How could Germany have realistically won WW1 after 1917?

[Wolfpaw]

Germany's war aims wouldn't have changed in this timeline, the Provisional government realizing how much trouble they were in is the key difference, if he'd taken power in February 1917, Lenin would have accepted these terms, he had the sense to realize Russia couldn't keep fighting.

Actually, if you take a look at Germany's war plans, they weren't going for Belarus, the Ukraine, and Finland, only Poland and the Baltics. They just gobbled up Belarus and the Ukraine when they realized "Hey, Russia's fucked! Let's snatch as much as we can while they're ripping each other's heads off, m'kay?" As for Finland, the Germans basically said, "What? You want to be independent, too? Fine, we'll back you a bit, but you're pretty much gonna be on your own."

When the Germans and the Bolsheviks met in December, 1917, to discuss peace terms, the Germans asked for Poland and Lithuania to be independent (which were already occupied) and that was all. The Bolsheviks refused to cede any land or pay any indemnities so they walked out, which would later come back to bite them.

I have no idea why you think Lenin would surrender all of these areas in March of 1917 when he thought Russia could still hold onto them in February of 1918.

Trust me, just have Russia implode as it did IOTL. Once the Germans win, yeah, have 'em boot out the Reds. But until then, leave the Ostfront alone.

After losing the Spanish-American War only 19 years before, Spain probably wouldn't pass up a chance to humilate or even annexe Portugal and grab some territory in Africa. Also, by this point, the Entente's defeat is all but inevitable, so although the gains are fairly minimal in value (except prestige perhaps), there isn't much risk either.

Why would Spain want to bugger around with Portugal because of the Spanish-American War?

"America made us look bad! I know! Let's beat up on...Portugal!"

If the Spaniards have been paying attention to World War I at all, they know that they're going to have a rough go of fighting Portugal. Defenders had a much better time of it back then. Spain attacking Portugal would just result in a really bloody ulcer for both parties. With regards to colonies, Spain was having enough trouble holding on to what they had as it was. I doubt they'd want more territories further away with more people who would probably resent them.

If your aim is to knock Portugal out of the war, just leave them alone. Once Britain and France go down, they'll sue for peace with Germany and probably only end up with a slap on the wrist.

 

[NothingNow]

If your aim is to knock Portugal out of the war, just leave them alone. Once Britain and France go down, they'll sue for peace with Germany and probably only end up with a slap on the wrist.

Whether the slap is Angola (Including Cabinda), Equatorial-Guinea, Mozambique, Sao Tome or, Timor or some combination of the above is the Issue really.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Teg,

How does the High Seas Fleet get to France's Channel and Atlantic ports let alone Santander? Britain still controls the two outlets of the North Sea no matter whether or not France is still in the war.

And please don't bother suggesting that the HSF is going to sneak through the Channel while staying in French waters.


Bill

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Britain will still rule the sea after the defeat of France, but might be willing to sign a white peace.

The Spain thing is ASB.

 

[teg]

Teg,

How does the High Seas Fleet get to France's Channel and Atlantic ports let alone Santander? Britain still controls the two outlets of the North Sea no matter whether or not France is still in the war.

And please don't bother suggesting that the HSF is going to sneak through the Channel while staying in French waters.


Bill

I'll concide that point, but I think U-boats could get through, they didn't have any trouble in the 1940s and with Germany in command of the French coast (I think part of the armistice, would be giving German ships access and denying British ships it), they would have a longer reach into the Atlantic than with just the Belgian or German coast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfpaw122

If your aim is to knock Portugal out of the war, just leave them alone. Once Britain and France go down, they'll sue for peace with Germany and probably only end up with a slap on the wrist.

Whether the slap is Angola (Including Cabinda), Equatorial-Guinea, Mozambique, Sao Tome or, Timor or some combination of the above is the Issue really.

Probably just Africa and the Atlantic islands, Japan had already grabbed most of the Chinese territories Germany held, so I doubt it would not to invest anymore in an obviously lost region.​

Actually, if you take a look at Germany's war plans, they weren't going for Belarus, the Ukraine, and Finland, only Poland and the Baltics. They just gobbled up Belarus and the Ukraine when they realized "Hey, Russia's fucked! Let's snatch as much as we can while they're ripping each other's heads off, m'kay?" As for Finland, the Germans basically said, "What? You want to be independent, too? Fine, we'll back you a bit, but you're pretty much gonna be on your own."

When the Germans and the Bolsheviks met in December, 1917, to discuss peace terms, the Germans asked for Poland and Lithuania to be independent (which were already occupied) and that was all. The Bolsheviks refused to cede any land or pay any indemnities so they walked out, which would later come back to bite them.

