House Of Trastamara Survives

Well, if they survive it means that there is no Habsburg empire. For this, you need Prince John of Asturias, the only son of Isabelle I of Castile and Ferdinand II of Aragon, survive and have male children with his wife Margaret of Austria.

Charles V is just Charles V of the HRE and does not become king of Spain.

What happens to his brother Ferdinand of Habsburg ? Does he still marry to Ann Jagellon and inherit the kingdoms of Hungary and Bohemia, or does Charles V take the bride for himself ?
This could change many things.
 
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Well, if they survive it means that there is no Habsburg empire. For this, you need Prince John of Asturias, the only son of Isabelle I of Castile and Ferdinand II of Aragon, survive and have male children with his wife Margaret of Austria.

Charles V is just Charles V of the HRE and does not become king of Spain.

What happens to his brother Ferdinand of Habsburg ? Does he still marry to Ann Jagellon and inherit the kingdoms of Hungary and Bohemia, or does Charles V take the bride for himself ?
This could change many things.

Well I would guess that Charles would marry Anne Jagellion in this case. Though whether or not the Habsburgs get Hungary and Bohemia is up for debate. Remember Louis II died in battle so it's not inconceivable that we would survive and father children. Perhaps Charles would be able to do something with Reform in the HRE if he was permanently in the Empire.
 
I can't see how he could deal more successfully with the Reform since he would not have the resources of Spain to deal with german problems.
 
I can't see how he could deal more successfully with the Reform since he would not have the resources of Spain to deal with german problems.

Same here. People are under the mistaken perception that the Hapsburgs could have crushed the Reformation if they focused on it.
 
Crushing the Reformation would be the wrong term, but a house of Habsburg being able to focus on the Empire and thus its problems, would be in a better position to minimize any damage done (as they would see it).

Even IOTL the Habsburgs also agreed that the church might benefit from some reforms and they advocated a Council early on. Now TTL they will prioritize it even more. I can't see them break away from Rome, though they won't be against a 'Gallican' status for the church in the HRE.
 
All you need is for the son of Ferdinand of Aragon and Germaine of Foix born in 1509 to live.

Remember, Charles V has the claim to Aragon through Joan, a daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella. But if Ferdinand has a later-born son the son takes precedence over older female issue. This was one reason why Louis XII, who was smarter than the average bear, offered Germaine to old Ferdinand in the first place, to try to prevent the dreaded Habsburg hereditary triple play from coming to pass.

If the son lives Charles, who still inherits Castille, will of course try to overthrow him because the planned unification of the kingdoms was of such long expectation and was really thought to be a settled matter. Against him you will have France supporting the Trastamara dynasty and Germaine.

And remember, this is not just Aragon but Aragon plus Naples, although France would probably demand Naples and Milan (which is of course fiercely contested in this period) as the price of its involvement in maintaining a separate Aragon.

It would be quite an interesting War of the Aragonese Succession.

Finally, it is interesting to note that after the resolution of things in our timeline I believe Charles V took Germaine (who was much younger than Ferdinand) as his mistress. Which meant he had something special to look forward to when he went to grandma's house. ;)
 
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All you need is for the son of Ferdinand of Aragon and Germaine of Foix born in 1509 to live.

Remember, Charles V has the claim to Aragon through Joan, a daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella. But if Ferdinand has a later-born son the son takes precedence over older female issue. This was one reason why Louis XII, who was smarter than the average bear, offered Germaine to old Ferdinand in the first place, to try to prevent the dreaded Habsburg hereditary triple play from coming to pass.

If the son lives Charles, who still inherits Castille, will of course try to overthrow him because the planned unification of the kingdoms was of such long expectation and was really thought to be a settled matter. Against him you will have France supporting the Trastamara dynasty and Germaine.

And remember, this is not just Aragon but Aragon plus Naples, although France would probably demand Naples and Milan (which is of course fiercely contested in this period) as the price of its involvement in maintaining a separate Aragon.

It would be quite an interesting War of the Aragonese Succession.

Finally, it is interesting to note that after the resolution of things in our timeline I believe Charles V took Germaine (who was much younger than Ferdinand) as his mistress. Which meant he had something special to look forward to when he went to grandma's house. ;)

I myself have thought about that idea but we would prefer the Trastamaras keeping all of Spain.
 
I myself have thought about that idea but we would prefer the Trastamaras keeping all of Spain.

Well you did ask the initial question. Still I too did think about this, albeit from a more Austria-Burgundy(-Netherlands) perspective. It will also make European Great Power politics a bit more multi polar, though I think that the Habsburgs and Trastamaras will remain natural allies in Italy against France. The faith of the duchy of Milan will be interesting ITTL; if the Habsburgs are quite successful it might be given to Ferdinand, though without a direct access to guaranteed Spanish support this will be harder. Instead Milan might stay with the Sforzas as an acceptable compromise. If that happens, and the Habsburgs still are offered to but the duchy of Württemberg after their duke is disposed by the Swabian, then Ferdinand might be made duke of that and maybe he also is granted Further Austria, not Tyrol, which is contiguous with the rest of the Austrian Hereditary Lands.

