How accurate is the description of the Naval War in the Atlantic in Tom Clancy's "Red Storm Rising"?

8 years is more then enough time for such changes to take place. The military build-up under Stalin from 1948 until his death which brought the Soviet military from 3 million men up to 5.76 million in a mere 6 years. Following Stalin's death, this was then followed by a drawdown to 3.6 million over the next 7 years. Build-ups and drawdowns in the 60s, 70s, and 80s followed similar patterns. So as we can see, a doubling of the threat in the timeframe stated is a perfectly plausible proposition.

As for your incidents, in addition to none of these being conventional strength estimates, actual intelligence estimates did not substantiate these political fears. The bomber and missile gaps were disproven by American military intelligence who did the investigative work into them and found them bunk. The Window of Vulnerability never had much serious truck among military intelligence and wasn't really ever much of even a public issue. It sounds like whatever this "Soviet Threat" publication was, it wasn't actually using NATO intelligence assessments in it's publication.

They were quite real. Being stationed in East Germany, they were well within range for NATO to physically observe and even occasionally managed to inspect. The claim the Soviet Union did not prepare the logistical apparatus to support it's plans for an offensive into Western Europe is, as always, presented with a total and comprehensive lack of any support. Do people think the 2-3,000 support vehicles the Soviets provisioned each division with were there too look pretty? Do they really believe the massive dumps of equipment, ammo, and fuel scattered across Eastern Europe were just figments of imagination not only to the NATO intelligence officers who photographed them, but also the Soviet and other Warsaw Pact personnel who manned them? Why do they think the GSFG was provided with more logistical support assets then any other Soviet military formation of that size?

As for the troop training issues and the maintenance problems that stemmed from that: yeah, as I noted those were real, seriously crippling problems by the end of the 80s. The key word there is "by the end of the 80s". You go back earlier in the decade, the rot is less severe and the problem much more manageable for the Soviet troop control apparatus, hence the troops are generally adequately trained and the equipment functional.

The T-72M was inferior to domestic models and used by the Czechoslovak and Polish armies, as well as Middle Eastern ones (alongside local domestic copies which were event worse). There is some confusion here, because the East Germans did use a T-72 which though they designated it the T-72M, but they were actually modified T-72A variants.




The only tests which found Soviet armor to be invulnerable to all extant NATO AT rounds under all conditions were those conducted against the Kontakt-5 ERA. Most other armors were found to be able to be penetrated by at least some NATO AT rounds under some conditions. And the same to be true the other way around, for the most part.


Neither were surprises. NATO generally found the MiG-29 and Su-27 to be capable, yes. But they generally expected them to be capable. It's also rather amusing the inconsistency in your argument how you earlier derided that Soviet equipment didn't work, but then immediately about face and say a bunch of mainline Soviet equipment "worked as advertised".
Some Soviet equipment worked, and it worked far better than NATO and the US had claimed it would work. There is nothing wrong with the idea that the Soviet's could have surprised NATO with some equipment that was better than NATO claimed it was. During the 1980s, I constantly read American publications which claimed that the Warsaw Pact stuff was rubbish. It was all rubbish. Imagine the surprise that they actually had some stuff that worked it worked damned well.

As for the matter of training and discipline, Survov wrote a book IIRC, "Inside the Soviet Army". Most of it was rubbish but the bits that did ring true was about the conditions that their soldiers lived under while they were conscripted. They were horrible. As for the training, that left a lot to be desired. This was all in the early 1980s, not the late 1980s. Survov was writing to please his audience, not to reveal the truth of what it was like to be a Soviet Soldier/Sailor/Airman. So he over played his hand for the most part.

The reality is that NATO and the US in particular made use of their own propaganda to try and paint the fUSSR in the worst light possible. The fUSSR was on the way out and it showed increasingly as the 1980s progressed. That didn't suit Washington at all.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Obsessed Nuker according to your latest figure of NATO strength the combined armies of the Netherlands, Belgium the BAOR and the US forces in the FRG was 290k. That after you tried to tell that the BW was only 340 k military personnel.

