How could Germany have realistically won WW1 after 1917?

Very interesting timeline and the Treaty of Frankfurt (am Main? vs an der Oder) is very good at redrawing the map of Europe, (much like Metternich and 1815).

However a small nit, as much as French claims in the Caribbean would be welcomed by Berlin, the US would not - make that could not allow it to happen under the Monroe Doctrine -- e.g. no swapping of colonial possessions in the Americas. A revision to a US Commonwealth similar to Puerto Rico is more likely.

Also the fate of Luxembourg isn't really addressed. I would Posit that it would become another constituent of the "ewiger Bund" that was the Second Reich."
http://www.deutsche-kaiserreich.de/

Does Britain's "free Hand" in East Africa include Deutsch-ostafrika? http://www.deutsche-schutzgebiete.de...e-kolonien.htm

Thank you for your comments, firstly, no British free hand in East Africa does not include German territory. My impression of the Monroe Doctrine, was that it allowed the European powers to swap colonies, as long as it didn't constitute the growth of European colonies in the Americas, forgive me if I'm wrong.

Luxembourg will be annexed to the Second Reich, but be on an equal footing with Bavaria or Prussia.

Hmm, I think the best way to calm the Magyars down is to only carve out Croatia from Hungary, and allow them to keep Transylvania, the Banat and Slovakia. Where is Bukovina on your list? Is it federated with Galizia??

The Austrians aren't aiming to keep the Hungarians happy, they were the thing that was dragging the Dual Monarchy to it's death from the moment it was founded. From an Austrian perspective, this ensures that a scenario similar to the First World War, where Austria was starving, while Hungary had a surplus of grain, as it breaks the Hungarian state up and means a USCE civil war, won't be Austrians vs everybody else, but Hungary vs everybody else because all the other ethnic groups have political power.

Do you believe Poland would have risk starting awar with Germany? I doubt France and Britain woud have gone to the aid of Russia/Slim
Where did Poland come into this?
Also, I was imagining an Anglo-French intervention in the 1930s, when the global situation could have changed drastically.
 
With corrections:

Here the next's part of the timeline (1918 to Treaty of Frankfurt)

...

Um... 'secede' is when some of the country leaves... to 'cede' is to give something up. Kind of important not to confuse those in a treaty :p:)

Other than that... nothing specific to say! Sorry
 
Sorry about the long hiatus, I was suffering from an extremely bad bout of writer's block with regards to this timeline, but hopefully I'll be able to devote some more time to this...

Here is a short short article on the British Empire after the First World War:

The British Empire After the Treaty of Frankfurt- Part 1: The Decline of the British Empire and the Gibralter Crisis

The end of the First World War, produced mixing feelings among the British population, although it could not be said that Britain lost the war, it certainly did not win it either. The United States had forced Britain out of many of traditional markets in the Pacific and the Americas, with Japan doing the same in China and even British India. The victory of the German Reich, also ruined the country's foreign policy of not allowing a major power to become the dominant power on the European continent and greatly disrupted the global balance of power. For the first time since at least the Napeolonic Wars and maybe even since the Seven Years War, there was a power with a similar industrial base and a similar global distribution to the British Empire.

Instead of being the unquestioned master of the globe, as it had been in 1901, the Britain that entered the early 1920s was one of three global superpowers along with the United States of America and Germany. As predicted by many, the end of the war brought a heavy slump to the British economy, made even more acute by the disintergration of the French Third Republic in early 1919. The near constant guerilla warfare in Ireland and India only worsened the state of the steadily diminishing British resources.

Although the Conservatives, lead by Austen Chamberlain easily won the 1918 election, the first in which women could vote, their failure to deal with Britain's weakened economy ensured a rapid haemoraging of support among the public. The final straw came in the 1922 Gibralter Crisis. Overestimating the extent to which Britain had been weakened by the post-war slump, the Spanish government on June 8th demanded that the British return the rock at the entrance to the Mediterrenean or face war. Prime Minister Chamberlain's refusal to even consider the Spanish terms, lead to an extremely tense stand-off between the Royal Navy and the Spanish fleet outside Seville. In an attempt to break the deadlock, Spain request membership of the newly established Mittleuropa organization on June 17th.