I have no idea why you think Lenin would surrender all of these areas in March of 1917 when he thought Russia could still hold onto them in February of 1918. ​

Trust me, just have Russia implode as it did IOTL. Once the Germans win, yeah, have 'em boot out the Reds. But until then, leave the Ostfront alone.​

That sounds more plausiable, but I don't think Russia could have held those areas down, particuarly the Ukraine and they would have broken away, as a civil war in Russia (which could well be three-way in this TL) was all but inevitable by this point.

Britain will still rule the sea after the defeat of France, but might be willing to sign a white peace.

The Spain thing is ASB.​

I'm not so sure, Britain didn't starve in 1917, because it had France and Brazil in the war on it's side, which gave the convoys extra protection, in the later case, bases the southern Atlantic to operate out of. It didn't starve in 1941/1942, because Germany wasn't really paying attention to them and then the US navy was involved. Neither of these would have been true with German triumphant on the continent and the US not involved in the war. I don't imagine for a moment, that Germany could have crushed Britain to the extent Britain crushed Germany in 1918, but starvation is quite a powerful weapon and it's probable Germany would be taking a lot of food from France and Italy, which would knock Britain's last sword out of it's hand.

I don't know what I was thinking about with Spain joining the war.​

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Just remember, the Germans starved too. And even with France gone, Britain can freely import food from the Dominions, the US and Latin America.

 

[teg]

Just remember, the Germans starved too. And even with France gone, Britain can freely import food from the Dominions, the US and Latin America.

Agreed, but with France and Italy knocked out, Germany would have access to their food markets (even without a surplus, it's concievable they would have been obliged to give the Central Powers food as part of any armistice). All the areas were Britain could get at extra food, were across the Atlantic, which could well be crawling with U-Boats (nigh impossible to destroy without aircraft carriers and good bombers, neither of which existed in 1917), the effect alone could be enough to stop many neutrals trading with Britain if it was obviously going to lose. Portugal would probably lose a few islands and it's African territory, Japan was so far away, it could probably just refuse to give up Germany's territories in the Far East and could probably get away with it.

 

[Wolfpaw]

teg,

With regards to Russia, I'd recommend using the tried-and-true OTL scenario with Brest-Litovsk and Germany (ITTL successfully)setting up its constellation of satellites in Eastern Europe. With Germany triumphant in the West, they'll be able to make sure most of the nastiness tearing apart Russia will not spill over into Belarus, the Baltics, and the Ukraine. Finland can (successfully) fend for itself.

Once Germany gets its house in order, have them support the Whites (if the Whites haven't won by now) in getting rid of the Reds.

What you want to do with the surviving White Russia is up to you. Personally, I like the restitution of a powerless monarchy in an otherwise Weimar-esque environment. Sometime in the late '20s, early '30s some quasi-fascist group (like the Black Hundreds or Mladorossi) takes power with the tacit support of the Tsar, get all revanchist and nationalistic and theocratic, and gear up for another round with Germany.

But that's just me.

Best of luck with your TL.

 

[Bill Cameron]

I'll concide that point, but I think U-boats could get through, they didn't have any trouble in the 1940s and with Germany in command of the French coast (I think part of the armistice, would be giving German ships access and denying British ships it), they would have a longer reach into the Atlantic than with just the Belgian or German coast.

Teg,

Sure, German submarines will be able to reach and then stage out of France's Atlantic ports. As they did in WW2, they'll reach those ports by exiting the North Sea between Scotland and Norway.

However, the High Seas Fleet, the dreadnoughts, battlecruisers, and other vessels, is not going to be able to do the same.


Bill

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Yup, even if the Germans got access to French ports, they wouldn't be able to use them due to the British fleet. Only uboats could sneak past the blockade.

I think a white peace is most likely between Germany and Britain if France is knocked out. A return to status quo. Germans might annex some small Portuguese colony if they wanted, but I think they'd most likely concentrate on annexing French colonies and Belgian Congo. Japan migh refuse to leave the occupied Pacific territories (Australia might do the same). At this point Germany can do nothing against it.

 

[teg]

Here's a revised timeline, based on the feedback, of the last months of the First World War in this TL and up till the end of 1918.

February 1917:
Zinnerman, is demoted for suggesting an alliance with the United States against Mexico. The Kaiser and generals agree now is not the time to antagonize the United States.
Furthermore, the decision is taken to postpone the restarting of unrestricted submarine warfare after protests from the USA and Brazil.

March 1917:
Severe industrial unrest and mutinies in the army, force tsar Nicholas II to abdicate. His brother, Mikhal opts not to take the throne, unless appointed by a democratic authority and the government passes to a Provisional government.

