How balkanized can Russia get?

Exactly what it says on the tin. How balkanized can the area of the 1914 Romanov state get? The more plausible balkanizations would be accepted easier, but we all know how implausible history itself is, so......:p
 
In my opinion this is how much territory Russia can lose before you get into area's where Russians make up the majority.

balkanize me - Russia.png
 
What's with Kuban?

It's certainly majority-Russian by 1914, and even the Cossacks, if counted as a separate ethnicity, are a minority in that territory.

On the other hand, you seem to have left Kalmykia out. Definitely no Russian majority there.

Other possible changes could be Volga nationalities...not that their states could survive for very long, of course, being surrounded by Russian majorities and all.
 
Got something against a good Don state? :mad:

Well, it's a state that will have its problems (well-off Cossack landowners outnumbered by poor Russian settlers).

I wonder if it includes Kalmykia (traditionally under the same military administration as the Don host).

I'm not saying it's not a possible state, I'm just correcting Saladan's map and concept a little. This:

this is how much territory Russia can lose before you get into area's where Russians make up the majority

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EDIT: And not to mention the Kazakh border. Can't believe I missed that first time around :D
 
We're before 1900 here. At the very least, we should look at a surviving Republic of Novgorod. We can also probably keep the Ukraine out of Russian hands somehow. The Baltic states go to Sweden or Poland-Lithuania. We might be able to shoehorn a couple city-states in (e.g. Pskov). The middly bits remain dominated by steppe horsepeople. Southern far east Siberia probably gets taken by the Japanese, with the further northern parts taken by a colonial empire - probably Britain or the Dutch.
 
Once Russia as an entity exists, its more difficult because there will always be centrifugal forces pulling carved-off snippets back in. After the destruction of Kazan, there is basically nothing stopping expansion to Kamchatka, especially since China's power projection capability is weak.

Looking at it in later eras, whilst states can be re-made on the peripherary they are always going to need strong friends, or will eventually end up reconquered.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
EDIT: And not to mention the Kazakh border. Can't believe I missed that first time around :D
Taking into account that he's obviously working with 1900 settlement, I can't believe you missed Krimea and whole Novorossia thing :)

We're before 1900 here. At the very least, we should look at a surviving Republic of Novgorod. We can also probably keep the Ukraine out of Russian hands somehow. The Baltic states go to Sweden or Poland-Lithuania.
I'd say that Ukraine not being controlled by Russia inevitably ends up being controlled by PLC (Poland-Lithuania), so fates of those two are linked together. Novgorod's survival is possible but not easy, as any half-serious Central Russian political entity (be it called Russia, Muskovy, Vladimir Principality or Kingdom of Apes) would have stranglehold on Novgorod's grain supply. Balts? Who care about them. IOTL they were semi-autonomous crusader states ruled by their German elites under Russian overlordship. Kind of a bribe to Baltic German nobility for being loyal to Czar's throne (a rare example of an agreement both sides stuck to for 200 years).

We might be able to shoehorn a couple city-states in (e.g. Pskov).
Unlikely. IOTL Pskov had been Novgorodian client state most of the time before being absorbed by Muskovy. They're either under Novgorod, or under this Central Russian entity.

The middly bits remain dominated by steppe horsepeople.
Again, unlikely after, let's say, 1600. As soon as you get numerous musketeer armies raised by farming-based principalities, nomads are doomed. IOTL PLC kept Tatars in check with little more than private armies of borderland nobles.

Southern far east Siberia probably gets taken by the Japanese
Unlikely again. Chinese, possibly. Korean, not impossibly. Japanese? ASB.

with the further northern parts taken by a colonial empire - probably Britain or the Dutch.
Nope, whoever holds Barenz Sea SE shore and Novaya Zemlya, most likely controls Northern Siberia. And Russians (Vladimirians, then Novgorodians) controlled it since 13th century.
 
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