Ok in your world the WP forces did have superior numbers. In the real world they did not.
 
As for the matter of training and discipline, Survov wrote a book IIRC, "Inside the Soviet Army". Most of it was rubbish but the bits that did ring true was about the conditions that their soldiers lived under while they were conscripted. They were horrible. As for the training, that left a lot to be desired. This was all in the early 1980s, not the late 1980s. Survov was writing to please his audience, not to reveal the truth of what it was like to be a Soviet Soldier/Sailor/Airman. So he over played his hand for the most part.

You are now, by your own admission, using sources that you yourself admit are unreliable rubbish to support your argument. Maybe you should stop now before digging yourself deeper.

Obsessed Nuker according to your latest figure of NATO strength the combined armies of the Netherlands, Belgium the BAOR and the US forces in the FRG was 290k. That after you tried to tell that the BW was only 340 k military personnel.

Ok in your world the WP forces did have superior numbers. In the real world they did not.
The sources numbers use official NATO and WarPac data. That you don’t like them does not make them any less real.
 

ferdi254

Banned
You link to an ISS source, an insitute mostly financed by weapon manufacturers in the west.
But even taking these numbers it is 0.8 NATO and 1.0 WP. Hardly a strategic superiority as you claimed.
 
Started studying NATO/WARPACK conflict in the late 1970s and always remembered Bundeswehr was huge with 500 independent companies as reinforcements reserves called up upon mobilization. Then learned about territorial brigades with previous generation weapons [makes sense ] . Kind of liked USA National Guard units?

Anyway were these included in the 340,000 figure or the 1/2 million figure?
The army was 340.000. 1/2 milliion includes personal for air forcce and navy.
 
You link to an ISS source, an insitute mostly financed by weapon manufacturers in the west.
Again: it's own sources are official Warsaw Pact publications on it's own force strength on the one hand and NATO publications on it's strength on the other. Your own supporting sources thus far amount too... really nothing. You've provided nothing that lays out the relative balance of power in numerical terms.
But even taking these numbers it is 0.8 NATO and 1.0 WP. Hardly a strategic superiority as you claimed.
Now your just being obtuse. A Warsaw Pact strategic numerical superiority of 200,000 is a strategic numerical superiority and is exactly as I claimed. It's not a significant strategic numerical superiority by any stretch of the imagination, but then that was a claim I never advanced, and indeed I indicated the opposite when I stated that the numerical superiority of the Warsaw Pact "was not as large as commonly supposed".
 
You are now, by your own admission, using sources that you yourself admit are unreliable rubbish to support your argument. Maybe you should stop now before digging yourself deeper.
I am not "digging myself deeper". I am showing that am widely read on the matter. If anybody is digging himself deeper, it is yourself.

I noted the problems with relying on Suvarov as well as used him to make a point. If you don't like that, tough. I am relying on open sources which were available at the time. You seem to be relying on sources which weren't.
 
Again: it's own sources are official Warsaw Pact publications on it's own force strength on the one hand and NATO publications on it's strength on the other. Your own supporting sources thus far amount too... really nothing. You've provided nothing that lays out the relative balance of power in numerical terms.

Now your just being obtuse. A Warsaw Pact strategic numerical superiority of 200,000 is a strategic numerical superiority and is exactly as I claimed. It's not a significant strategic numerical superiority by any stretch of the imagination, but then that was a claim I never advanced, and indeed I indicated the opposite when I stated that the numerical superiority of the Warsaw Pact "was not as large as commonly supposed".
I think we can also assume, that NATO-numbers included a far higher percentage of support-troops, simply because NATO couldn´t treated their soldiers like soviet conscripts.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Obsessed the point is here that the Polish army and the soviet forces in Poland are in while your claim was that the forces in Germany had a strategic superiority.