April 1917:
Realizing they do not have sufficent resources to resist Germany, the Provisional government asks for peace with the Central Powers. A peace treaty is quickly signed, with Russia surrendering the Baltic States and Poland. Nationalist revolts begin in the Ukraine, Belyorussia and Finland over independence.
A French offensive on the Aisne fails spectecuarly, triggering large scale mutinies in the French army, coupled with the collapse of a major member of the Entente. Neville attempts to regain control of the situation by draconian disclipline, but this merely intensifies the situation.

May 1917:
With it's most powerful ally defeated, Rumania asks the Central Powers for an armistice.
In Russia, the political situation countinues to deteroiate despite the end of the war, with fighting breaking out between the Provisional Government, Communist and tsarist militias.
The German army launches a major offensive on the Aisne, breaking the wavering French line, Italy and Portugal begin to send out peace feelers, but they hold for the moment.

June 1917:
Austro-Hungarian forces, backed by Germany, break through the Iszno line, driving to the Piave inside of a month. Facing communist uprisings in Milan and Turin, as well as revolts on Sicily and in Libya, the Italian government agrees to an armistice. Britain, France and Portugal are now the only members of the Entente left in the fight against the Central Powers.

July 1917:
Germany stand on the Marne. Ypres falls after three years of holding out against the German army. A French counter-offensive fails to dislodge the German army and Paris is heavily bombarded. Faced with a hopeless situation, the French government asks the Kaiser for an armistice.
German U-boats sneak through the British blockade and anchor at Brest, Bordaeux and Cherbourg.
Portugal asks the Central Powers for an armistice.
On July 28th, Germany resumes unrestricted submarine warfare. President Wilson protests, but is now no longer able to do anything about it.
The IRA begins a major revolt against the British government in Ireland, now with the support of the majority of the Irish population.

September 1917:
With no prospect of winning the war left, the British government asks the Kaiser for an armistice, on the basis of a white peace. With no real prospect of starving Britain out or invading, the German government agrees. The First World War has ended after three years.

October 1917:
After months of minor fighting between the various factions, Russia explodes into a three-way civil war that will last for over a decade. The Ukraine and Belyorussia declare independence and ask the German government for protection. Finland declares independence soon after, but remains isolationist.

November 1917:
Much delayed negoations between Austria and Hungary, over the fate of the Dual Monarchy occur. Frustrated by Hungary's refusal to export it's grain during the conflict, the decision is taken to federalise the Empire, Czechslovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Translyvania, Hungary and Austria become the United States of Central Europe
At the same time, Germany is frantically trying to set it's own house in order, setting up compliant governments in Belgium, Poland, the newly established Duchy of the Baltic and Rumania.

December 1917:
Japanese forces, begin the occupation of French Polynesia and Macuo, despite them expected to be annexed to Germany in the upcoming Peace of Frankfurt.
Arab uprisings break out in the Ottoman Empire, focused in Iraq and aroundd the river Jordan.

 

[The Sandman]

December 1917:
Arab uprisings break out in the Ottoman Empire, focused in Iraq and around the river Jordan.

Uh, why exactly? The only major uprising in OTL was in the Hedjaz, which then spread itself northwards, and that one mainly occurred because of a combination of perceived Ottoman weakness and overt British support. In TTL, the war is over, the British aren't going to be helping, and the Ottomans won (and also now have the entire army available to smash this sort of thing). There's no good reason for it.

 

[teg]

The Sandman

Sorry, but the Ottoman Empire was falling apart anyway, like the British and French Empire as the Second World War came to an end.
Given that Britain occupied a considerable section of the Ottoman Empire by the time of the peace with Germany, a lot of nationalist tensions would have been unleashed, just like the Japanese occupation of south-east Asia in the 1940s.
Also, although the British army is gone, they may well have left behind equipment to give the Germans a headache in the future.

 

[Redbeard]

Perhaps, but you must consider logistics here. A large factor in the collapse of numerous offensive operations during WWI was the great difficulty in keeping the advancing units supplied with ammunition, food and all the other stuff they needed. The nature of WWI attacks usually left the ground pulverized, making it almost impossible to move the supplies across in the numbers and at the speed necessary. The farther they moved from their railroads, the more difficult keeping the armies supplied became.

Therefore, if you want to take the armies that would have fought in Italy in 1918 and relocate them to France, you increase the logistical nightmare facing the Germans by a considerable margin. Yes, additional troops are nice, but the offensives could still slow down and eventually collapse because you have also massively increased the logistical effort needed.

