How big can Israel get?

With a POD after the declaration of independence of the state of Israel, how big can the state become? This does not include occupied territories like OTL West Bank, only land that has been directly integrated into Israel.
 
Depends on how sympathetic Israel is to the rest of the international community and how useful it is to both sides of the Cold War. One possibility - someone less of an anti-Semitic asshole than Stalin takes over the USSR postwar (possibly if Trotsky ran the show from the start) and decided Israel was useful, and if America still wanted its grubby mitts on the small nation, there is a strong possibility of two Israels.

And if one or both Israels snaps up some territory from an invading Arab nation, the US and USSR might decide, fuck it, they can have it. Israel incorporates that territory as part of its mainland, and after the Cold War, it unifies with a shit-ton more land.
 
Israel is not going to annex land that would threaten its Jewish majority, so to pull this off, you'd need to increase Israel's Jewish population. A majority of Jews outside of Israel live in the United States. So you need to trigger large-scale flight of American Jews to Israel.

Here's the most plausible scenario I can come up with:

Stalin either dies earlier (as @Colonel Zoidberg suggested) or manages to put his own anti-Semitism aside in favor of practicality. He loosens restrictions on Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union to Israel, and begins an aggressive campaign to bring Israel into the Soviet orbit. In particular, he deliberately ships Russian Jewish veterans to Israel along with heavy weapons. The new infusion of arms and veterans enables Israel to force the Arab Legion out of East Jerusalem, albeit with heavy casualties. Among the dead is an Irgun commander named Menachem Begin. A famous photo shows Jewish troops holding the flags of Israel and the Soviet Union atop the Temple Mount.

Due to butterflies, Truman narrowly loses the 1948 election to Dewey. Dewey begins a gradual shift of American politics towards a pro-Arab stance. Israel gravitates towards the Soviet Union, and Israeli politics shift to the left. Ben-Gurion himself leads the shift, merging Mapai with Mapam. The Histadrut effectively takes over the Israeli economy.

In the United States, Israel's alignment with the Soviet Union produces an increase in anti-Semitism. American Jews who openly (and especially financially) support Israel are targeted by McCarthy. The FBI targets Jewish organizations for infiltration. Antisemitic rhetoric is openly used. In response, many American Jews choose to make aliyah. Judaism all but disappears from large stretches of America. Only in a few major cities, particularly New York, do substantial Jewish communities remain.

The turning point is the trial of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, which triggers a wave of antisemitic violence (compared by some to the Dreyfus Affair). A Jewish demonstration in New York calling for clemency is suppressed by police, and rioters attack synagogues and other Jewish institutions. After being released from prison, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Chabad-Lubavitch Rebbe, declares his intent to make aliyah, and calls for other Jews - particularly members of the Chabad movement - to do the same. The flow of American Jews to Israel becomes a flood. By 1957, the Commune of Israel holds a majority of the world's Jewish population.

In 1967, the Six-Day-War occurs. Israel defeats three Arab armies after Israeli MiGs launch a preemptive strike, wiping out most of the Egyptian and Syrian air forces on the ground. Israel occupies, and subsequently annexes, the West Bank and the Sinai. Some leaders oppose the annexation, hoping to exchange the land for peace, but the need to relieve the housing pressure on Israeli cities overrides these concerns. Eventually, Israel does hand back the Suez Canal to Egypt.

Israel faces an economic downturn in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Under international pressure, Israel initiates some market reforms. In 1997, President Clinton becomes the first American President to visit Israel, where he is greeted by American-born Israeli Premier Yosef Lieberman. Lieberman visits the US in 1998, and in 2000 the US hosts a summit at Camp David between Lieberman and several Arab leaders, largely ending the disputes between Israel and most of the Arab world.
 
I'm reminded of a cartoon in National Lampoon at the time of the 1973 war. It shows a column of Israeli tanks on the move and a voice coming down from above shouting: "Medamnit! I said Promised Land, not Promised Continent!"
 
As @Meshakhad said, an expanded Israel, in whatever form it takes, will need a fuckton of immigrants to allow for a permanent Jewish majority, at least at first (I also like OTL Joe Lieberman being PM.) However, to piggyback off that point, in order to make it workable long term, whether as an America-friendly state, a Soviet satellite, or the divided example I provided, a baby boom is a necessity. If Israel after 1948 draws in immigrants who have big families for at least a generation, whether by American osmosis, Soviet demand, or both, the population will be big enough to hold a significant amount of territory.


