At the beginning of the twentieth century, a major European war appeared inevitable and maybe even desirable for many figures in Europe. Several standoffs (First and Second Moroccan Crisis, Bosnian Crisis) seemed like they may have resulted in a war between major European powers before diplomacy resulted in deescalation. If Franz Ferdinand never gets assassinated, how long could "WWI" be postponed?
Alternatively, how long until a major European war no longer seems "inevitable" from the perspective of people watching foreign policy at the time? If war continues to be averted post-1914, what year do leaders in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Russia figure that a war between major European powers is unlikely to happen?
Alternatively, how long until a major European war no longer seems "inevitable" from the perspective of people watching foreign policy at the time? If war continues to be averted post-1914, what year do leaders in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Russia figure that a war between major European powers is unlikely to happen?