House of Vytautas

ITTL Vytautas' first wife dies earlier than IOTL, in 1413, just after Union of Horodło. Thus Vytautas could remarry earlier-to Uliana Holshanska, just few years earlier, or another woman from Holshansky family, or from some other boyar family, that is not the most important thing. What really matters is the fact, that Vytautas had son (Alexander) born in 1415.
Vytautas' first wife is less fortunate, but to counterbalance second wife of his cousin (Anna of Cili, Queen of Poland) lives longer and dies in her 50s, outliving Jogaila.
During first years after birth of Alexander, relations between Jogaila and Vytautas could became a bit colder, but i'
in the long run, both of them would benefit from that situation. Only child of Jogaila and Anna of Cili was daughtef Hedwig, born in 1408. Anna of Cili would be in her mid 30s at the time of Alexander's birth and it would soon became obvious that she would not give Jogaila a son. Jogaila has daughter, Vytautas has son, so solution is obvious. Both cousins would want their children to marry each other (earliest time it could (and likely would) happen is 1429, after Alexander's 14th birthday.
Thus Jogaila faces less problems with succession than IOTL. Anna of Cili was granddaughter of Casimir III. Thanks to her Piast blood her daughter Hedwig was proclaimed heiress of the Kingdom in Jedlnia in 1413. Later Jogaila faced serious problems when he tried to undo that and to secure Polish throne for his sons from his fourth, non-dynastic marriage (that means stronger position of Jogaila's descendants on Polish throne and no need for priviledges of Brześć and Jedlnia (including Neminem captivabimus nisi iure victum
).
Also, without succession problems, there would be no affair with Vytautas' coronation plans in late 1420s. IOTL both Jogaila and Vytautas found it to be good idea to strenghten his position on negotiations with Poles about succession of his sons in Poland, although idea backfaired and Jogaila widthrew from supporting it. ITTL such action makes no sense, Jogaila has no sons, his daughter is proclaimed heiress already and her hereditary rights to the Polish throne are recognized, while son of Vytautas, bethroted/married to her, is going to be King of Poland. With less stress and no humiliation of his failed coronation campaign, Vytautas could live a bit longer, say he dies in 1431. What happens then? Jogaila would want 16 years old Alexander to succeede his father as Grand Duke. That would look a bit better for Lithuanians than OTL situation. IOTL it seemed, that after death of Vytautas Jogaila wanted to retake direct control over GDL. Lithuanians wanted pre 1430 sistem to continue (Jogaila as Supreme Duke in Cracow and separate Grand Duke in Vilnius). Son of Vytautas as next Grand Duke would be an option, how acceptable (Alexander is not Jogaila, but he's his obvious successor in Poland, thus problem with lack of separate Grand Duke would be only delayed).
@Augenis
 
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There's an interesting historical tidbit that, at least according to one Ruthenian source from the period, Vytautas did have two sons - the source calls them Ivan and Yuriy, and apparently both of them were taken as hostages by the Teutonic Knights during one of his many ventures to Prussia in the 1380s to seek support for retaking the throne of Lithuania, and when Vytautas betrayed them, the Knights poisoned them both.

No other source mentions the existence of them, so whether they were actually real or just a myth is a debate which apparently nobody in the Lithuanian historical community has bothered delving into.

Okay, now about the scenario itself:

Jogaila has daughter, Vytautas has son, so solution is obvious. Both cousins would want their children to marry each other (earliest time it could (and likely would) happen is 1429, after Alexander's 14th birthday.
I'm not sure on how much the Lithuanians and Poles in the 14th century approved of 2nd cousin marriages (and I doubt I would find any information on such a specific question, not without lack of trying though), but having Alexander marry at 14, and to a 21 year old woman, doesn't strike me as likely. Aside from Jadwiga, which was an extreme case spurred by circumstance, I couldn't find any marriages in Lithuanian royal history where one of the people marrying was this young. Out of the non-Jagiellon Grand Dukes which we can guess the marriage dates for, none married earlier than 20 (Kęstutis wins by marrying Birutė at 50).

I'd imagine that at 1429, Vytautas and Jogaila would start considering marrying their children off to each other, no matter how weird it might seem for the sole children of two cousins to marry each other, but I think you should wait at least until ~1434 before having them step to the altar.

