How badly can Japan do after 1941?

Assume US intelligence forsees something like Pearl Harbor and attack on the Phillipines.

Assuma competent camander in the Phillipines makes preparations starting from say August 41.

Could Japanese militarist suffer sufficiently serious reverses that they are forced out of power

This assumes the US throws as many 6s as Imperial Japan Managed late 41 early 42.
 

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Could Japanese militarist suffer sufficiently serious reverses that they are forced out of power
Sure...the question is in what time frame? They were thrown out of power in 1945 IOTL. If they lose the war quicker they get tossed out of power more quickly. 1944 is probably the earliest I could see them losing with barely plausible bad luck defeats. As it was Midway was one of the worst imaginable results for that campaign, several more defeats of that magnitude early on would ironically see them acting far more rationally. The question is what would the US accept in terms of negotiated peace earlier in the war?
 
The Japanese OTL leadership seemed out of touch in July 45 as Battleships are raking their coasts, their navy completely sunk, and the allies with complete air supremacy. At that point they wanted no occupation, no war crimes trials, etc... Hard to imagine them accepting anything the Allies would be willing to offer in 1942.

Would the 1942 Allies let the Japanese have pre-war boundaries: No
1921 boundaries: No
1907 boundaries: No
1900 boundaries: Maybe
1894 boundaries: Yes, along with demilitarization, along with a change of government, reparations, maybe avoiding occupation, but no way the Japanese leadership accept this.

Now could epic Japanese defeats force the Japanese Military leadership out of power earlier, seems unlikely, In OTL June 1944 you had epic Japanese defeats, a change of leadership, but no one could seem to do what was necessary and make peace at any cost.
 

ReenX

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Regardless of performance in general war, without Nukes Japan can't be forced to the negotiating table under Allied conditions. And allies would hardly accept Japanese proposals that they were sending. Invasion of mainland Japan would be terribly expensive in terms of lives lost. Not Eastern Front expensive, but to Americans who finished both world wars with few casualties the numbers would be astronomical
 
Assume US intelligence forsees something like Pearl Harbor and attack on the Phillipines.

Assuma competent camander in the Phillipines makes preparations starting from say August 41.

Could Japanese militarist suffer sufficiently serious reverses that they are forced out of power

This assumes the US throws as many 6s as Imperial Japan Managed late 41 early 42.

Why just the U.S?

Considering the army is half the military, bungling land operations in China (Overreaching with offensives into the interior only to get cut off by Nationalist forces, for example) would be a huge embarrassment and avoid the naturally insulting effect the breath of the Pacific has on the speed at both sides can effectively hit one another due to logistics and aircraft range.
 
Why just the U.S?

Considering the army is half the military, bungling land operations in China (Overreaching with offensives into the interior only to get cut off by Nationalist forces, for example) would be a huge embarrassment and avoid the naturally insulting effect the breath of the Pacific has on the speed at both sides can effectively hit one another due to logistics and aircraft range.
Indeed. If the UK is sensible and says bugger Thai neutrality then the Japanese assault on Malaya might be defeated before it starts. That would make a change
 
What happens if Japan seeks a cease fire and negotiations in Nov 1942. This is a couple months before Roosevelt & Churchill published the unconditional surrender policy.
 
What happens if Japan seeks a cease fire and negotiations in Nov 1942. This is a couple months before Roosevelt & Churchill published the unconditional surrender policy.

Best possible terms: They have to get out of China (Likely including Manchuria) and any other territory they managed to conquer. Indochina is held in trust by the Allies until it can be returned to the French. Japan is forced to pay reparations for loses of civilian life (At least in the colonies, maybe not in China) and repute any treaty obligations to the Germans and Italians. Maybe they get to keep control of Formosa and Korea and don't have to hand over part of their navy (Though the U.S and Britain likely confiscate at least some merchant/transport shipping to help with the build-up in Europe) if the Allies are being particularly generous.
 
What happens if Japan seeks a cease fire and negotiations in Nov 1942. This is a couple months before Roosevelt & Churchill published the unconditional surrender policy.
Allied negotiator: 'Hello. Obviously you'll have to get out of China; maybe Manchuria too. And how would you feel about sending a fleet to the Mediterranean to assist with the campaigns in North Africa and Italy?...'
(Although as a bare minimum would probably also require the heads on a silver platter first of those who could reasonably be held responsible for the 'Day of Infamy' to satisfy the Americans; the whole 'surprise attack without declaration of war' business really annoyed the Americans, as far as I understand it.)
 
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EZ. Have them get greedy and attack the USSR simultaneously, have Singapore fail, and have New Guinea be an even bigger disaster. That, plus with total defeat at Pearl harbor and being repulsed at the Philippines could mean by the time the USSR is ready to seriously counter-attack (1943) the war is over.
 
Basically a immediate withdrawal from all territories occupied from 1940. Cease fire in China and negotiations for a peace treaty there. A few key restrictions on the Navy & Army.

Technically France is neutral at this point so, return of that is strictly business between Petain & the Japanese, however Op Torch is right around the corner and Allied politics may create questions about the Free French ect...

This would be about as face saving as practical. Japan is effectively bankrupt at this point so significant reparations are out of the question. In fact it is in the Allies best interest to revive Japans economy with orders for war material.

The most immediate effect is the USSR can cease building far Eastern forces & divert the material west. The Allies can do the same. The savings in cargo shipping may be large enough to allow resumption of Op BOLERO while still executing campaigns in the Med.
 
If the Allies execute Op TORCH about the same time as OTL then yes, French Indo China may fall into the hands of the Free French quickly. That can build a FF Army faster than OTL.

Maybe we will see a Philippines division in Europe 1944-45
 
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