Only Russia had been backing Serbia for a while, plus you have the whole broader context of AH & Russia both looking to extend control in the area in general, to suggest this Russian support was some kind of surprise is to ignore all this. Leaving aside they had made their position clear before hand as wellAn alliance is obviously more important than a guarantee. If Germany does not uphold an alliance then it loses its ally. If it breaks the guarantee then it can always be restored afterwards
As for the guarantee, it's untested. It's probably, but I am not sure, also an untested idea - great powers going to war to back up a guarantee treaty.
and Germany out numbered France by itself, and so on.Because Germany was surrounded bybthe Franco-Russian Alliance.
Better to be shackled to a corpse than to be all alone
But again why should the entente nations ignore their treaties while the CP honour theirs. As I said this point only get brought up for why the entente member honoured their treaties but never the CP. It basically amounts to 'why din't the entente just let the CP do what they want.
You can't have this both ways
If many Russians in position of power agreed it to the extent they gave the orders than it's Russian foreign policy, but as above the wider context of the area means no this wasn't a surprise where AH could legitimately say we had no idea Russia would do that. And in fact we know that because otherwise why would they make sure they had German backing. why were they talking to the Russians.That's pretty much it. Many Russians in positions of Power thought it was a grand idea, thus the Full Mobilization orders to back Serbia 100%
This idea that Hartwig the Russian ambassador to Serbia somehow took the entire area by a surprise Russian mobilisation is a joke. Hartwig very much made his pan-slvaic credentials and opposition to AH clear
(what doesn't help here is the man died suddenly on the 10th July!)