Regarding the Colonial Race, well with ports like Antwerp and Amsterdam, etc. , the Habsburgs won't react much different than France or England.

Finally I still think that now they can give the Reformation Question the time it deserved and thus be able react on it in a better way sooner. Furthermore if they are soon enough a Council might solve certain matters, though in both cases it might at best limit the Reformation. Since in part that also is a principal question, however in some cases less idealistic motives also enter the scene, like when Protestants dissolved Monasteries. Certain Monasteries certainly might have strayed from their original path and some might have abused their position, but not all and certainly not all monks, even though they were wealthy. The last point also can raise question whether protestant 'princes' were pious, greedy or both.
 
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Regarding the subject of an independent Aragon under a son of Ferran II and Germaine de Foix: I posted a few drafts of a TL on the subject here a while back titled 'Jo, El Rei: The Trastàmara Inheritance'. Sadly, though, I never completed the project and have yet to resume my work. Perhaps someday I'll reboot the project (and no, I promise, this isn't self promotion :eek: ).

From what I have read on the subject and gathered from others with far more expertise on the subject of Iberian history than me (a lot of people, I might add), my own opinion is as follows...

If Ferran's son, the Infant Joan, is born healthy and survives infancy, he'll be a little under seven years old at the time of his accession (assuming that Ferran dies on schedule ITTL). Aragon does not have much of a precedent for an automatic regency by the queen mother and, given the provisions of Ferran's OTL will for the regency following his death, it is most likely that his bastard son, Alonso d'Aragón, will be named Governor and Administrator of the Aragonese Realms. However, considering his advanced age, I wouldn't be surprised if Germaine assumes the regency after his death, since there really aren't many others in a place to do so. In fact, interestingly enough, the queens of Aragon long had a special right to summon the Corts if necessary, and so, she may be the only person legally able manoeuvre herself into such a position in the event of a crisis.

As an aside, the nobility are going to be thrilled at the prospect of the personal union ending, as there were already complaints in Ferran's time of unwanted Castilian interference and influence in Aragonese affairs (such as state offices and military commands being given to Castilian nobles by the Catholic Kings).

It's also important to remember that the Revolt of the Germanies will be very likely to still happen more or less on schedule ITTL, considering the contemporary economic and social tensions in Valencia. However, as the Crown will be resident in Aragon and more focused on affairs there, it may not get as out of hand as it did in OTL. If Germaine is regent at this time, we can probably expect a swift response and a very harsh and bloody end: in OTL Charles appointed her his viceroy in Valencia, and she treated the rebels very severely, personally signing most of the death warrants.

In terms of foreign policy, I disagree with some of what has been said in this thread. The Trastàmaras and the Habsburgs are going to remain strong allies, at least in the first few decades of Joan III's reign, for a number of reasons:

The careful marriage strategies of the Catholic Kings and their strategy of 'encirclement' have bound the houses close together and Charles V is, after all, Joan III's nephew. At this time in Early Modern Europe, family and dynastic ties like this still counted for something.

The Valois were the ancient enemies of the House of Aragon. The Castilians may have courted the French and been their allies at times (usually in the interest of opposing the Aragonese), but Aragon did not (save for some brief exceptions under Ferran II, which were largely for temporary convenience). The nobility (especially in Catalonia) wouldn't stand for any long term 'Franco-Aragonese' arrangement--and that means a lot in Aragon at this time, as the Second Estate had far more control over the Corts then in Castile.

Perhaps most importantly: it's completely contrary to their dynastic interests. The involvement of the Catholic Kings in the Italian Wars had more to do with Aragonese interests than anything else (Ferran largely directed foreign policy from an Aragonese viewpoint during the couple's marriage); and Aragon, from a geopolitical perspective, has one primary goal: maintain possession of Naples, Sicily and Sardinia at all costs*.

The Habsburgs will remain opposed to the French in this scenario, given the dynastic and geopolitical baggage of the Burgundian inheritance and the need to prevent French influence so close to home in Milan by keeping the Sforzas in power (something within the mutual interest of both Charles and Joan).

If Ferran still annexes Navarra in this scenario (also very likely, given his ambitions there, the past history of Trastàmara influence and Germaine's own convenient claims to its Crown), he will do so for Aragon and not Castile. The Albret family are French allies, and keeping Navarra means opposing the French and any attempts they make to reinstall them there.

Also, apart from Italy, there will be a lot of focus on the Western Mediterranean and preserving Aragonese domination there, especially in North Africa. The Barbary Pirates (and thus, by extension, the Ottomans) were a constant headache for Aragon. With Ottoman aggression likely in Hungary and Austria as in OTL, the Habsburgs and Trastàmaras share another mutual interest in opposing their expansion in this respect. In this scenario, François will have just as much reason, if not more, to pursue an Ottoman alliance as he did in OTL, which is very contrary to both Habsburg and Trastàmara interests.