Faced with the prospect of a second war with Germany, Chamberlain panicked and hinted he was willing to negoiate with the Spanish. Chamberlain's already fragile adminstration imploded as soon as news got out and he was quickly replaced by Bonar Law, who called an election. In fact, Germany was uninterested in letting Spain join Mittleeuropa, particuarly if it involved getting involved in the messy stand-off between Britain and Spain over Gibralter. Faced with total lack of support from Germany, Spain decided to drop the matter, but the damage had already been done.

The elections, as predicted, were a massacre of the Conservative Party and they would never truly recover until the 1950s. A Liberal-Labour coalition under Lloyd George took power, who unknown at the time, would be the last British prime minister to be elected for quite some time...
 
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Sorry about the long hiatus, I was suffering from an extremely bad bout of writer's block with regards to this timeline, but hopefully I'll be able to devote some more time to this...

Here is a short short article on the British Empire after the First World War:

The British Empire After the Treaty of Frankfurt- Part 1: The Decline of the British Empire and the Gibralter Crisis

The end of the First World War, produced mixing feelings among the British population, although it could not be said that Britain lost the war, it certainly did not win it either. The United States had forced Britain out of many of traditional markets in the Pacific and the Americas, with Japan doing the same in China and even British India. The victory of the German Reich, also ruined the country's foreign policy of not allowing a major power to become the dominant power on the European continent and greatly disrupted the global balance of power. For the first time since at least the Napeolonic Wars and maybe even since the Seven Years War, there was a power with a similar industrial base and a similar global distribution to the British Empire.

Instead of being the unquestioned master of the globe, as it had been in 1901, the Britain that entered the early 1920s was one of three global superpowers along with the United States of America and Germany. As predicted by many, the end of the war brought a heavy slump to the British economy, made even more acute by the disintergration of the French Third Republic in early 1919. The near constant guerilla warfare in Ireland and India only worsened the state of the steadily diminishing British resources.

Although the Conservatives, lead by Austen Chamberlain easily won the 1918 election, the first in which women could vote, their failure to deal with Britain's weakened economy ensured a rapid haemoraging of support among the public. The final straw came in the 1922 Gibralter Crisis. Overestimating the extent to which Britain had been weakened by the post-war slump, the Spanish government on June 8th demanded that the British return the rock at the entrance to the Mediterrenean or face war. Prime Minister Chamberlain's refusal to even consider the Spanish terms, lead to an extremely tense stand-off between the Royal Navy and the Spanish fleet outside Seville. In an attempt to break the deadlock, Spain request membership of the newly established Mittleuropa organization on June 17th.

Faced with the prospect of a second war with Germany, Chamberlain panicked and hinted he was willing to negoiate with the Spanish. Chamberlain's already fragile adminstration imploded as soon as news got out and he was quickly replaced by Bonar Law, who called an election. In fact, Germany was uninterested in letting Spain join Mittleeuropa, particuarly if it involved getting involved in the messy stand-off between Britain and Spain over Gibralter. Faced with total lack of support from Germany, Spain decided to drop the matter, but the damage had already been done.

The elections, as predicted, were a massacre of the Conservative Party and they would never truly recover until the 1950s. A Liberal-Labour coalition under Lloyd George took power, who unknown at the time, would be the last British prime minister to be elected for quite some time...


Please dont stop there :)
 
Uh oh. Hopefully "last election for a long time" means Lloyd-George will be successful and there will be no need for new elections to be called, not that he'll turn into some kind of Mussolini figure.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Interresting...
Btw, Finland should probably be pro- German, since they in a Central Power victory TL would have Friedrich Karl of Hessen crowned king Väinö I.
 
Interresting...
Btw, Finland should probably be pro- German, since they in a Central Power victory TL would have Friedrich Karl of Hessen crowned king Väinö I.

