Say Vladislaus II of Bohemia and Hungary is even less fortunate with his offspring than IOTL-his daughter Anna dies aged five and Louis is not only mentally retarded but also of poor physical health and dies in summer 1513. Due to grief king dies the same year, in September.
What does it mean? After death of Anna Janos Zápolya can't hope to marry her, thus it is likely he would marry Margaret Hohenzollern (born 1483), niece of Vladislaus proposed to him IOTL in 1509. So Zápolya would get family connection to Jagiellons, strenghtened later by marriage of his sister Barbara to Sigismund of Poland. At the time of ATL Vladislaus death Sigismund was still anti-Habsburg due to Emperor's support to Teutonic Order. Habsburg-Muscovite alliance from 1514 and loss of Smolensk made him more defetist, as result he decided to make agreement with Habsburgs. But in 1513 he will fully support Zapolya's party against Habsburgs.
So Vladislaus II is dead and leaves no surviving kids, Janos Zápolya who is wealthliest magnate in Hungary, is married to king's niece and has support of middle nobility claims the throne. Emperor Maximilian claims thrones of Hungary and Bohemia for himself (his grandsons are only 13 and 10) but War of the League of Cambrai is not over, so his attention would be distracted, Sigismund support his brother-in-law' struggle for Hungarian crown and propably claims Czech throne for himself. Maximilian would look for alliances with Teutonic Knights and Muscovy in hurry to distract Poles.
Who is going to win Vladislaus' thrones? Is Zápolya able to estabilish his family as new royal house of Hungary in such circumstances?
 
In 1513 Maximilian is busy with War of the League of Cambrai, there was no disaster of Mohacs (which has also bad sides for Zapolya: pro-Habsburg nobles who were killed there are still alive), revolt of Dózsa not happened yet (crushing it strenghtened Zapolya's position). Zapolya also have Sigismund's support, but it would not last long, Muscovite invasion of Lithuania in 1514 would force Sigismunt to use all his available forces in the East. But still, Zapolya's chances are much, much higher than IOTL IMHO.
 
Zapolya would succeed IMHO. Habsburgs without cathastrophic rule of Louis II have less time to build their position. But Sigismund-rathet not, he'd be lucky if he gained Silesia (even this is doubtful-he wasted several occassions IOTL), defending Lithuania is first priority. Czech throne is important for Maximilian due to electoral vote. He'd try to make peace with Louis XII earlier to be able to focus on Bohemia. Muscovite invasion would make Sigismund willing to negotiate peace with the emperor.
 
What about letting Matyas Corvinus' granddaughter live a bit longer, and Zapolya's brother who was supposed to marry her die sooner. She marries Janos instead?
 
What about letting Matyas Corvinus' granddaughter live a bit longer, and Zapolya's brother who was supposed to marry her die sooner. She marries Janos instead?
Likely. But it would be better for him if he marry relative of actually rulling monarch.

János Zápolya (1487-1542), King of Hungary 1513-1542, married in 1510 to Margaret Hohenzollern (1483-1540).
Children:
1) János II, born 1511, King of Hungary, married to Reneé of France, daughter of Louis XII.
2) Hedvig (1513-1522)
3) István, born 1516.

Zapolya's Hungary is allied with France and Poland. Not only János but also his sister Barbara is more lucky ITTL-she avoided death in childbirth. Maximilian Habsburg get Czech throne and electoral vote for Habsburg dynasty. Sigismund I renounce his claims to Bohemia, in exchange emoeror widthrew his support to Teutonic Order and cancelled his talks with Moscow (I'm still not sure about Silesia's fate). Further Habsburg' claims to Hungary caused shift in Hungarian-Ottoman relations. Instead being shield against Turks Hungarian Kingdom get closer and closer to Istanbul.
 
Further Habsburg' claims to Hungary caused shift in Hungarian-Ottoman relations. Instead being shield against Turks Hungarian Kingdom get closer and closer to Istanbul.

If Hungary doesn't belong to the Habsburgs, why would the Emperor be the enemy of the Ottomans? They don't even share a border. Wouldn't it be more likely the reverse, with an "unofficial" Habsburg-Ottoman alliance (Charles V is revolving in his tomb now) against the Zapolyas?
 
If Hungary doesn't belong to the Habsburgs, why would the Emperor be the enemy of the Ottomans? They don't even share a border. Wouldn't it be more likely the reverse, with an "unofficial" Habsburg-Ottoman alliance (Charles V is revolving in his tomb now) against the Zapolyas?
Habsburgs and Ottomans would still clash in Mediterranean, and alliance with Muslims is bit too much for Holy Roman Emperor.
 
Please note that OTL Zápolya getting the throne (or at least becoming one of the contenders) was possible because he had the only significant army left inside the kingdom after Mohács in 1526. Without the other forces being destroyed his position should be altogether much weaker.
 
Habsburgs and Ottomans would still clash in Mediterranean, and alliance with Muslims is bit too much for Holy Roman Emperor.

Not to mention that even against Vlad or Matyas, neither Friedrich III or Maxie ever even considered it AFAIK. And I think if Max had decided to make an alliance with the Turks, a good time would've been after Matyas' death and him being a contender for the throne. The Habsburgs want to be seen in Hungary as guards against the Turks, not coming in the Turkish army's baggage.
 
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