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I am currently working on a TL which, after reading a number of other TLs on this website, I realize has some nigh-impossible problems with what I have planned for World War 2. I would like advice on how to make any (or all) of the following planning points possible.

I am posting in this forum since while the TL itself is ASB, discussing requirements for Japan to still exist as a serious concept given a different WWII is After 1900 AFAIK. Also, more serious discussion over here in this forum AFAIK than over there.

Granted, they are for the most part not quite as ASB as the Fall of France and the OTL Southern Resource Area.

INITIAL:
Canada is on huge, ASB tier steroids in this timeline. ("For all I know, Dad was an Alien Space Bat in disguise... which is why to not get enslaved as a broodmare and science experiment we had to amass as much power as possible to become unassailable" is basic backstory of SI factional leadership which basically controls the country, it's a long story). It has circa 18 million population in 1936, very multicultural, Mexico is a "close friend" e.g. more or less Client State due to intervention in 1912-1915. Spain is also a friend due to them saving the Republicans during the Civil War.

FINAL OUTCOME CALLS FOR:

  • USSR not directly involved (until maybe late 1947 to early 1948, intervening in Manchuria under the name of "Saving the civilians for our friend China"). Hitler's hate-boner prioritized someone else (SI, and by association the British Empire and Spain). Stalin's bloody nose in Finland made him more cautious and defensive.
  • Germany soundly beaten in 1947, probably at least 30 million total German deaths (just over 40% of population). Thank goodness for Heisenberg convincing them the atom bomb was impossible, as inspired by Anglo-American Nazi War.
  • Due to absolute refusal to let the Emperor off, Japanese government does not surrender before invasion. (The Allies are NOT letting them have another stabbed-in-the-back myth, even if it has to be pounded in by building mountains of skulls!)
  • Korea and Japanese Home Islands invaded (by US and SI respectively, the latter mounting an invasion straight across the Pacific with the merchant fleets freed from the Atlantic) in 1947. At least 70 million deaths out of initial population of about 110M in total between Korea, Manchuria and Japan. Of the Home Islands population of about 70 million at least 50 million deaths must be inflicted.
  • Hirohito survives the war, and the institution of the Emperor is not destroyed. (I'm not sure how I can do this given the savagery of the long war) SI leadership has no intention of having to be paranoid around all remaining Japanese people, including their own citizens, for a few hundred years.
  • Japan partitioned between North Japan under SI occupation, with the capital in Tokyo in theory (de facto Sapporo), and South Japan under US occupation, with the capital in Kyoto (de facto Hiroshima, though even Kyoto is negotiable, could be Osaka on paper if SI Army pushes far enough fast enough). Stalin is content to watch the two North American powers dispute among themselves, so doesn't push the Sakhalin and Kurils issue too much. However, there is still a North Korea (eventually resolved in Korean War, in a way Stalin and Mao could both accept, as another North-South friction point for the North Americans)
  • Most impossibly, Ishihara Shintaro, who will eventually be elected mayor of Kyoto, will still have his OTL revisionist beliefs later in the timeline. HOW?????

I will list the parts of my planning that have some problems with this outcome (other than the MAJOR ASB of Fall of France and Southern Resource Area being about as bad or worse for the Allies as OTL due to the SI Army being busy elsewhere)...

1. (Minor ASB) Vichy France allows one of these:
a) German military transit rights to invade Republican Spain (won Civil War with SI Army help, but internally squabbling over governmental systems)
b) transit rights and a strip of territory on the border with Spain to launch an invasion of Spain from, without attacking from Vichy French soil.
(Spain is the main theater ITL, replacing OTL Russia.)

2. (Minor ASB) Despite the huge loss of river/canal barges in 1941-1942 to the British trap called Sealion (though the Germans got a bit further than the British expected before being crushed) the German economy, with trade through Russia (in OTL early 1941 a non-belligerent Axis signatory), clings on (until late 1946) somehow.