I disagree. Not with Finland being pro-German (it was, across party lines) but with Friedrich Karl being sure to become king.

The constitutional question was essentially a matter of internal politics - the monarchy was not going to be imposed by the Germans but was rather a Finnish Royalist project. Finland was predominately republican, and as far as I can see, Germans themselves were pretty oblivious as to the way Finland was governed. As long as Finland is an obedient (economic) client of theirs, of course.

Even in CP-victory TL's, with the German intervention in Finland on par (or smaller) with the OTL situation, I'd rate the likelihood of Finland going Royalist at mere 40%.

("Väinö I", in turn, was a joke by the columnist Olli but the moniker stuck and has since been enshrined in legend. I'd expect a Fredrik Kaarle I, Fredrik I, or Kaarle I.)
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, I like Kaarle I.

However, did the Finnish Civil War happen in this TL?? As I remember that was the spark that changed the minds of the Young Finns and Agrarians toward a monarchy. If it did not happen then I see Finland becoming a Republic (with only Swedes and Old Finns supporting monarchy, and Agrarians, Young Finns and the still very strong Social Democrats supporting a republic).
 

Shackel

Banned
I'm wondering if an ATL America public could have gotten angry at the British blockade of Germany, and could have pressured Wilson into asking/demanding for it's removal.

Also, could there be an ATL where the Z. Telegram is made to look like a British offer, possibly leading to America's entrance on the other side?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I'm wondering if an ATL America public could have gotten angry at the British blockade of Germany, and could have pressured Wilson into asking/demanding for it's removal.

Also, could there be an ATL where the Z. Telegram is made to look like a British offer, possibly leading to America's entrance on the other side?
No Zimmermann telegram in this TL, since there is no unrestricted submarine warfare. The submarine warfare was what got America into the war, the telegram just sped things up. (Zimmermann's telegram is over rated).
 
Uh oh. Hopefully "last election for a long time" means Lloyd-George will be successful and there will be no need for new elections to be called, not that he'll turn into some kind of Mussolini figure.

When I first read the phrase, which was actually "the last British prime minister to be elected for quite some time...", I was thinking of an extended Chretien-like reign, with the same faces in power for over ten years. Parliament's still called every few years, but there's not going to be any serious challenge.
 

Shackel

Banned
No Zimmermann telegram in this TL, since there is no unrestricted submarine warfare. The submarine warfare was what got America into the war, the telegram just sped things up. (Zimmermann's telegram is over rated).

Ah, and about the last part. What I was saying was that the public puts the Blockade over the U-Boats, and the Zimmerman Telegram is made to look like a British forgery, basically making it an American intervention AGAINST the Allies. Could this also be an alternate timeline?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Ah, and about the last part. What I was saying was that the public puts the Blockade over the U-Boats, and the Zimmerman Telegram is made to look like a British forgery, basically making it an American intervention AGAINST the Allies. Could this also be an alternate timeline?
Unlikely, the US traded more with Britain and France than with Germany. And the unrestricted submarine warfare meant American ships were under attack on the High Seas.
 
When I first read the phrase, which was actually "the last British prime minister to be elected for quite some time...", I was thinking of an extended Chretien-like reign, with the same faces in power for over ten years. Parliament's still called every few years, but there's not going to be any serious challenge.

"Lloyd George took power, who unknown at the time, would be the last British prime minister to be elected for quite some time..."


Yes, this could fit your interpretation. Though maybe it's just the PM doesn't change.

Hmm... we in Britain have had a couple of "Chretien-like reign"s of our own in the last few decades - Thatcher for 11 years, then Major for 7, Blair for 10...
 
The British Empire after the Treaty of Frankfurt- Part 2: The Rise of the Tudorists and the run-up to Civil War

Lloyd George, when he finally became Prime Minister in 1922, he was faced with one of the worst crisises Britain had ever faced. The economy was slumped, international prestige was low and the country was facing open revolts in India and Ireland. At home, there were running battles between Communist-leaning trade unions and the radical Tudorists, who attacked the weakest point of the British establishment, the Germanic house of Windsor.