Israel started off with a population around 1 million (it’s just shy of 9 million today.) If enough immigrants can be brought to Israel to double that to 2 million and a major baby boom takes off in the 50s (basically Israelis have a shitload of babies and defend the everloving shit out of the homeland as they did OTL,) both the population AND the Israeli don’t-fuck-with-us ethos will skyrocket. Areas such as the West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights, and even the Suez area would be among the first to join Israel, and Jews would pour in as settlers. You would have a majorly pissed off Arab world but few people who give a steaming shit since Israel would be far more useful.

Eventually the Arab states would be forced to recognize Israel, and arrangements would have to be made for Palestinians. Israel would be a highly urbanized nation of possibly even 30-40 million by now with projections of nine figures within a couple of generations.
 
It depends how early your PoD is.

1561: Joseph Nasi successfully resettles the Jews of the Papal States in Safed and Tiberias. The mid-16th century Jewish refugees from Poland who settled in Palestine but ultimately opted to leave because it wasn't a very nice place to live stay TTL. They are bolstered further by Sephardim who went to the Balkans and North Africa OTL who instead go to Palestine here. Ultimately the Jews become the majority in Golan-Galilee-Acre region by the 17th century.

1903: The proposal to establish a Jewish State in El Arish is approved by Joesph Chamberlain. Along with the 120,000 Jews who settled in Palestine OTL before WWI, a similar number settle in the North of Sinai (and others in Said, Alexandria, Suez, and Cairo for business purposes and whatnot). With the Jewish Legion being larger, the British succeed in the Sinai-Levantine campaign more quickly and don't make as generous promises to the Hashemites. Instead they promise Palestine, including TransJordan, to the nascent Jewish Dominion.

1937: Israel is established via the Peel Proposal. Millions of additional Jews survive, and Israeli joins WW2 on the side of the allies in exchange for promises of territory (the Jerusalem mandate which included Bethlehem and Ramallah, the Golan, Southern Lebanon including Tyre and Sidon,

The Israeli Government very quickly takes in the Jews of Germany, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Romania - all of which were viciously antisemitic regimes that would likely assist the Jewish state in taking the Jews off their hands. The 1938 Evian Conference becomes a matter of assisting in the resettlement of these Jews into Israel, with international Jewish organizations, philanthropists, and various governments contributing to the effort. Israel proceeds to join the war in 1941 on the condition that the Jerusalem mandate (including Ramallah and Bethelehem) be cede by Britain to Israel and that Israel be allowed to expand at the expense of Vichy Syria and Lebanon.

1948: In 1947-1948, had the war lasted just a couple days more, Israel would have likely captured Gaza, Rafah, and el-Arish.

1948+: A less antisemitic Soviet Government post-1948 could allow more Jews to go to Israel, resulting in the country being more willing to take control of more territory directly.

1951+: If King Abdullah I of Jordan hadn't been shot, Jordan may have reached peace with Israel and Israel may have recognized the West Bank as part of Jordan. It was rumored that this was in the works (and Lebanon would proceed to be the second state to recognize Israel).

Post-1967, an Israel that never reaches a peace agreement with its neighbors could perhaps set up autonomous client regimes in the WB, Gaza, and Sinai that while technically independent of Israel are all under Israeli economic and military suzerainty.
 
Eventually the Arab states would be forced to recognize Israel, and arrangements would have to be made for Palestinians. Israel would be a highly urbanized nation of possibly even 30-40 million by now with projections of nine figures within a couple of generations.

The problem with a 30-40 million population is that there isn't nearly enough water to go around, even with desalination.
 
Unless Israel can experience/enact a major population boon then it's going to be limited in how much territory it can control. Even today, it only has a population of almost 9 million. It would need nearly double that population to exert effective control over more areas.
 
The problem with a 30-40 million population is that there isn't nearly enough water to go around, even with desalination.

Not in that space anyway. And that may be a problem for future OTL Israel anyway, since their popularity is projected to go that high by about 2060 by some estimates.
 
