capital, rebellion spreads to other cities, and within days the Tsar is forced to abdicate. Provisional Government set up much as OTL after February Revolution. Lenin, Trotsky et al return to Russia.
December. At Pless Conference, Bethmann argues strongly against adoption of unrestricted submarine warfare, which will give Entente a new ally just as it may be losing an old one. Argues instead for letting Lenin etc cross Germany to Sweden and so back to Russia. High Command grudgingly agrees for time being.
Dec/Jan. President Wilson makes peace moves, and "Peace without victory" speech. Does no better than OTL High Command again starts pushing for USW.
Provisional Gov't goes downhill even faster than OTL's did. It has come to power just at onset of Winter, when living conditions for workers and soldiers are at their worst. By February it is generally seen as a busted flush and in mid-March (by Western Calendar) it is overthrown by the Bolsheviks. Thus we still get October and February Revolutions, but in reverse order.
Late Feb 1917. Last US troops withdrawn from Mexico, as OTL. US-Mexican relations still not over-friendly, but now less heated. German High Command now again pushing for unrestricted u-boat warfare.
Rapid decline of Russian military power leads to troop transfers from the east even while PG still in power. Planned withdrawal of Western Front to Hindenburg Line is put on hold.
March 1 1917. German Merchant Submarine
Deutschland delivers Zimmermann Note to Embassy in Washington. British Intelligence thus gets no opportunity to intercept or decode it. Mexicans dismiss it out of hand but do not reveal its contents.
March 5, 1917. President Wilson sworn in for new term. Next day, German Ambassador hands in note announcing commencement of USW. Justifies it on grounds of Allied rejection of Wilson's peace proposals.
Wilson furious, but takes his time about responding. 64th Congress has now expired, and 65th need not meet until December, so his hands are relatively free. Republicans and much of press demand that the President call an early session, but he declines to do so. Rumours abound about possible severance of diplomatic relations with Germany, but for now at least it doesn't happen. Secretary of State Lansing resigns in protest, but Wilson is unmoved, appointing Bainbridge Colby by recess appointment to avoid recalling Senate. Two or three other resignations are dealt with the same way.
April 1, 1917. Bolshevik Russia signs armistice with Germany. Rumania soon folows. Hostilities ended on Eastern Front.
Fierce arguments in French army and government circles about forthcoming Nivelle Offensive. Nivelle insists that it is more necessary than ever, as Germany must be defeated before reinforcements form the east can be brought to bear. Petain argues for postponing it, and making it the counter-stroke to a likely German attack. He is overruled, and it goes ahead, as OTL, on April 16.
April-May 1917. Nivelle Offensive ends even more disastrously than OTL. Mutinies break out in French Army, rendering it temporarily incapable of offensive action.
German/US relations further strained due to u-boat sinkings of American merchantmen. Widespread calls for war, but Wilson less eager than ever. He senses that a decision in Europe is imminent, and that any US intervention now will be "too little too late" and merely expose him to ridicule. Better to stay neutral and so available as mediator. He has also taken alarm at the Bolshevik Revolution, and fears that a defeated Germany may go the same way. Is reportedly heard to mutter "Too late, too late. I should have gone to war after the Lusitania".
June 1917. Massive German attack in British sector. Advances about as far as OTL's March 1918, but from a more advanced starting point. Amiens falls, British and French armies are separated. Channel ports come within range of German artillery.
French attempt offensive to relieve pressure on BEF. Ludendorff, smelling victory, ignores it and orders commanders in French sector to just hold on with what they've got. French troops are still unwilling to take offensive, and several units just refuse to do so. Petain decides that preserving his own army (if he can) is more crucial than helping Les Anglais, and calls it off.
July/August 1917. British and Belgians now pinned in narrow coastal strip from Nieuport to Boulogne. Unremitting German bombardment is turning it into a slaughterhouse. Attempts are made to evacuate troops by boat, but with only limited success under the continual shellfire. Haig decides that the game is up.
August 4, 1917. Haig meets Hindenburg and Ludendorff at Ypres. The signing ceremony is kept brief, and by midday almost a million British and Belgian soldiers have become prisoners of war. Haig offers his sword to Hindenburg, who touches the hilt in a token acceptance before motioning for Haig to keep it. He goes on to indicate that he is willing for Haig to go home on parole, but Haig is not attracted. He knows what awaits him back in Britain, where Lloyd George is already making him the scapegoat for the disaster. He asks if the offer of parole can be extended to the whole BEF. Hindenburg hesitates, but Ludendorff brusquely interrupts and declares anything of the sort quite out of the question. "In that case" Haig responds "I thank you for your courtesy but must decline. Honour requires that I share the fate of my men". Hindenburg bows in acknowlegement. The man who will soon be cruelly dubbed "The greatest Scottish soldier of all time, because he killed the most Englishmen" leaves the stage of history.
Aug/Sep 1917. Petain falls back south-westward to cover Paris. However, the news of their "desertion" by their British Allies has undermined French morale even further. In Paris, British officers are greeted with cries of "Perfide Albion" and stoned in the streets. Petain advises that there is no realistic hope of victory, and recommends that an armistice be sought.
Peace feelers are put out, but the German demands are monstrously severe. Petain nonetheless advises acceptance, but is dismissed and replaced by General Mangin. Mangin launches a counter-offensive, which fails with irreparable losses. A new French government, under Joseph Caillaux, recalls Petain and accepts the German terms. All northern and western France is to be occupied, and all French ports and naval bases to be at Germany's disposal for prosecution of the u-boat campaign against Britain.
Sept/Oct 1917. Italy and the remaining continental Allies sue for peace. The remaining European neutrals, now at the mercy of the German army, are compelled to end all trade with Britain, who in any case is finding it harder and harder to import, as the value of Sterling falls though the floor.
Lloyd George, Churchill and a few others wish to fight on alone, but shortages of food and naval fuel oil are making the situation untenable. Also, King George V is uneasily conscious of the fate of his Russian cousins, and has no intention of taking an unpopular stand. He insists that the present Parliament, already prolonged beyond its normal lifetime, must be dissolved and a general election held. When this takes place, the divided Liberals are all but wiped out, and the Unionists also decimated. The hitherto small Labour Party has a comfortable majority. The King invites its official leader, Arthur Henderson, to form a government, but Henderson declines in favour of Ramsay MacDonald, who is preferred by most of the new intake of Labour MPs.
The MacDonald government asks President Wilson to mediate between itself and Berlin. The Germans reject any talks until an armistice is concluded by land, sea and air. Reluctantly, MacDonald agrees.
The German terms are extremely hard, including surrender of all British military aircraft, and the transfer to Germany of Gibraltar, Malta and Suez, and to Turkey of Aden, Cyprus and the rest of Egypt. All Turkish territory conquered by Britain is to be restored, and Persia and the Gulf to be evacuated. Kamerun and German East Africa to be immediately restored, and several other African colonies handed over as "security" for the return of Southwest Africa and the German Pacific possessions. No one really believes that they will ever be returned.
MacDonald is horrified by these demands, and considers continuing the war. But President Wilson, the only potential ally, has no interest in the fate of Britain's African colonies. Meantime, with France as a base, and the support of powerful surface ships, the u-boats threaten the country with slow strangulation. The game is indeed up.
On 11th November 1917, the Anglo-German armistice is signed. The war in Europe is over.