This had not been an issue in the war, but after the war, as Britain's economy faced mounting difficulties, people began to look for scapegoats. Some blamed the Jews, a common group to be vilified on somewhat tenous grounds, but increasingly, the main target for this treatment, was not an ethnic minority (apart from maybe the Irish), but the British monarchy. This situation was not helped by the somewhat dubious circumstances that the House of Windsor, under it's previous title, the House of Hannover, had come to power, skating over nearly fifty more legitimate candidates in the House of Stuart. However, by this point, the descendants of King James II and his son, had become far too foreign to make acceptable rallying points for resistance to the House of Windsor. Instead, the focus fell on a more obscure point, the bastard sons of King Henry VIII and their descendants.

Walter Stanley, was one of these and by far the most convincing. Stanley, along with his crony, Oswald Mosley, founded the Table of Britain Movement or simply, the Tudorists in 1920. The group ran it's first candidates in the 1922 election, winning a large number of seats in Wales and Cornwall and coming close in the disaffected Midlands. In August 1923, a series of riots rocked Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff and Plymouth, as communists and Tudorists clashed following political rallies in those cities. Lloyd George, was ultimately forced to send in the army to restore order, but not after several hundred people had been killed by the fighting. Attempts to curtail the power of the unions and ban the Tudorists, only lead to a wave of strikes which paralyzed Wales and the Midlands for weeks in the autumn of 1923. The government was forced into a humilating climb-down from the move.

The next year, brought little in the way of relief, while news reached an already dispirited country of pitched battles between the British Army and the armies of local princes in India, while many British regiments on the subcontinent were on the brink of mutiny. It was quickly becoming clear that unless action was taken, the British Empire would tear itself apart at it's most vulnerable points. The only real good news for Britain, was a relatively good haul at the 1924 New York Olympics, when Britain came third, just behind Germany and the United States of America.

The years of 1925 and 1926, appeared to show a calming of the situation. Although the country remained fragile, there were signs that it could recover from the disasters of the last decade. Both the Tudorists and trade unions were relatively quite, although industrial unrest over pay and conditions was a constant issue.

On January 8th 1927, the worst thing possible happened. The London Stock Markets collapsed, wiping out the saving of millions of people, not just in Britain, but across the globe. Lloyd George's adminstration, like that of his predecessors, faced a bombardment of no-confidence votes. There was renewed fighting between the British government, the Trade Unions and the Tudorists. On January 31st, Walter Stanley, appeared in front of a large crowd in Cardiff and furiously denounced Lloyd George and King George V, claiming the later had actually provided the Germans with intelligence during the Great War. He also presented documents which allegedly proved that the king was also arranging for the British treasury to be siphoned off to aid Germany's economy. Although all of these claims were untrue, they were highly damaging and on February 2nd, Lloyd George was forced to call an election.

To nearly everyone's surprise, the Liberals managed to limp through a majority, but both the Tudorists and various communist groups, had enough seats to disrupt them. Mosley, came on air a few hours after the election results were announced and declared that they had been rigged, by the communists. The communists made the same accusation against the Liberals and Tudorists. A confrontation, it seemed, was all but inevitable.

On April 1st, the TUC declared a general strike and began seizing control of the big cities in the Midlands and the north, as well as parts of London. The Tudorists did the same in Wales and the western half of the country. As in 1923, George sent in the army to restore order. But this time, the TUC and Tudorists were ready and there were running battles in the streets between the British army and the revolutionaries.

The effect was immediate. Members of the two rebel groups, seized control of all government apparatus in the cities and towns under their control, arresting or killing government officals who would not co-operate. By early May 1927, the British Empire, once the largest the world had ever seen, was on the path to it's final disintergration.
 
I am planning on writing a timeline on Germany winning World War 1, but I'm not sure how that could happen. The PoD is there being no Easter Rising, so Lylod George goes to Russia with Kitchener and is blown up when the ship hits a mine. Could people give me some ideas about a plausiable Entente collapse in 1917/1918?
Thanks (sorry if this is considered a Sealion topic in these forums)

Don't see why it should be. WW1 was a very close run thing at various points.

