BobTheBarbarian
Banned
Thank you for the detailed responses!
Do you happen to have the operational maps? If only for the purposes of updating the wiki article.
Another question: in the 1940 war plan, the First Area Army (第一方面軍 ) was responsible for all Japanese army-level commands on the Ussuri Front. However, it was not activated in real life until 1942. As far as I can tell, under the Kantokuen plan there would not have been any Area Armies in Manchuria and all individual Armies would have been directly controlled by Kantogun HQ in Changchun. Is this correct, or was the First Area Army also planned for 1941? If so, would Yamashita have been appointed its commander like in 1942? (At the time he was the commander of the Kwantung Defense Army/関東防衛軍 ).
EDIT: additionally, does Senshi Sosho say anything about whether or not air "Battle Plan A" would have been implemented? According to JSOM vol I, Japan had two air battle plans for war with the Soviet Union, A and B. Prior to the Pacific War it was envisioned that Battle Plan A would entail shifting 3 air divisions, 1,200 to 1,800 aircraft, to bolster the 600 to 900 already in Manchuria (which would cooperate with about 350 Navy planes mentioned in WP 1940). After Pearl Harbor, the Kwantung Army was forced to plan around the basis of using only those aircraft it possessed "on-hand." Was there ever a formal decision on how many planes were to be gathered for Kantokuen?
It was an oral interview between Imaoka and Alvin D. Coox.
21 days to win on the Ussuri Front strikes me as wildly optimistic. In the 1940 war plan a time frame of two months was discussed, while even during the initial phases of planning for Kantokuen the General Staff still spoke in terms of 6 to 8 weeks under the "crash schedule." Maybe if the Soviet armies were reduced to only a skeleton force.
But, it does not seem realistic.
Looking at the "simultaneous offensive" plan, the Amur direction (6 divisions) looks a bit strong while the Ussuri direction weak. I suppose that a general reserve was necessary, but it is my suspicion that basically all of it would have been used on the Primorye front. This disposition is also different from what I previously believed: in the 1940 war plan, which Kantokuen was based on, there were 4 divisions assigned to the northern front and 20 on the Ussuri front.
You're welcome. I can send some more information on the Soviet order of battle at the end of 1941 and what they possibly had available to fight the Japanese with. As for their operational plan, the STAVKA directives of 16 March 1942 (No. 170149 and No. 170150) are fairly instructive:
Do you happen to have the operational maps? If only for the purposes of updating the wiki article.
Another question: in the 1940 war plan, the First Area Army (第一方面軍 ) was responsible for all Japanese army-level commands on the Ussuri Front. However, it was not activated in real life until 1942. As far as I can tell, under the Kantokuen plan there would not have been any Area Armies in Manchuria and all individual Armies would have been directly controlled by Kantogun HQ in Changchun. Is this correct, or was the First Area Army also planned for 1941? If so, would Yamashita have been appointed its commander like in 1942? (At the time he was the commander of the Kwantung Defense Army/関東防衛軍 ).
EDIT: additionally, does Senshi Sosho say anything about whether or not air "Battle Plan A" would have been implemented? According to JSOM vol I, Japan had two air battle plans for war with the Soviet Union, A and B. Prior to the Pacific War it was envisioned that Battle Plan A would entail shifting 3 air divisions, 1,200 to 1,800 aircraft, to bolster the 600 to 900 already in Manchuria (which would cooperate with about 350 Navy planes mentioned in WP 1940). After Pearl Harbor, the Kwantung Army was forced to plan around the basis of using only those aircraft it possessed "on-hand." Was there ever a formal decision on how many planes were to be gathered for Kantokuen?
It was an oral interview between Imaoka and Alvin D. Coox.
21 days to win on the Ussuri Front strikes me as wildly optimistic. In the 1940 war plan a time frame of two months was discussed, while even during the initial phases of planning for Kantokuen the General Staff still spoke in terms of 6 to 8 weeks under the "crash schedule." Maybe if the Soviet armies were reduced to only a skeleton force.
But, it does not seem realistic.
As I mentioned above, there's a reconstructed 'hypothetical' order of battle for Kantokuen in the Senshi Sosho vol.20 pp.365-366. It's hypothetical because aside from the original 16 divisions that were mobilized in real history, all other transferred divisions on this list werefrompicked based on the authors'estimatesspeculation, (edit - tried to word better)
It has four variations, the first two are the 20 divisions plan and the 25 divisions plan, both prepared by the Kantogun on July 8. The third one is the modified 25 divisions plan as prepared by the Kantogun on July 29, the fourth and last one is the 24 divisions plan drawn after the meetings between Tojo and Tanaka on July 31 established the 24 division limitation.
For limited but more precise information, its p.369 notes that five divisions in China were earmarked for the transfers, on the presumption that the decision to initiate the war would be made no latter than August 10.
The 21st Division from Baoding, scheduled to start moving in mid August, estimated to arrive North Manchuria by early September
The 33rd Division with its main strength assembled in Taiyuan, same as above, with its detached infantry regiment in Jiujiang estimated to arrive North Manchuria by September 15
The 4th Division from Hankou, scheduled to start moving once the war decision has been made, estimated to arrive North Manchuria by September 15
The 6th Division from Wuhan, scheduled to start moving once the war decision has been made, estimated to arrive North Manchuria by late September
The 41st Division, scheduled to be assembled to Linfen, estimated to arrive North Manchuria by late September
While discussing the contingency plan of January 14 1942, the Senshi Sosho vol.35 p.366, the authors name 16th Division, 51st Division, 52nd Division, and 71st Division as the potential reinforcements to the Kantogun.
Looking at the "simultaneous offensive" plan, the Amur direction (6 divisions) looks a bit strong while the Ussuri direction weak. I suppose that a general reserve was necessary, but it is my suspicion that basically all of it would have been used on the Primorye front. This disposition is also different from what I previously believed: in the 1940 war plan, which Kantokuen was based on, there were 4 divisions assigned to the northern front and 20 on the Ussuri front.
You're welcome. I can send some more information on the Soviet order of battle at the end of 1941 and what they possibly had available to fight the Japanese with. As for their operational plan, the STAVKA directives of 16 March 1942 (No. 170149 and No. 170150) are fairly instructive:
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