How can Uganda win the Uganda-Tanzanian war

Looking back, Uganda seems to be poised to lose the war.

The Simba Batallion mutiny is the main cause of Ugandan incursion of Tanzania, which led to war. If Simba didn't mutinied, there would be no war. At least, not in 1978

Moreover, Uganda is on really tight economic budget. United States, their biggest coffe importer (and Uganda's source of 40% of their oil), has just boycotted them. Coincidentally, the coffe price also slumped. Politically, in 1978 Amin had just survived a coup by his Vice-President's (Mustafa Adrisi) supporter. This coup fractured the military badly, as like Amin, Adrisi power base lies in military

Through it is also to be noted that Tanzania's army was concentrated in their southern border with Mozanbique with the whole civil war going down there. I suppose if the Ugandan can pull a blitz they can take Bukoba quick enough. But as I said, Uganda is in ruins and in no position to pull a miracle

So I suppose the moment Ugandan army crossed the border in 1978, they're ducked.
 
By any chance, have you heard about Simba Rebellion?
"Simba Battalion" and "Simba Rebellion" sound like terms someone writing a crack-fic about Africa would use, in order to try to get laughs from his/her readers (seeing it as a Lion King reference of sorts).
Which is a sad demonstration of how little too many of us know about Africa.
 
Moreover, Uganda is on really tight economic budget. United States, their biggest coffe importer (and Uganda's source of 40% of their oil), has just boycotted them. Coincidentally, the coffe price also slumped.
Could the Soviets replace Us for both coffee and oil ?

Politically, in 1978 Amin had just survived a coup by his Vice-President's (Mustafa Adrisi) supporter. This coup fractured the military badly, as like Amin, Adrisi power base lies in military
If the war was delayed, Could Amin fix the fractures in the military ?
 
Libyan forces perform a better job in destroying the Tanzanian 201st brigade that came to obstruct their route to Masaka in OTL. Either that, or have the 201st brigade fail to reorganise and get defeated. Pretty much just to find a way for the Tanzanians to perform badly enough to a point that the Libyans can go through with their attack on Masaka.
 
Libyan forces perform a better job in destroying the Tanzanian 201st brigade that came to obstruct their route to Masaka in OTL. Either that, or have the 201st brigade fail to reorganise and get defeated. Pretty much just to find a way for the Tanzanians to perform badly enough to a point that the Libyans can go through with their attack on Masaka.
Could Libya and Uganda follow up on this or would just delay the defeat ?
 
Could Libya and Uganda follow up on this or would just delay the defeat ?
The latter, I suppose. Not only do they seem to have eventually outnumbered the ugandans badly, they also strike me as somewhat better one on one - but I might just have misinterpreted something.
 
Could the Soviets replace Us for both coffee and oil ?
Soviets are in tight spot. They're buddy-buddy with both Uganda and Tanzania (Nyerere was a socialist, remember). This put them in tight spot, especially since Idi was clearly the agressor here, in the eye of most of East Africa

If the war was delayed, Could Amin fix the fractures in the military ?
I suppose. However, in 1976-1978, Idi Amin face increasing challange to his rule. 1976, 100 students was shot dead protesting his rule. In 1977, an Archbishop have a "car accident" after protesting his rule. In 1978, attempted coup by his Vice President. I think even without the war Amin got no time left
 
Soviets are in tight spot. They're buddy-buddy with both Uganda and Tanzania (Nyerere was a socialist, remember). This put them in tight spot, especially since Idi was clearly the agressor here, in the eye of most of East Africa
I think they'd have to side with Tanzania here for the same reason they chose Ethiopia over Somalia.
 
I think they'd have to side with Tanzania here for the same reason they chose Ethiopia over Somalia.
Yep, its kind of similar to Ogaden War. In fact, the Ugandan-Tanzanian War happens just after it. I don't know enough about Oganden War (and in fact, Kagera War, actually) to contrast both, however
 
Still, Ugandan military was in shambles, economically destitute, and Ugandan initial attack was just tantamount to a raid (they come, they loot, they burned a bridge, they retreated). Even Tanzania won't go to an offensive across border if not because a) fear of second attack and b) Ugandan exile pressure group
 
I know tanks weren't the deciding factor in the war, but Idi was throwing third hand T-34s and fourth hand Shermans at Tanzania's Type-59s (Chinese T-55s). That's quite the disparity.
 
Its hard to gauge. Depending on popular support on monarchy, they'll be strong separationist movement. But probably the rebels just wanted united Uganda, balanced but united
 
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