With less stress and no humiliation of his failed coronation campaign, Vytautas could live a bit longer, say he dies in 1431. What happens then? Jogaila would want 16 years old Alexander to succeede his father as Grand Duke. That would look a bit better for Lithuanians than OTL situation. IOTL it seemed, that after death of Vytautas Jogaila wanted to retake direct control over GDL. Lithuanians wanted pre 1430 sistem to continue (Jogaila as Supreme Duke in Cracow and separate Grand Duke in Vilnius). Son of Vytautas as next Grand Duke would be an option, how a ceptable (Alexander is not Jogaila, but he's his obvious successor in Poland, thus problem with lack of separate Grand Duke would be only delayed).
If Alexander is married/betrothed to Hedwig, then the pro-independence Lithuanian nobility would be able to see right through what handing Alexander the crown would entail - since this is exactly the same way in which the Polish-Lithuanian union was formed in the first place, by having the Lithuanian ruler marry the queen of Poland.

Since Vytautas's prestige is still off the charts at this point, even without the attempt at making him a King, if he states that his son is the heir, then he will be the heir - however, expect the Lithuanian nobility to either pressure him to break the betrothal and take a local bride instead, or sign an early version of the Casimir Privileges ("Alexander Privileges" in this case) to make any future Polish-Lithuanian union into a superficial one and strengthen the power of the local nobility in day-to-day management of the country while the Grand Duke is out in Krakow.

Depending on how much this pressure succeeds and what action Poland takes in this, you could still see Švitrigaila raise the banner of rebellion muchlike in OTL, although his strength will be weaker as he doesn't have the air of legitimacy around him anymore.
 
Jadwiga was bethrothed IOTL to Frederick of Brandenburg, who was 5 years younger than her, so Alexander, being 7 years younger, is not that diffefent. Second cousin marriages were not uncommon in Piast Dynasty, also, wifes of Jogaila (Hedwig d'Anjou and Anna of Cili) were second cousins, such his second marriage also required dispensation. Also after death of Anna of Cili IOTL Vytautas suggested, that Jogaila should marry his granddaughter (Maria Vasilievna of Moscow) . Casimir III and Aldona Anna were married when they were both 15 years old, so it would not be shocking.
Švitrigaila would lack support of Vytautas' men, who would certainly support Vytautas' son. Also, without quarells over Vytautas' coronation there is less bad blood between Poles and Lithuanians after Vytautas' death. Thus there is another bad news for Švitrigaila.
 
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Considering the fact, that Vytautas hated Švitrigaila and would certainly see him as danger for his own son would he do something to 'neutralize' that danger?
 
Considering the fact, that Vytautas hated Švitrigaila and would certainly see him as danger for his own son would he do something to 'neutralize' that danger?

All this is interesting but too complicated (I lost track somewhere in the middle). My favorite scenario is Vitautas being succeeded by his grandson, Vasili, who happens to be Great Prince of Moscow: candidate has a serious military backup and Lithuanian-Muscovite union has a lot of geopolitical implications. Of course, by the time of V's death Vasili is young and is going to grow up into an unimpressive ruler (which could be considered an advantage from the Lithuanian perspective) but his son was (in OTL) Ivan III, "The Great", so the neighbors of the union will be facing "interesting times". :)

Happy New Year!
 
Considering the fact, that Vytautas hated Švitrigaila and would certainly see him as danger for his own son would he do something to 'neutralize' that danger?
By the time of his death, Vytautas didn't hate Švitrigaila, he had sworn fealty ten years ago and seemed to be content with owning Bryansk and Chernigov.
 
By the time of his death, Vytautas didn't hate Švitrigaila, he had sworn fealty ten years ago and seemed to be content with owning Bryansk and Chernigov.
So would Švitrigaila be more cautious ITTL? Knowing that Vytautas' men would not support his claim against legitimate son of Grand Duke? Švitrigaila wasn't fool, he rather would not take risk if chances for reward are so small.
 
I wonder about other option-Vytautas' granddaughter as Queen of Poland instead of Vytautas' son as King. IOTL after death of Anna of Cili in 1416 Vytautas suggested marriage between Jogaila and Maria Vasilievna of Moscow, but Jogaila has choosen love match instead, marrying 45 years old, three times widowed Elżbieta Granowska, upsetting everyone. Such marriage would require Maria's conversion to Catholicism (Jogaila's fourth wife converted from Orthodoxy to Catholicism, but she was not daughter of Grand Duke of Moscow, so her conversion was easier to achieve) and would also require Papal dispensation due to consanguinity.
 