POD, October 28, 1916. Troops called to suppress a strike in Petrograd fire on police instead. Cossacks sent against them either join them or don't arrive till too late and situation out of control.

(For the OTL events upon which this is based, see Memoirs of Ambassador Paleologue at http://net.lib.byu.edu/estu/wwi/memoir/FrAmbRus/pal3-03.htm )

Government loses control of the capital, rebellion spreads to other cities, and within days the Tsar is forced to abdicate. Provisional Government set up much as OTL after February Revolution. Lenin, Trotsky et al return to Russia.

December. At Pless Conference, Bethmann argues strongly against adoption of unrestricted submarine warfare, which will give Entente a new ally just as it may be losing an old one. Argues instead for letting Lenin etc cross Germany to Sweden and so back to Russia. High Command grudgingly agrees for time being.

Dec/Jan. President Wilson makes peace moves, and "Peace without victory" speech. Does no better than OTL High Command again starts pushing for USW.

Provisional Gov't goes downhill even faster than OTL's did. It has come to power just at onset of Winter, when living conditions for workers and soldiers are at their worst. By February it is generally seen as a busted flush and in mid-March (by Western Calendar) it is overthrown by the Bolsheviks. Thus we still get October and February Revolutions, but in reverse order.

Late Feb 1917. Last US troops withdrawn from Mexico, as OTL. US-Mexican relations still not over-friendly, but now less heated. German High Command now again pushing for unrestricted u-boat warfare.

Rapid decline of Russian military power leads to troop transfers from the east even while PG still in power. Planned withdrawal of Western Front to Hindenburg Line is put on hold.

March 1 1917. German Merchant Submarine Deutschland delivers Zimmermann Note to Embassy in Washington. British Intelligence thus gets no opportunity to intercept or decode it. Mexicans dismiss it out of hand but do not reveal its contents.

March 5, 1917. President Wilson sworn in for new term. Next day, German Ambassador hands in note announcing commencement of USW. Justifies it on grounds of Allied rejection of Wilson's peace proposals.

Wilson furious, but takes his time about responding. 64th Congress has now expired, and 65th need not meet until December, so his hands are relatively free. Republicans and much of press demand that the President call an early session, but he declines to do so. Rumours abound about possible severance of diplomatic relations with Germany, but for now at least it doesn't happen. Secretary of State Lansing resigns in protest, but Wilson is unmoved, appointing Bainbridge Colby by recess appointment to avoid recalling Senate. Two or three other resignations are dealt with the same way.

April 1, 1917. Bolshevik Russia signs armistice with Germany. Rumania soon folows. Hostilities ended on Eastern Front.

Fierce arguments in French army and government circles about forthcoming Nivelle Offensive. Nivelle insists that it is more necessary than ever, as Germany must be defeated before reinforcements form the east can be brought to bear. Petain argues for postponing it, and making it the counter-stroke to a likely German attack. He is overruled, and it goes ahead, as OTL, on April 16.

April-May 1917. Nivelle Offensive ends even more disastrously than OTL. Mutinies break out in French Army, rendering it temporarily incapable of offensive action.

German/US relations further strained due to u-boat sinkings of American merchantmen. Widespread calls for war, but Wilson less eager than ever. He senses that a decision in Europe is imminent, and that any US intervention now will be "too little too late" and merely expose him to ridicule. Better to stay neutral and so available as mediator. He has also taken alarm at the Bolshevik Revolution, and fears that a defeated Germany may go the same way. Is reportedly heard to mutter "Too late, too late. I should have gone to war after the Lusitania".

June 1917. Massive German attack in British sector. Advances about as far as OTL's March 1918, but from a more advanced starting point. Amiens falls, British and French armies are separated. Channel ports come within range of German artillery.

