How come white settlement in Angola and Mozambique?

[modelcitizen]

For comparison, Florida in the year 1900 had half a million people, and nearly half of them were former slaves and their descendants.

Florida was the least-populated southern US state. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida )

Introduce the magic of air conditioning.

By 1950, Florida's population was 2.8 million. Ten years after that, five million. ( http://www.npg.org/states/fl.htm )

From 1900 to 2000, population went from half a million to 16 million people.

(Largely "white" settlement in a tropical part of the world, facilitated by HVAC tech.)

 

[Viriato]

I can't find now the number of "retornados" that left only Angola. But according to official statistics in 1975 there were in Portugal 505,000 people who lived in the colonies before, and they composed 5% of the Portuguese population. Of these, 300,000 were born in Portugal but moved later to the colonies. Most of them lived originally in Angola, that according to the census of 1970 had a population of 5.6 million people. Some sources say the number of retornados was even higher, up to 800,000 people.

I think the 505,000 total is a gross undercount. When you look at the number of births and deaths in Portugal between 1973 and 1981 and you subtract the net migration (emigration and return emigration) the numbers come to around 837,000. Hence, the 800,000 number being quoted more often than not.

One has to remember that the 505,000 number was estimated 1981. Between 1974 and 1981 there was a much larger number of retornados that emigrated to other countries than the general population. Many, especially from Mozambique never made it back to the "metropole". Around 80,000 Portuguese still lived in Angola by 1980 and there were around 40,000 still in Mozambique by that time. Also, large numbers from Mozambique emigrated to South Africa and Rhodesia, with smaller numbers going to Australia and the Americas.

 

[Viriato]

This was a very good post, and I think it was the first to properly answer my question. Do you really think places like the Congo and West Africa would have attracted a lot of white settlement if they'd have still been colonies in the 1970s? Why do you think Tanzania and Uganda were never settled in a manner similar to Kenya?

It depends on the immigration politics of the ruling power and the particular colony or protectorate. Settling in Africa was generally very restricted, especially in Tanganyika and Uganda where African interests were to be paramount. However, in both countries the European population doubled in the postwar period (mainly due to increased economic development). In the Belgian Congo the European population more than doubled from 1950-1960 as well.

Interestingly in the pro-Western Ivory Coast the European population increased from around 20,000 at independence to 50,000 by 1975. Gabon too, which had under 10,000 Europeans, had over 50,000 by the mid-1970s. Both countries had pro-Western regimes and welcomed highly-skilled French expats.

If colonial rule were to last longer, I think you would see a lot more Europeans living in certain parts of Africa especially for the climate. For instance, Gambia with under 1,000 Europeans at independence developed into a major tourist spot could have had European snowbirds had it continued under British rule. The same goes for the coastal areas of Kenya.

 

[katchen]

The biggest impediment to white settlement in Africa was the tsetse fly. The second biggest impediment was the sheer loss of life from the two world wars, which reduced the population of young people in Europe. And I suppose the third impediment postwar would have been the spread of birth control technology in Europe.
The tsetse fly held back white settlement well into the 19th Century. Coupled with Africa's landforms, which meant waterfalls and rapids at it's continental margins, the fly killed draft animals and meant that all travel would be on foot until someone could construct a railroad. And that agriculture had to be either from orchards or by digging stick or hoe. The agriculture did not change, except in tsetse fly free zones, until tractors and harvesting machines came in, first using steam and then, internal combustion energy by the 1920s.
By then, the two major colonial powers in Africa, Great Britain and France had lost much of their young people to the war and had few young people inclined to immigrate, few young people with the need to immigrate from the UK to the Dominions (and for those who did, Canada, Australia and New Zealand were much more congenial and for the French Algeria) and the Germans had lost all of their colonies. Belgium and Portugal simply had too small populations to generate that many potential migrants and Italy, too small colonies. World War II made the situation even worse, especially when the birthrate fell off.
Decolonization was simply a moralization of a necessity; preventing colonists of differing race and ethnicity from migrating to the mother country and overwhelming the static or declining populations there. Decolonization made it possible to transition to American style imperialism in which rule or influence is indirect, through local elites.


If one WOULD have a large white (or white/mulatto) population in Angola and Mozambique, and possibly much more of Africa, this will require a POD somewhere around 1808, after the Portuguese Crown flees to Brazil. The King must decide that Portugal, here in Brazil, will devote resources to building a large navy. Brazil certainly has the wood for it; at Belem if nowhere else. Then, using these ships, as Portugal is reconquered from Napoleon, displaced people are transported to Brazil as bound servants to work off the cost of their passage, rather than left to starve in Portugal.
This leaves Brazil with a lot more people 10 years later and for the King to be able to resist pressure to return to Lisbon. Portugal and Brazil stay together as an anomaly, a part of Europe governed from the New World, much to Great Britain's dismay. And by 1825, that anomaly has opened Angola and Mozambique to white settlement from a much larger population base. --and after sending an explorer from one to the other, disproving the theory that the interior of Africa is a desert.