There's an interesting historical tidbit that, at least according to one Ruthenian source from the period, Vytautas did have two sons - the source calls them Ivan and Yuriy, and apparently both of them were taken as hostages by the Teutonic Knights during one of his many ventures to Prussia in the 1380s to seek support for retaking the throne of Lithuania, and when Vytautas betrayed them, the Knights poisoned them both.

No other source mentions the existence of them, so whether they were actually real or just a myth is a debate which apparently nobody in the Lithuanian historical community has bothered delving into.

Okay, now about the scenario itself:


I'm not sure on how much the Lithuanians and Poles in the 14th century approved of 2nd cousin marriages (and I doubt I would find any information on such a specific question, not without lack of trying though), but having Alexander marry at 14, and to a 21 year old woman, doesn't strike me as likely. Aside from Jadwiga, which was an extreme case spurred by circumstance, I couldn't find any marriages in Lithuanian royal history where one of the people marrying was this young. Out of the non-Jagiellon Grand Dukes which we can guess the marriage dates for, none married earlier than 20 (Kęstutis wins by marrying Birutė at 50).

I'd imagine that at 1429, Vytautas and Jogaila would start considering marrying their children off to each other, no matter how weird it might seem for the sole children of two cousins to marry each other, but I think you should wait at least until ~1434 before having them step to the altar.


If Alexander is married/betrothed to Hedwig, then the pro-independence Lithuanian nobility would be able to see right through what handing Alexander the crown would entail - since this is exactly the same way in which the Polish-Lithuanian union was formed in the first place, by having the Lithuanian ruler marry the queen of Poland.

Since Vytautas's prestige is still off the charts at this point, even without the attempt at making him a King, if he states that his son is the heir, then he will be the heir - however, expect the Lithuanian nobility to either pressure him to break the betrothal and take a local bride instead, or sign an early version of the Casimir Privileges ("Alexander Privileges" in this case) to make any future Polish-Lithuanian union into a superficial one and strengthen the power of the local nobility in day-to-day management of the country while the Grand Duke is out in Krakow.

Depending on how much this pressure succeeds and what action Poland takes in this, you could still see Švitrigaila raise the banner of rebellion muchlike in OTL, although his strength will be weaker as he doesn't have the air of legitimacy around him anymore.
I was thinking about other solution, best case for Vytautas' offspring. What if Vytautas has two sons (second son, named Vladislaus, is two years younger than Alexander)? Then support for Švitrigaila should be even lower, Lithuanian nobility could hope, that Alexander upon taking Polish throne could leave younger brother in Vilnius as Grand Duke. If Alexander trusts his brother and is good at making compromises, he'll propably do it, and Jogaila-Vytautas co-rule would continue in next generation with Alexander Vytautaitis as Supreme Duke in Cracow and Vladislaus Vytautaitis as Grand Duke in Vilnius. Elites of GDL should like such solution.
 
I was thinking about other solution, best case for Vytautas' offspring. What if Vytautas has two sons (second son, named Vladislaus, is two years younger than Alexander)? Then support for Švitrigaila should be even lower, Lithuanian nobility could hope, that Alexander upon taking Polish throne could leave younger brother in Vilnius as Grand Duke. If Alexander trusts his brother and is good at making compromises, he'll propably do it, and Jogaila-Vytautas co-rule would continue in next generation with Alexander Vytautaitis as Supreme Duke in Cracow and Vladislaus Vytautaitis as Grand Duke in Vilnius. Elites of GDL should like such solution.
They would indeed, since it's pretty much just the Wladyslaw-Casimir division of Poland and Lithuania earlier and under a different dynasty. It would be the optimal solution for the Lithuanian nobility.
 
They would indeed, since it's pretty much just the Wladyslaw-Casimir division of Poland and Lithuania earlier and under a different dynasty. It would be the optimal solution for the Lithuanian nobility.
It would not be exactly like IOTL, it would be slightly better, because IOTL Władysław III wasn't good at negotiations and under advise of Polish Royal Council refused to make his brother Grand Duke (he just wanted him to be his governor), which was seen as slap on the face by Lithuanians and as breaking of conditions of Union Horodło. ITTL Alexander is smarter (and is older and less dependent of Royal Council) and agrees for compromise with Lithuanian nobles, avoiding unnecessary troubles.
 
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