WWI logistics indeed would have prevented a 2nd echelon continuing a full fledged (Entente type) assault on a retreating but basically unbroken line. The main problem would be moving forward (heavy) artillery and especially keeping it supplied with ammo.

But my impression of the 1918 Spring offensive is, that at a time when the Entente forces were on the edge of breaking, the German Assault Divisions simply had lost their momentum - the assault troops were grinded down from losses and exhaustion.

The German doctrine of late WWI to a large degree lessened the dependence on heavy and lengthy artillery bombardments but instead relied on well trained assualt troops co-ordinating fire and movement down to the single man. In OTL they had concentrated all high quality troops available on the West Front in the initial assault wave, and my hypothesis is, that an influx of the troops from the Italian Front (who used the assault tactics first) would have made it possible to keep up the pressure long enough for the 5th Army to vaporise.

The following exploitation would rely on the enemy not being able to put up a co-herrent dug-in resistance - one that can be defeated by movement and the ammo you can carry on your feet and horsebacks - and the defeat of the enemys will to fight. In OTL autumn of 1918 the CP armies theoretically started out as intact in good positions, but the Entente assault simply could be kept for so long that the CPs started cracking by late October, and apart from a few looneys everybody on CP side had to recognise that the war was lost, even though the Entente armies with their reliance on heavy fire support were even more restricted in the assault by logistics.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[yourworstnightmare]

About the federalization of AH; there won't be a Czechoslovakia, since the Czechs were on the Austrian half and the Slovaks on the Hungarian. A Czech Bohemia- Moravia is very possible (with german autonomy in the Sudets). Slovakia would probably either be considered a part of Hungary, or some kind of federation with Budapest.

 

[teg]

About the federalization of AH; there won't be a Czechoslovakia, since the Czechs were on the Austrian half and the Slovaks on the Hungarian. A Czech Bohemia- Moravia is very possible (with german autonomy in the Sudets). Slovakia would probably either be considered a part of Hungary, or some kind of federation with Budapest.

I didn't think about that, thanks.

I'm guessing the USCE would consist of:

Austria
Slovenia
Croatia
Bosnia
Serbia (becomes a state a little while later)
Hungary
Translyvania
Bohemia
Sudettenland
Montenegro
Piave-Iszno Italy (Italy gives up land from Iszno to Piave at Peace of Frankfurt, admitted later)
Galicia

The USCE would probably base it's constitution around the United States of America, with a few differences. The most obvious would be the presence of a monarchy (Austrian emperor is monarch of all the states) and the states each have their own citizenship (similar to pre-civil war USA). The various states, would also be more independent than the American states, with more variation in laws, governance etc...

Also a note on the Russian civil war, it's three sided (tsarists vs communists vs Provisional government) in this timeline. The tsarists are militarily the most powerful, having the loyalty of several army generals, but lacking the support of a large section of the population. The Communists and Provos lack the support of the army, but they have more international and public support. This civil war will probably go on into the late 1920s/early 30s, when someone intervenes in the conflict and the side they back wins (late 20s: probably Germany, it's satellites and the USCE, early 30s: resurgent Britain, France and Italy)

 

[machine3589]

I didn't think about that, thanks.

I'm guessing the USCE would consist of:

Austria
Slovenia
Croatia
Bosnia
Serbia (becomes a state a little while later)
Hungary
Translyvania
Bohemia
Sudettenland
Montenegro
Piave-Iszno Italy (Italy gives up land from Iszno to Piave at Peace of Frankfurt, admitted later)
Galicia

The USCE would probably base it's constitution around the United States of America, with a few differences. The most obvious would be the presence of a monarchy (Austrian emperor is monarch of all the states) and the states each have their own citizenship (similar to pre-civil war USA). The various states, would also be more independent than the American states, with more variation in laws, governance etc...

Ironically though, this makes splitting up the state far more easier. Plus, I think the entire South Slavic part would be put under one administration, and that the Sudetenland would be under Austria`s jurisdiction. Not to mention the vast minority rights the Germans outside of Austria-Sudetenland would get.

 

[teg]

Here the next's part of the timeline (1918 to Treaty of Frankfurt)

February 1918:
Delegates from the Central Powers, as well as Japan and the British Empire, meet in Frankfurt to discuss a final peace treaty to end the First World War. Also, present are the United States of America as an observer, as well as the defeated Entente nations of France, Serbia, Belgium, Italy and Rumania. All the Russian factions insist they have a right to attend, but are denied unless a single Russian delegation comes forward.

March 1918:
After several weeks of negation, with the Entente securing some minor concessions from the Central Powers, the terms of the Treaty of Frankfurt are published.