Israel is not going to annex land that would threaten its Jewish majority, so to pull this off, you'd need to increase Israel's Jewish population.
As @Meshakhad said, an expanded Israel, in whatever form it takes, will need a fuckton of immigrants to allow for a permanent Jewish majority, at least at first (I also like OTL Joe Lieberman being PM.) However, to piggyback off that point, in order to make it workable long term, whether as an America-friendly state, a Soviet satellite, or the divided example I provided, a baby boom is a necessity. If Israel after 1948 draws in immigrants who have big families for at least a generation, whether by American osmosis, Soviet demand, or both, the population will be big enough to hold a significant amount of territory.

You all seem to be forgetting the other option which Israel has used historically, which is to simply reduce the Arab population of annexed lands.
 
You all seem to be forgetting the other option which Israel has used historically, which is to simply reduce the Arab population of annexed lands.

Like 4.5 million Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank, million arabs in Israel proper, and million Arabs in Sinai?

It's one thing for the Israeli government to not let people who fled and their descendants return. It's another to actively drive people out.

Clearly the endgame is from the Nile to the Eurphrates

Yes, but it has to be the other way around. The Euphrates as the western boundary and the nile as the eastern boundary.


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I can't see an Israel any larger than Palestine, Transjordan, southern Lebanon, Sinai, and perhaps parts of northwestern Saudi Arabia.
 
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Realistically the limits are the River Jordan and the West coast of the Sinai peninsular. Maybe Lebanon too.
 
Due to butterflies, Truman narrowly loses the 1948 election to Dewey. Dewey begins a gradual shift of American politics towards a pro-Arab stance

While the mini-TL you posted is interesting I don't see Dewey being the one to hurt relations with Israel. He was a good friend of Ben-Gurion, and in fact had the 1948 GOP platform call for recognition of Israel and attacked Truman for vacillating. More likely, Truman decides for one reason or another not to recognize Israel. He still wins, though it is a lot closer. Or, even more likely, Lehi's plot to kill Truman in 1947 works and the historically pro-Arab Secretary of State George Marshall becomes president. With a large increase in anti-semitism in the US, along with Marshall's historic anti-Zionism, let's say things don't go well relations between Israel and the United States...
 
Like 4.5 million Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank, million arabs in Israel proper, and million Arabs in Sinai?

It's one thing for the Israeli government to not let people who fled and their descendants return. It's another to actively drive people out.

Well, they did in 1948.
Those people who fled, largely did so because they were actively being driven out. It is true however that Israel did not generally recur to mass expulsions subsequently.
EDIT: the civilian Sunni population of the Golan Heights was also evicted in and immediately after 1967, though I am not sure how much of it was a premeditated concerted effort by Israel to force them out (as opposed to an effort to keep them out in the aftermath, which is slightly different; it still violates international law ofc).
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
Divided Israel scenario is pretty much ASB. If Israel sides with the Soviets, America sides with the Arabs and vice versa. An Israeli civil war that actually split the nation would immediately result in all the Arab nations pouncing on Israel anyways.
 
Realistically the limits are the River Jordan and the West coast of the Sinai peninsular. Maybe Lebanon too.

If Israel has any kind of expansion into Lebanon, it's going to remain south of the Litani River.

Basically, the biggest - I think, anyways - that Israel could realistically get is Israel, the West Bank/Judea & Samaria*, Gaza, the Golan Heights, Sinai, and Lebanon south of the Litani. Anything more than that is too far.

*Or whatever other names that region has, I tend to default to those two.
 
Some points here.

1) If you can avoid the holocaust Jews might number today about 40 million and probably have a much bigger influence in Europe as well as a much larger population in Israel. A POD based on this is probably your best bet.

2) Towards the end of the war of Independence, Israel armed forces could have taken more, in particular, the West Bank and the Sinai. If they had they would probably keep them. The Sinai is you are looking at land with a small native population is probably Israel best hope of land expansion if you are looking at size. One problem here is except for the West Bank, Israel has had little interest in territorial expansion, the Sinai, for example, they gave up three times, land in Lebanon twice and Gaza they gave up too. The Golan, Israel offered several times to give up too although each time they redecided.

3) Israel population now is 8.4 million and is forecasted to hit about 18 million in 40 years. This may sound impressive but the areas around Israel are similarly growing too.
 
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