 

[Admiral Matt]

A good thread for informed discussion, this.

What's most interesting is the implications. There seems to be room for timelines exploring a Portugal that retained its African provinces much longer, perhaps even to the present day. It would take a truly odd political settlement Lisbon for no one to accept separation for forty years, but that seems to be the only absolute requirement.

I imagine things would get dicey around the same time the Soviets and Apartheid were coming unstuck, but it'd be a fascinating timeline to explore. Albeit kind of a people's history sort.

In 1975, the Portuguese colonial empire surviving marked them as behind the curve. But a generation later its survival might be seen quite differently. Marking it and France in a separate category of modern state, perhaps.

 

[Viriato]

For comparison, Florida in the year 1900 had half a million people, and nearly half of them were former slaves and their descendants.

Florida was the least-populated southern US state. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida )

Introduce the magic of air conditioning.

By 1950, Florida's population was 2.8 million. Ten years after that, five million. ( http://www.npg.org/states/fl.htm )

From 1900 to 2000, population went from half a million to 16 million people.

(Largely "white" settlement in a tropical part of the world, facilitated by HVAC tech.)

Not just Florida, but really the entire Sunbelt region of the United States. Most of the growth since the 1960s in the US has been in this region. Without air conditioning, Arizona and Nevada would never have seen their populations explode the way they did.

 

[Simreeve]

Without air conditioning, I remember reading somewhere, the British Foreign Office classified Washington DC as a hardship posting....

 

[Admiral Matt]

Without air conditioning, I remember reading somewhere, the British Foreign Office classified Washington DC as a hardship posting....

Huh. I thought that was the malaria.

 

[Simreeve]

Huh. I thought that was the malaria.

Possibly both factors?

 

[Thoresby]

Without air conditioning, I remember reading somewhere, the British Foreign Office classified Washington DC as a hardship posting....

It did and the disease environment was the reason but considering the weather shapes the disease environment I suppose it's to blame.

 

[katchen]

Portugal an oddity among states

A good thread for informed discussion, this.

What's most interesting is the implications. There seems to be room for timelines exploring a Portugal that retained its African provinces much longer, perhaps even to the present day. It would take a truly odd political settlement Lisbon for no one to accept separation for forty years, but that seems to be the only absolute requirement.

I imagine things would get dicey around the same time the Soviets and Apartheid were coming unstuck, but it'd be a fascinating timeline to explore. Albeit kind of a people's history sort.

In 1975, the Portuguese colonial empire surviving marked them as behind the curve. But a generation later its survival might be seen quite differently. Marking it and France in a separate category of modern state, perhaps.

Perhaps so. And it would have been for the best if Portugal could have retained it's overseas territories AS overseas territories and integrated them into a democratic Greater Portugal on a one man one vote basis. It would have avoided three ruinous civil wars in Angola, Mozambique and East Timor, for one thing, that killed many people, and set all three territories as well as Guinea Bissau on a path to economic growth of which only Angola currently is on. Metropolitan Portugal, too would be both growing and solvent, with Lisbon and Douro being predominantly African cities and huge and growing populations from African migration. But because Portugal chose such a radically different path from the other EU members, Portugal would probably not be permitted to be part of the EU. The EU wants decolonization, not integration of former colonies into the metropolitan nation. And the EU finds any member nation with a rapidly growing population potentially destabilizing.

 

[Marius]

Perhaps so. And it would have been for the best if Portugal could have retained it's overseas territories AS overseas territories and integrated them into a democratic Greater Portugal on a one man one vote basis. It would have avoided three ruinous civil wars in Angola, Mozambique and East Timor, for one thing, that killed many people, and set all three territories as well as Guinea Bissau on a path to economic growth of which only Angola currently is on. Metropolitan Portugal, too would be both growing and solvent, with Lisbon and Douro being predominantly African cities and huge and growing populations from African migration. But because Portugal chose such a radically different path from the other EU members, Portugal would probably not be permitted to be part of the EU. The EU wants decolonization, not integration of former colonies into the metropolitan nation. And the EU finds any member nation with a rapidly growing population potentially destabilizing.

Would the Portuguese have been prepared to integrate the colonies fully? Surely they would know that at some point, if they allowed 'one man one vote' the colonies would be able to outvote the metropole.