TREATY OF FRANKFURT (March 17th 1918)​

Signatures of all representatives from Germany, the USCE, Bulgaria, the Ottoman Empire, Japan, Britain, France, Belgium, Serbia, Rumania and Italy

1. The following states are to be recgonized by all parties: the Republic of the Ukraine, the Republic of Belyorussia, the Duchy of the Baltic, the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Poland.
2. France, with immediate effect will seceede the following territory to the German Empire: French West Africa, (with the exception of Algeria) Southern Lorraine, Madagascar, Dibjouti and the French Carribean.
3. Luxembourg will be annexed to the German Reich.
4. Italy, will with immediate effect, seceede the following land to the United States of Central Europe: all land north and east of the Piave River. They will also seceede Libya to the Ottoman Empire. Italian East Africa is annexed by the Empire of Ethiopia.
5. Serbia, will hence by annexed by the United States of Central Europe, with the exception of Macedonia, which reverts to Bularia.
6. Rumania will seceede, with immediate effect, Translyvania to the United States of Central Europe and Moldovia to the Republic of the Ukraine. All territorial losses of the Second Balkan War are to revert to Bulgaria.
7. Belgium, will accept German domination in it's affairs, allowing German troops and ships into it's borders. They will also seceede the Belgian Congo to Germany.
8. The Kingdom of Britain and Ireland will accept German hegemony in Europe, in return for a free hand in East Africa (except German East Africa and Madagascar and India.
9. Japan will gain the territories of Chisintago and the German Pacific, in return for a payment to be settled by both parties at a later date.
10. The Kingdoms of Italy and Rumania, will pay reperations, as will the French Third Republic, to be set at a later date, by a commission. Reperations will go to the USCE, the German Empire, Kingdom of Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire.
11. France and Italy will drop all claims on German and USCE territory
12. Italy, France, Serbia, Rumania, Belgium and Russia, will accept full responsibility for the causing of the First World War.
13. Secret Clauses: Japan reserves right to annexe French Indochina and Polynesia. The Kingdom of Greece will also have the same right with the Italian islands in the Aegaen. The United States of America, is to be given a free hand in all of the Americas, with the exception of German, British or Dutch territories. Japan to be given free hand in China and the western Pacific, except for the Philipines. French and Italian war reperations, will also contribute to the repaying of war loans from the USA and compensation for lost ships in the 1915 submarine campaign.
14. This concludes the Treaty of Frankfurt

I'm sure I've missed some things out, so feel free to raise points and ask for reasons for the various clauses.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, I think the best way to calm the Magyars down is to only carve out Croatia from Hungary, and allow them to keep Transylvania, the Banat and Slovakia. Where is Bukovina on your list? Is it federated with Galizia??

I'd not have A-H annexing Serbia, instead I'd think they'd annex Montenegro and the Sandjak of Novi Pazar (old Austrian claim). Instead Serbia would be humiliated, lose not onle Macedonia to Bulgaria, but also the Nis area, and be forced to pay heavy reparations to Vienna.

I'd perhaps also keep Slovenia and the Italian speaking areas Austrian. My plan for federated A-H;
Austria
Bohemia-Moravia with autonomy for Sudetenland (Austrian Silesia included)
Galizia
Bukovina (Perhaps in union with Galizia)
Croatia (with Dalmatia)
Bosnia (with Novi Pazar and Montenegro)

 

[BernieP2]

The Monroe Doctrine is still in Play.

Very interesting timeline and the Treaty of Frankfurt (am Main? vs an der Oder) is very good at redrawing the map of Europe, (much like Metternich and 1815).

However a small nit, as much as French claims in the Caribbean would be welcomed by Berlin, the US would not - make that could not allow it to happen under the Monroe Doctrine -- e.g. no swapping of colonial possessions in the Americas. A revision to a US Commonwealth similar to Puerto Rico is more likely.

Also the fate of Luxembourg isn't really addressed. I would Posit that it would become another constituent of the "ewiger Bund" that was the Second Reich."
http://www.deutsche-kaiserreich.de/

Does Britain's "free Hand" in East Africa include Deutsch-ostafrika? http://www.deutsche-schutzgebiete.de/deutsche-kolonien.htm

The intervention of the Reich in the affairs of Belgium is probably not something permanent. A more plausible rendition might be the separation of the frenchphone areas from the dutchphones and re assimilation to the Netherlands Kingdom of the Dutch speakers. Leaving a rump French speaking Walloonia-Belgium -- ripe for more French intrigues. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Revolution

Thanks for the time to put this all together ... the seeds of an alternate 20th century. Oh what could have been ....???


Bernie P2