French attempt offensive to relieve pressure on BEF. Ludendorff, smelling victory, ignores it and orders commanders in French sector to just hold on with what they've got. French troops are still unwilling to take offensive, and several units just refuse to do so. Petain decides that preserving his own army (if he can) is more crucial than helping Les Anglais, and calls it off.

July/August 1917. British and Belgians now pinned in narrow coastal strip from Nieuport to Boulogne. Unremitting German bombardment is turning it into a slaughterhouse. Attempts are made to evacuate troops by boat, but with only limited success under the continual shellfire. Haig decides that the game is up.

August 4, 1917. Haig meets Hindenburg and Ludendorff at Ypres. The signing ceremony is kept brief, and by midday almost a million British and Belgian soldiers have become prisoners of war. Haig offers his sword to Hindenburg, who touches the hilt in a token acceptance before motioning for Haig to keep it. He goes on to indicate that he is willing for Haig to go home on parole, but Haig is not attracted. He knows what awaits him back in Britain, where Lloyd George is already making him the scapegoat for the disaster. He asks if the offer of parole can be extended to the whole BEF. Hindenburg hesitates, but Ludendorff brusquely interrupts and declares anything of the sort quite out of the question. "In that case" Haig responds "I thank you for your courtesy but must decline. Honour requires that I share the fate of my men". Hindenburg bows in acknowlegement. The man who will soon be cruelly dubbed "The greatest Scottish soldier of all time, because he killed the most Englishmen" leaves the stage of history.

Aug/Sep 1917. Petain falls back south-westward to cover Paris. However, the news of their "desertion" by their British Allies has undermined French morale even further. In Paris, British officers are greeted with cries of "Perfide Albion" and stoned in the streets. Petain advises that there is no realistic hope of victory, and recommends that an armistice be sought.

Peace feelers are put out, but the German demands are monstrously severe. Petain nonetheless advises acceptance, but is dismissed and replaced by General Mangin. Mangin launches a counter-offensive, which fails with irreparable losses. A new French government, under Joseph Caillaux, recalls Petain and accepts the German terms. All northern and western France is to be occupied, and all French ports and naval bases to be at Germany's disposal for prosecution of the u-boat campaign against Britain.

Sept/Oct 1917. Italy and the remaining continental Allies sue for peace. The remaining European neutrals, now at the mercy of the German army, are compelled to end all trade with Britain, who in any case is finding it harder and harder to import, as the value of Sterling falls though the floor.

Lloyd George, Churchill and a few others wish to fight on alone, but shortages of food and naval fuel oil are making the situation untenable. Also, King George V is uneasily conscious of the fate of his Russian cousins, and has no intention of taking an unpopular stand. He insists that the present Parliament, already prolonged beyond its normal lifetime, must be dissolved and a general election held. When this takes place, the divided Liberals are all but wiped out, and the Unionists also decimated. The hitherto small Labour Party has a comfortable majority. The King invites its official leader, Arthur Henderson, to form a government, but Henderson declines in favour of Ramsay MacDonald, who is preferred by most of the new intake of Labour MPs.

The MacDonald government asks President Wilson to mediate between itself and Berlin. The Germans reject any talks until an armistice is concluded by land, sea and air. Reluctantly, MacDonald agrees.
The German terms are extremely hard, including surrender of all British military aircraft, and the transfer to Germany of Gibraltar, Malta and Suez, and to Turkey of Aden, Cyprus and the rest of Egypt. All Turkish territory conquered by Britain is to be restored, and Persia and the Gulf to be evacuated. Kamerun and German East Africa to be immediately restored, and several other African colonies handed over as "security" for the return of Southwest Africa and the German Pacific possessions. No one really believes that they will ever be returned.

MacDonald is horrified by these demands, and considers continuing the war. But President Wilson, the only potential ally, has no interest in the fate of Britain's African colonies. Meantime, with France as a base, and the support of powerful surface ships, the u-boats threaten the country with slow strangulation. The game is indeed up.

On 11th November 1917, the Anglo-German armistice is signed. The war in Europe is over.
 
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