Even if I ignore the fact that hardly any Polish government would have left all its army move into Germany and the USSR would not have left Poland without occupying forces in the 80s and ignore the point that it would have been hard to move those forces through the abysmal road system of the GDR..

if one goes from 200 km on both sides to counting all forces up to 600 km from the border on WP side and stays with 200 km on NATO side then the credibility of one’s analysis suffers.
Sort of like the famous missile gap USAF „discovered“ in the 60s.
 
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NATO WARPACT conflict was always a debacle of bean counting Vs the history of war. Bean counters demanded that numbers rule, while history buffs , exclaimed maybe not. Neither side was speaking to each other so the neutral had little hope. I remember when commercial board games became available to us warmongers , it seemed like the light at the end of the tunnel, but unless you had plenty of time on your hand and could face same level partner in most games , lessons were few and far between.

Histories of past wars were not much more help since the always reflected the bias of the authors and could never parallel the 'data' embedded in the average board game. As usual you had to buy more games and more books to further the debate. We were mostly stuck with trying to adapt WW-II histories & games to hypothetical modern wars. Hardly a easy endeavour.

Follow on gaming literature embraced the horror through the 1980s and we stumbled on ART OF WAR VS SCIENCE OF WAR....or more accurately gaming Vs statistics. However the computer culture of the 1980s short circuited this effort crippling the importance of "art of war" & creating the "science of war junkie". Mean while the myth of Wehrmacht superiority was punctured in new histories , but then many war survivors had been saying that all along.

Through computer games of the 90s , it seemed bean counting ' science of war junkies' had won..... and I still cringed reading about the tens of thousands of 'commie "Monkey models" vs the hundreds of 'gold plated' "democratic western weapons. When archives started to open in the 1990s this greatly increased the accuracy of WW-II data and debates. Periodically real world events like the GULF WAR would breath more life into the dialectic , at least no one bitches any more about the 'M-1 fuel hog' and 'monkey models'. War always seems to boil down to battalions of human fighting to 'win' and not die. ....and my 'old man' and my Russian friend always exclaimed.... statistics can NEVER QUANTIFY QUALITY, and until they can, the battle continues.
 
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NATO WARPACT conflict was always a debacle of bean counting Vs the history of war. Bean counters demanded that numbers rule, while history buffs , exclaimed maybe not. Neither side was speaking to each other so the neutral had little hope. I remember when commercial board games became available to us warmongers , it seemed like the light at the end of the tunnel, but unless you had plenty of time on your hand and could face same level partner in most games , lessons were few and far between.

Histories of past wars were not much more help since the always reflected the bias of the authors and could never parallel the 'data' embedded in the average board game. As usual you had to buy more games and more books to further the debate. We were mostly stuck with trying to adapt WW-II histories & games to hypothetical modern wars. Hardly a easy endeavour.

Follow on gaming literature embraced the horror through the 1980s and we stumbled on ART OF WAR VS SCIENCE OF WAR....or more accurately gaming Vs statistics. However the computer culture of the 1980s short circuited this effort crippling the importance of "art of war" & creating the "science of war junkie". Mean while the myth of Wehrmacht superiority was punctured in new histories , but then many war survivors had been saying that all along.

Through computer games of the 90s , it seemed bean counting ' science of war junkies' had won..... and I still cringed reading about the tens of thousands of 'commie "Monkey models" vs the hundreds of 'gold plated' "democratic western weapons. When archives started to open in the 1990s this greatly increased the accuracy of WW-II data and debates. Periodically real world events like the GULF WAR would breath more life into the dialectic , at least no one bitches any more about the 'M-1 fuel hog' and 'monkey models'. War always seems to boil down to battalions of human fighting to 'win' and not die. ....and my 'old man' and my Russian friend always exclaimed.... statistics can NEVER QUANTIFY QUALITY, and until they can, the battle continues.
Might it not be more an acceptance that the M1 "Fuel Hog" has just been accepted as "the way things are"? Personally, I wonder about how much fuel the vehicle uses, simply because of the lack of an alternative motor to drive the radios and electronics instead of the gas turbine. Gas turbines are not terribly economical and that is something that always strikes me about accounts from the Gulf War written by British participants - of tanks passing the M1s when they needed to stop and refuel compared to the more economical diesel vehicles. As for the "monkey model" vehicles it is something I often remark on, the Iraqis were given very much lower quanlity vehicles than the Warsaw Pact forces. They often fired plain steel penetraters and had worse armour. Which tended to obscure what the Warsaw Pact had. The result is that the Warsaw Pact has often been downgraded, which they didn't deserve.