Also, it is not a foregone conclusion that the colonies would want to be completely integrated into Portugal. They may want independence even if they are offered full integration into Portugal.

And I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

Only about 500 people are benefiting from Angola's oil wealth. The vast majority of the population are not seeing any of the trickle down of the wealth.

The Dos Santos family run Angola as if it is their personal property.

 

[katchen]

That, I don't know. But I can say this. If they did, they would be one of the biggest nations in Europe instead of one of the smaller nations in Europe.

 

[Clandango]

Would the Portuguese have been prepared to integrate the colonies fully? Surely they would know that at some point, if they allowed 'one man one vote' the colonies would be able to outvote the metropole.

it probably wouldn't matter. Portuguese ports in India where build up centuries ago from nothing and where supposed to be part of the Portuguese metropole but were invaded by India anyways. If the area isn't as white as a lily then nearby countries might claim the land as their own. If the POD was before 1990 then they might be integrated if their was a king and privy council as it might be too at for elected people to go. Depends on their ships. Cape Verde and Portuguese Guinea... They seem closer and perhaps easier to integrate as a test run. Luanda, Buganda, and Cabinda would be good follow ups. The Portuguese would not need to control all of the interior so long as they could funnel the resources to their ports and had enough land for producing cash crops.

 

[Clandango]

That, I don't know. But I can say this. If they did, they would be one of the biggest nations in Europe instead of one of the smaller nations in Europe.

I'd post the image, but my mobile doesn't allow only seeing it without the rest of the page. It would not quite count as one of the biggest nations in Europe since most of the land would be overseas. Also, how shall we all define White? Include certain north Indians, Arabs, etc?

http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/390-portugal-is-not-a-small-country

 

[miguelrj]

And it would have been for the best if Portugal could have retained it's overseas territories AS overseas territories and integrated them into a democratic Greater Portugal on a one man one vote basis.

To fend off decolonization pressure the Portuguese regime promoted the argument that Portugal was conceptually pluricontinental and pluriracial. That ideology had also been promoted internally and it was somehow accepted given the small country complex the Portuguese suffered from.

With that said, the color blind society was little more than a façade. The White Portuguese would not allow their vote to be diluted.

In other conditions the Portuguese would happily integrate smaller colonies the way the French did, potentially even leaving a larger non-White percentage of the population within the Republic. But I simply cannot see Portugal creating a federation where the Metropole is outvoted by Angola and Mozambique.

 

[Clandango]

To fend off decolonization pressure the Portuguese regime promoted the argument that Portugal was conceptually pluricontinental and pluriracial. That ideology had also been promoted internally and it was somehow accepted given the small country complex the Portuguese suffered from.

With that said, the color blind society was little more than a façade. The White Portuguese would not allow their vote to be diluted.

In other conditions the Portuguese would happily integrate smaller colonies the way the French did, potentially even leaving a larger non-White percentage of the population within the Republic. But I simply cannot see Portugal creating a federation where the Metropole is outvoted by Angola and Mozambique.

Hence they could use other methods of dealing with things. Rotten boroughs, literacy tests, poll taxes, the need to be registered, certain tribes allied to the Portuguese over the centuries who might not be liked by the interior for exporting slaves, maybe toss in some autonomous region statuses... The last mart might not be the easiest to do, as their friendliest kingdoms were those on the coasts, who would be annexed first. I believe their are some maps and threads on here describing which areas of the colonies to spin-off into allies or to ditch.

 

[miguelrj]

That was the plan. Drag on reforms that would allow the black franchise to increase (even though that in a country where elections were a sham that was kind of moot). Up to a point IOTL there could not be officially racist laws but some policies indirectly had the same effect...

 

[Clandango]

That was the plan. Drag on reforms that would allow the black franchise to increase (even though that in a country where elections were a sham that was kind of moot). Up to a point IOTL there could not be officially racist laws but some indirectly had the same effect...

Heck, why not have a bit of a population exchange so as to get Indians, Timorese, Chinese, those of mixed race, and the variety of Africans moving to each other's lands. I expect they would come to hate each other more than the Whites, if only because of historical precedent. That or are more able to show it, since the whites would be armed to the teeth.

 

[miguelrj]

Heck, why not have a bit of a population exchange so as to get Indians, Timorese, Chinese, those of mixed race, and the variety of Africans moving to each other's lands. I expect they would come to hate each other more than the Whites, if only because of historical precedent. That or are more able to show it, since the whites would be armed to the teeth.

Because that would be evil?
Actually, it couldn't have been done in large scale because - other than whites - Portugal didn't have a pool of millions to move to Africa. There were several ethinc Asians in Mozambique. Some Africans moved from one colony to another. But nothing in the scale that could disrupt the autoctonous demography.