ITTL Vytautas' first wife dies earlier than IOTL, in 1413, just after Union of Horodło. Thus Vytautas could remarry earlier-to Uliana Holshanska, just few years earlier, or another woman from Holshansky family, or from some other boyar family, that is not the most important thing. What really matters is the fact, that Vytautas had son (Alexander) born in 1415.
Vytautas' first wife is less fortunate, but to counterbalance second wife of his cousin (Anna of Cili, Queen of Poland) lives longer and dies in her 50s, outliving Jogaila.
During first years after birth of Alexander, relations between Jogaila and Vytautas could became a bit colder, but i'
in the long run, both of them would benefit from that situation. Only child of Jogaila and Anna of Cili was daughtef Hedwig, born in 1408. Anna of Cili would be in her mid 30s at the time of Alexander's birth and it would soon became obvious that she would not give Jogaila a son. Jogaila has daughter, Vytautas has son, so solution is obvious. Both cousins would want their children to marry each other (earliest time it could (and likely would) happen is 1429, after Alexander's 14th birthday.
Thus Jogaila faces less problems with succession than IOTL. Anna of Cili was granddaughter of Casimir III. Thanks to her Piast blood her daughter Hedwig was proclaimed heiress of the Kingdom in Jedlnia in 1413. Later Jogaila faced serious problems when he tried to undo that and to secure Polish throne for his sons from his fourth, non-dynastic marriage (that means stronger position of Jogaila's descendants on Polish throne and no need for priviledges of Brześć and Jedlnia (including Neminem captivabimus nisi iure victum
).
Also, without succession problems, there would be no affair with Vytautas' coronation plans in late 1420s. IOTL both Jogaila and Vytautas found it to be good idea to strenghten his position on negotiations with Poles about succession of his sons in Poland, although idea backfaired and Jogaila widthrew from supporting it. ITTL such action makes no sense, Jogaila has no sons, his daughter is proclaimed heiress already and her hereditary rights to the Polish throne are recognized, while son of Vytautas, bethroted/married to her, is going to be King of Poland. With less stress and no humiliation of his failed coronation campaign, Vytautas could live a bit longer, say he dies in 1431. What happens then? Jogaila would want 16 years old Alexander to succeede his father as Grand Duke. That would look a bit better for Lithuanians than OTL situation. IOTL it seemed, that after death of Vytautas Jogaila wanted to retake direct control over GDL. Lithuanians wanted pre 1430 sistem to continue (Jogaila as Supreme Duke in Cracow and separate Grand Duke in Vilnius). Son of Vytautas as next Grand Duke would be an option, how acceptable (Alexander is not Jogaila, but he's his obvious successor in Poland, thus problem with lack of separate Grand Duke would be only delayed).
@Augenis
Vytautas' first wife is less fortunate, but to counterbalance second wife of his cousin (Anna of Cili, Queen of Poland) lives longer and dies in her 50s, outliving Jogaila.
During first years after birth of Alexander, relations between Jogaila and Vytautas could became a bit colder, but i'
in the long run, both of them would benefit from that situation. Only child of Jogaila and Anna of Cili was daughtef Hedwig, born in 1408. Anna of Cili would be in her mid 30s at the time of Alexander's birth and it would soon became obvious that she would not give Jogaila a son. Jogaila has daughter, Vytautas has son, so solution is obvious. Both cousins would want their children to marry each other (earliest time it could (and likely would) happen is 1429, after Alexander's 14th birthday.
Thus Jogaila faces less problems with succession than IOTL. Anna of Cili was granddaughter of Casimir III. Thanks to her Piast blood her daughter Hedwig was proclaimed heiress of the Kingdom in Jedlnia in 1413. Later Jogaila faced serious problems when he tried to undo that and to secure Polish throne for his sons from his fourth, non-dynastic marriage (that means stronger position of Jogaila's descendants on Polish throne and no need for priviledges of Brześć and Jedlnia (including Neminem captivabimus nisi iure victum
).
Also, without succession problems, there would be no affair with Vytautas' coronation plans in late 1420s. IOTL both Jogaila and Vytautas found it to be good idea to strenghten his position on negotiations with Poles about succession of his sons in Poland, although idea backfaired and Jogaila widthrew from supporting it. ITTL such action makes no sense, Jogaila has no sons, his daughter is proclaimed heiress already and her hereditary rights to the Polish throne are recognized, while son of Vytautas, bethroted/married to her, is going to be King of Poland. With less stress and no humiliation of his failed coronation campaign, Vytautas could live a bit longer, say he dies in 1431. What happens then? Jogaila would want 16 years old Alexander to succeede his father as Grand Duke. That would look a bit better for Lithuanians than OTL situation. IOTL it seemed, that after death of Vytautas Jogaila wanted to retake direct control over GDL. Lithuanians wanted pre 1430 sistem to continue (Jogaila as Supreme Duke in Cracow and separate Grand Duke in Vilnius). Son of Vytautas as next Grand Duke would be an option, how acceptable (Alexander is not Jogaila, but he's his obvious successor in Poland, thus problem with lack of separate Grand Duke would be only delayed).
@Augenis
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