I know there is both a science and an art to war. The best practitioners are the scientists who can work wonders with the numbers they are given. What most science people miss is that there is a morale factor which plays a big part in any battle. It could be as little as "when did the troops last have a hot meal?" to we have superior tactics to them.
 
The point of the 'Fuel hog' was that's all the writers saw, just like the "monkey models". They clearly didn't know much and you and I as 20 something probably knew more. How much fuel used is meaningless unless you know how much fuel was in the combat trains at Battalion/ regimental level or higher . I recall a LEO-1 tanker grinning while he recounted they always raced past the British Chieftain tanks on exercise ...but which would you rather be fighting fight in? Besides when these tankers could burst fire 3 rounds in 10 seconds or less , that's tactically decisive.

In any event it was the tankers/soldiers fighting skills / moral and leadership that mattered in real combat , not how many mm of armor they had or could penetrate. The RED FLAG exercise showed Veteran A4 pilot could defeat F-15 in air battle . A lesson they had already paid for in blood during Vietnam. Opforces showed critical aspects of recon / deployment / maneuver & train /train/train.
 
I would like a vehicle that had a longer range than the M1 Abrams. It was and remains quite a fuel hog with barely any range. That means that we need a much larger logistics train to back it. It would need a much larger number of POL operators, specialist mechs and so and so on, to carry it, It is limited where it can be used as well, with the need for the infrastructure to support it. It would need larger aircraft/ships to deploy it, it would need stronger bridges and stronger railways to carry it. The Chieftain had it's own raft of problems but logistically it was a lighter load to carry than the M1 Abrams.
 
I would like a vehicle that had a longer range than the M1 Abrams. It was and remains quite a fuel hog with barely any range. That means that we need a much larger logistics train to back it. It would need a much larger number of POL operators, specialist mechs and so and so on, to carry it, It is limited where it can be used as well, with the need for the infrastructure to support it. It would need larger aircraft/ships to deploy it, it would need stronger bridges and stronger railways to carry it. The Chieftain had it's own raft of problems but logistically it was a lighter load to carry than the M1 Abrams.
It wouldn't have been that bad if the US had approved use of the Leo 2's powerpack instead of reneging on its agreement with germany to standardize on the best components. The German powerpack actually outperformed the AGT 1500+X1100 (the X1100 transmission was especially bad) in reliability, fuel economy but also even torque characteristics.

That or modernizing to LV-100-6 in the 2000s but Rumsfeld cuts yet again.
 
The point is the M-1 worked more than well enough in battle , that internet posters around the world believed they were invincible ...until the occupation of Iraq dragged out for years and then decade etc etc. These institutional views were only 'corrected' by reality checks of real world events. I'll never forget Herzog [???] arguing on CNN in 1990 that the Allied Blitzkrieg through Kuwait and Iraq, would be fine....but what would happen afterwards????? Of course no one cared , the short term politics of the moment dictated the discussion.

...same thing happened to Soviet/WARPACT apparent "invincibility" through out the same time line. ...and guess what? They had to constantly down grade the perception of their military power after the fact [realism is never a bad thing] .
 
Obsessed the point is here that the Polish army and the soviet forces in Poland are in while your claim was that the forces in Germany had a strategic superiority.

And? The figures also include NATO forces in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxemburg, so if we want to limit ourselves to Germany then the NATO number is going to drop significantly as well. And it represents far and beyond anything you've provided.