3. (MAJOR ASB) Yamamoto manages to convince Tojo and enough others that the Americans do not have the will to pursue aggressive war beyond a couple of decisive defeats, but that a perceived defensive war would be prosecuted to the finish. The trick to defeat America is then to make them declare war under dubious circumstances or have the US public see it as outright aggression to protect the colonial empires. The fools would of course sit on their hands and dither for years while Japan took care of its resource problems. As a result of strict enforcement of this in the IJN, JAPAN DOES NOT ATTACK US directly... YET.

4. (Minor ASB). Roosevelt does not manage to manufacture a good "wounded gazelle gambit" to declare war on Japan before 1944.

5. (Implausible) Attack on Vancouver, a major Japanese Internment Camp near Vancouver (SI faction leaders fought in China in 1937-1938 with a few divisions of their troops, fairness to Japs in coastal area = lolwut), and Mexico City sometime in 1943 with plague-bearing fleas by IJN I-400 class submarines.
5a) US STILL does NOT declare war on Japan since public opinion says it's just a bunch of "chink-lovers" (Canadians are REALLY unpopular with MuriKKKa ITL), "Yellow monkeys" (the interned Japanese), and "Mexicans" (needs no explanation). They're waiting for the others to exhaust themselves before swooping in to save the day and get a controlling place at the winner's table, as they'd wanted to do in WWI (As they did OTL, ITL rather less so).

6. The US finally declares war when convenient for them in 1944 after the Japanese have been ground to a halt and have been whittled down by British and SI forces.

7. (Implausible) Morale declines in the SI Army invading Japan's northern holdings across the Pacific, and then forcing the shores of northern Honshu, in late 1947. The army comes to a halt at the "Niigata Line" for the winter. Constant propaganda efforts to portray their army as the Good Guys means trudging through kilometers of human sludge waist-deep in some places after rocket artillery bombardment and mass heavy flamethrower use is, ah, unhelpful for morale, and so the offensive is halted for the winter. Thankfully, the Japanese are quite retarded enough to use plague on their own people, and send masses of just-infected civilians to surrender in hopes of infecting the invaders.
Between this, Japanese use of fake pregnancies as suicide bombing, Japanese use of the few surviving newborns as bait on land mines and other traps, and the discovery that every woman age 12 to 50 in northern Honshu has been injected with syphilis in hopes of incapacitating the invaders, the will to advance is "restored".

8. (LOLWUT level of ASB) The war ends with less than half (??? ORLY?) of German population killed by the time of surrender in 1947, and about 30% survival rate in the Japanese Home Islands when they surrender in 1948. The latter is negotiable, I can shave this down to 20% if needed, but the initial overrun zones in Sakhalin, Kurils, Hokkaido and northern Honshu should keep it over 10 million survivors out of 70 million even if the rest of the Home Islands were almost completely slaughtered by the two Allied armies grinding over it. On the other hand, North Japan will be forced to stop that silly immigration restriction that requires Japanese fathers.

I am having large problems rationalizing Japan surviving to such a degree as to actually host two puppet organized governments. We're talking about casualties in the same order of magnitude as Decisive Darkness by The Red, with comparable problems in the American-occupied zone and markedly less so in the SI occupied zone. After all, moving the Atlantic merchant fleets over to supply them with food and having far less racist attitudes makes a big difference in level of civilization collapse that occurs, and Hokkaido was a food producer region anyhow.

Please advise on how the hell I can make these make sense (e.g. prop South Japan up instead of just leaving them to die and letting Canada deal with them while using South Korea as the US base in the Far East) without having the US hate Canada and Mexico enough to actually seriously consider trying a variant of War Plan Red at some point. The Interbellum US Army confident in its MuriKKKan Cepshunalizm, with MacNair helping, smashing into the best mechanized army with the best tanks in the world, self-propelled guns with Royal Artillery tier training, etc.... would not make for the sort of desperate struggle I'd like to write.

I will preemptively thank you for any advice you can give on how to manage to have 20 million Japanese survivors in the Home Islands. How not to kill more than half of Germany by 1947 (presume Hitler survived that long in reasonable health, instead of Himmler coming to power, because that's AANW tier brutality) would also be very helpful.
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