How big can the Soviet Union get?

Having Finland become an independent Socialist state first and then (more or less) voluntarily choosing to apply a membership in the nascent Soviet state, could well provide a blueprint for building the Soviet Union as well as butterfly "socialism in one country" and give the internationalists in USSR a leading position.
Are you sure it would be like this? Great Duchy's status was unique in the Russian Empire, but would "Finnish Soviet Republic" joining USSR in 1922 be seen as "independent state voluntarily joining" by either it's leadership or big wide world? I mean, it isn't like Moscow had more influence over "Ukrainian Soviet Republic" in 1918 than it would have over "Finnish", would reds win there.
How to make it happen is another question entirely, of course.
Finnish Soviet Republic (independent one) is less ASB than many other events of 1918 in former Russian Empire. Winner of Finnish Civil War was decided by a foreign invasion IOTL, Make German support for Whites a little weaker (keep Germany a bit more involved in some other corner of Mitteleuropa), Russian (or, rather, Bolshevik) support for Reds a little stronger (I dunno, opening Imperial armouries to them seems like a good start) and bingo.
 
I've been trying to read up on possible Soviet expansion, and assuming the revolution is carried out in the same date with a POD post-1918, how large could the Soviet Union possibly get?

I doubt that new SSRs would be admitted, if doing so would make Russians a minority of the USSR population. So Finland and Mongolia are plausible SSRs, but probably not Poland.
 
Are you sure it would be like this? Great Duchy's status was unique in the Russian Empire, but would "Finnish Soviet Republic" joining USSR in 1922 be seen as "independent state voluntarily joining" by either it's leadership or big wide world? I mean, it isn't like Moscow had more influence over "Ukrainian Soviet Republic" in 1918 than it would have over "Finnish", would reds win there.

"Finnish Soviet Republic" is kind of a misnomer here. The Red Government itself called the country the Republic of Finland and I think internationally it would have been called a (Socialist) Workers' Republic.

Anyway, what the international community or even parts of the Finnish (Red) government think is not important, it matters what Lenin and buddies think in Petrograd. Lenin himself approved Finnish independence on the assumption that the country will later join the USSR. After Red victory, this would be quite likely. Thus, a successful example that by giving economic and military support to Red revolutions abroad will can make the Workers' State grow. And a possible cumulative effect in the Baltic states: IOTL, it was the Finnish (White) Army that sent volunteers to fight in Estonia, ITTL it will be the Reds. If Finland and the Baltic states go red before 1920, it will have a strenghtening effect on further Socialist revolutions/insurrections in Eastern Europe. Is it strong enough to bring more countries into the Soviet fold is anyone's guess, but the chances will not be worse than they were IOTL, at least.

It would not be such a stretch to say that seeing revolution checked just next door in Finland and the Baltics contributed a lot to the framing of SiOC: by removing that, we already add serious butterflies to the development of the early Soviet policies.


Finnish Soviet Republic (independent one) is less ASB than many other events of 1918 in former Russian Empire. Winner of Finnish Civil War was decided by a foreign invasion IOTL, Make German support for Whites a little weaker (keep Germany a bit more involved in some other corner of Mitteleuropa), Russian (or, rather, Bolshevik) support for Reds a little stronger (I dunno, opening Imperial armouries to them seems like a good start) and bingo.

The Civil War was decided at Tampere before the German landfall had any real importance. The German-trained Finnish Jäger troops were a big help to the Whites, but even without them the White side would have clearly had the upper hand. It would just have been a longer and seriously more bitter struggle, a one leading to much more bloodshed and a permanent divide in the Finnish society.

Assuming there is no German intervention but the Jägers are still allowed to join the White Army, the Bolshevik support should have been more than a little stronger. Given their own position was not exactly strong at that time, either, it would be tough to say where they would have found the reserves for that. The Reds received the big bulk of their weapons from disintegrating Imperial units in Finland and by train from the Bolsheviks in Petrograd: I guess Lenin was already doing what he considered possible to help the Finnish Reds with weapons, seeing he was even sending airplanes to his friend Eino Rahja. It was not really the weapons that most hampered the Red strenght, it was the absolute lack of training, discipline and even passable military leadership that lost them the war.
 
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I doubt that new SSRs would be admitted, if doing so would make Russians a minority of the USSR population. So Finland and Mongolia are plausible SSRs, but probably not Poland.
This is plausible concern but pre-WWII it isn't obvious that anything short of admitting Germany is going to seriously threaten Russian ethnic domination (especially taking into account that effect of Slavs ganging up together among "other" groups). Remember that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians were harmed by WWII so disproportionally, it created, very first time in country's history, possibility of them becoming minority among "others" (but still relatively biggest group by far). So USSR can easily admit anything East of Elbe until 1945.

"Finnish Soviet Republic" is kind of a misnomer here. The Red Government itself called the country the Republic of Finland and I think internationally it would have been called a (Socialist) Workers' Republic.
I'm fine with Red-dominated "Finnish Republic".

Anyway, what the international community or even parts of the Finnish (Red) government think is not important, it matters what Lenin and buddies think in Petrograd. Lenin himself approved Finnish independence on the assumption that the country will later join the USSR.
It kinda proves my suspicion that he wouldn't necessarily think of Finland as being different from Ukraine and Transcaucasia.
Assuming there is no German intervention but the Jägers are still allowed to join the White Army, the Bolshevik support should have been more than a little stronger.
I agree with everything you said, but we're still not in ASB territory.
 
It kinda proves my suspicion that he wouldn't necessarily think of Finland as being different from Ukraine and Transcaucasia.

So, would you say losing the Ukraine and Transcaucasia, too, before 1922 would not have an effect on Soviet policies or the formation of the Soviet elite in the 20s?

Lenin had a long relationship with the Finnish Social Democrats, and stayed in Finland several times. In 1905, the Bolsheviks had their meeting in Tampere, the one in which Lenin and Stalin met for the first time. Finland was the first Socialist country and indeed, the first foreign state, the Soviet state recognized as independent. I do not doutbt it at all, that the country was to Lenin a laboratory for the success of international revolution, close in geographical terms but different in terms of culture, social life and political participation of the people. Had a successful Finnish revolution been seen by him as a starting point for a string of similar successes in the Baltic states, it would have had a meaningful impact on the policies he and other leading Bolsheviks would advocate during the next decade.

What I mean here is the possibility success of a Socialist revolution in a much greater part of the former Russian Empire than happened IOTL: you really do not see any meaningful butterflies in that?

CanadianGoose said:
I agree with everything you said, but we're still not in ASB territory.

Granted, not ASB. Tough nevertheless.
 

Ice-Titan

Banned
I am working on something like this.

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