Even if I ignore the fact that hardly any Polish government would have left all its army move into Germany and the USSR would not have left Poland without occupying forces in the 80s and ignore the point that it would have been hard to move those forces through the abysmal road system of the GDR..
Claims made without much substance. We know that both the Soviet Northern Group of Forces, as well as the Polish Army, were allocated considerable roles in Warsaw Pact plans as part of their, which indicates on a distinct willingness to employing them in Germany. Additionally, Polish and Soviet paramilitary security services would be the ones who police the populace, not armed forces, and any Soviet NGF forces that head west would not be the end of Soviet forces moving through Poland, given that the plans called for a constant stream of units transferring through from the Western Soviet Military Districts. How well these plans might have worked is certainly debatable, particularly in 1987 given that the Poles and all the rest of the WarPac has become very rebellious by then and the Soviet mobilization system, like the rest of the Soviet Union, was in a state of collapse but the intent to use NGF and Polish forces in an assault into Western Europe is not.

Likewise, the claim that the GDRs road system was “abysmal” is quite laughable. While modernization certainly lagged behind that of West Germany, the roads were reasonably maintained and thick enough on the ground to be more then enough to meet Soviet supply and force movement needs. It’s like your earlier claim that there are only 5 bridges over the Elbe between Dresden and Geesthact or that the Fulda Gap has only two roads for the Soviets to use. In reality, the town of Magdeburg alone has six road and rail bridges, with most other towns along the Elbe in that region tend to have 1-2. And this is discounting the ferry crossings. And the Fulda Gaps road network is... well, take a look:
Rdce9f8c3ad00d94c44be2b208067f930


You see all these tiny lines running through the region like spiderwebs? The ones that aren’t the grid-square boundaries? Those are roads. Many of them paved even.

if one goes from 200 km on both sides to counting all forces up to 600 km from the border on WP side and stays with 200 km on NATO side then the credibility of one’s analysis suffers.

I'd say the failure of basic geography causes one credibility to suffer vastly more, seeing as the source does count forces up to 600 kilometers on the NATO with the inclusion of the Benelux countries. In any case, you haven't provided the slightest source for your supposed NATO numerical superiority.

Sort of like the famous missile gap USAF „discovered“ in the 60s.
Ironic claim to make, given that it was the USAF intelligence services that disproved the missile gap.
I am not "digging myself deeper". I am showing that am widely read on the matter. If anybody is digging himself deeper, it is yourself.

I noted the problems with relying on Suvarov as well as used him to make a point. If you don't like that, tough. I am relying on open sources which were available at the time. You seem to be relying on sources which weren't.
Yes, your digging yourself deeper, given that your reading all appears to have been hacks and the open-source information poorly informed. Reading actual histories, like General Odom's Collapse of the Red Army or Miller's The Cold War: A Military History gives a much more nuanced view, with the benefit of hindsight and sources that were not open at the time. In the former case, Odom notes that Soviet training in the early-80s was... not great, but okay. "Adequate for the Red Army's needs" is probably the best way to put it. The low motivation and brutalization of Soviet conscripts was offset by the continuing functioning of the troop control mechanisms, which ensured the minimum of training standards were met. But when the control mechanisms collapsed later in the decade, so too did the training standards.

I know there is both a science and an art to war. The best practitioners are the scientists who can work wonders with the numbers they are given.
The best practitioners are artists who successfully incorporate scientific principles into their warfare. Because that's what war is: an art which has science as a essential feature (though, hardly the only one). There is no divorce between the art of war and the science of war, rather the latter is a necessary component of the former.
 
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ferdi254

Banned
Obsessed which parts of Belgium and the Netherlands are 600 km from the innergerman border?

Your original claim was that the Soviet forces in Germany had a strategic superiority. To make your point you invented 170 out of 495 BW forces being civilian. After that was shown to be wrong you put in forces in Poland.

And for the road system, have you ever been to those areas and drove a car? If not, just looking at a map a) does not help and b) your map is showing the roads on the western side of the border so hardly disproves my claim that the road system in the GDR was abysmal.

Resting my case here.

PS. In one thing I must correct myself it is Magdeburg to Geesthacht, not Dresden.
 
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