How costly would operation Husky have been with full German attention on Sicily/the Med?

[Czechguy]

What if the Soviet Union is defeated or negotiates around April/May 1943 and the Germans rush everything they can to reinforce the Med/Sicily? The Wallies on the other hand go forward with Husky, hoping that the Germans did not have enough time to reinforce the island. When they land in July there are an extra 3-4 German divisions and an extra 200 to 300 German tanks/aircraft/guns stationed on the island compared to OTL. An additional 10 German Divisions with 1000 tanks and aircraft are sent as reinforcements a week after the landing and will arrive by late July.

How long will the battle for Sicily take and how high would the casualties be for both sides?

 

[marathag]

What if the Soviet Union is defeated or negotiates around April/May 1943 and the Germans rush everything they can to reinforce the Med/Sicily?

Going to need Germantroops for occupation if defeated, or as a watch force if negotiated 'peace', so limits how many can be moved west

 

[ennobee]

Yes..... IF ONLY!!!
If only Germany had the manpower to spare and the infrastructure to get it to Sicily in time.

Best case scenario - for Germany that is-, Germany and Italy have about as any troops on the mainland as Germany had in France OTL. However as in France, they never expect the massive landings to occur in Sicily - an island for God's sake- and concentrate all their efforts on Bari. Like in France, the landing in Sicily will be an AH version of the D-day landings in Normandy. Casualties on both sides will be just as high but eventually like France and Sicily OTL, the allies will break out and liberate Rome.

The worst case scenario: Germany's generals, all glory hounds to the extreme will take the 10 divisions freed up from Russia and promptly start a new campaign, may be through Turkey and into Iraq, may be another attempt to take Malta, may be out of pure boredom and because no one had any better idea, they finally get around to invading Switzerland or Sweden.... Give them another 6 months and they actually will withdraw troops from Sicily to deploy in the new campaign. And by the time operation Husky comes around, troops and fortifications in Sicily are back to OTL.

 

[Georgepatton]

What if the Soviet Union is defeated or negotiates around April/May 1943 and the Germans rush everything they can to reinforce the Med/Sicily? The Wallies on the other hand go forward with Husky, hoping that the Germans did not have enough time to reinforce the island. When they land in July there are an extra 3-4 German divisions and an extra 200 to 300 German tanks/aircraft/guns stationed on the island compared to OTL. An additional 10 German Divisions with 1000 tanks and aircraft are sent as reinforcements a week after the landing and will arrive by late July.

How long will the battle for Sicily take and how high would the casualties be for both sides?

Are you asking what would have happened had the Allies landed as they did in OTL, and are now facing this larger German force, or are you asking how the operation might have played out accounting for changes the Allies might make in response? Because I guess its hard to imagine they would do nothing differently.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The Allies would never have gone forward with Husky in that case. They only did it IOTL due to the fact that they had managed to divert Axis divisions to other islands in the Mediterranean. Especially given US aversion to the Italian campaign they'd likely have pushed instead to invade France early.