*Interestingly enough, in the marriage treaty between Ferran II and Germaine de Foix, Louis XII renounced all claims to Naples in favour of the couple's future male issue, but reserved the right to continue his claims in the future only in the event that the marriage proved childless.

EDIT: Apologies for the length of this post, but I figured that I could at least contribute some thoughts to the discussion.
 
Regarding the subject of an independent Aragon under a son of Ferran II and Germaine de Foix: I posted a few drafts of a TL on the subject here a while back titled 'Jo, El Rei: The Trastàmara Inheritance'. Sadly, though, I never completed the project and have yet to resume my work. Perhaps someday I'll reboot the project (and no, I promise, this isn't self promotion :eek: ).

From what I have read on the subject and gathered from others with far more expertise on the subject of Iberian history than me (a lot of people, I might add), my own opinion is as follows...

If Ferran's son, the Infant Joan, is born healthy and survives infancy, he'll be a little under seven years old at the time of his accession (assuming that Ferran dies on schedule ITTL). Aragon does not have much of a precedent for an automatic regency by the queen mother and, given the provisions of Ferran's OTL will for the regency following his death, it is most likely that his bastard son, Alonso d'Aragón, will be named Governor and Administrator of the Aragonese Realms. However, considering his advanced age, I wouldn't be surprised if Germaine assumes the regency after his death, since there really aren't many others in a place to do so. In fact, interestingly enough, the queens of Aragon long had a special right to summon the Corts if necessary, and so, she may be the only person legally able manoeuvre herself into such a position in the event of a crisis.

As an aside, the nobility are going to be thrilled at the prospect of the personal union ending, as there were already complaints in Ferran's time of unwanted Castilian interference and influence in Aragonese affairs (such as state offices and military commands being given to Castilian nobles by the Catholic Kings).

It's also important to remember that the Revolt of the Germanies will be very likely to still happen more or less on schedule ITTL, considering the contemporary economic and social tensions in Valencia. However, as the Crown will be resident in Aragon and more focused on affairs there, it may not get as out of hand as it did in OTL. If Germaine is regent at this time, we can probably expect a swift response and a very harsh and bloody end: in OTL Charles appointed her his viceroy in Valencia, and she treated the rebels very severely, personally signing most of the death warrants.

In terms of foreign policy, I disagree with some of what has been said in this thread. The Trastàmaras and the Habsburgs are going to remain strong allies, at least in the first few decades of Joan III's reign, for a number of reasons:

The careful marriage strategies of the Catholic Kings and their strategy of 'encirclement' have bound the houses close together and Charles V is, after all, Joan III's nephew. At this time in Early Modern Europe, family and dynastic ties like this still counted for something.

The Valois were the ancient enemies of the House of Aragon. The Castilians may have courted the French and been their allies at times (usually in the interest of opposing the Aragonese), but Aragon did not (save for some brief exceptions under Ferran II, which were largely for temporary convenience). The nobility (especially in Catalonia) wouldn't stand for any long term 'Franco-Aragonese' arrangement--and that means a lot in Aragon at this time, as the Second Estate had far more control over the Corts then in Castile.

Perhaps most importantly: it's completely contrary to their dynastic interests. The involvement of the Catholic Kings in the Italian Wars had more to do with Aragonese interests than anything else (Ferran largely directed foreign policy from an Aragonese viewpoint during the couple's marriage); and Aragon, from a geopolitical perspective, has one primary goal: maintain possession of Naples, Sicily and Sardinia at all costs*.

The Habsburgs will remain opposed to the French in this scenario, given the dynastic and geopolitical baggage of the Burgundian inheritance and the need to prevent French influence so close to home in Milan by keeping the Sforzas in power (something within the mutual interest of both Charles and Joan).

If Ferran still annexes Navarra in this scenario (also very likely, given his ambitions there, the past history of Trastàmara influence and Germaine's own convenient claims to its Crown), he will do so for Aragon and not Castile. The Albret family are French allies, and keeping Navarra means opposing the French and any attempts they make to reinstall them there.

Also, apart from Italy, there will be a lot of focus on the Western Mediterranean and preserving Aragonese domination there, especially in North Africa. The Barbary Pirates (and thus, by extension, the Ottomans) were a constant headache for Aragon. With Ottoman aggression likely in Hungary and Austria as in OTL, the Habsburgs and Trastàmaras share another mutual interest in opposing their expansion in this respect. In this scenario, François will have just as much reason, if not more, to pursue an Ottoman alliance as he did in OTL, which is very contrary to both Habsburg and Trastàmara interests.

*Interestingly enough, in the marriage treaty between Ferran II and Germaine de Foix, Louis XII renounced all claims to Naples in favour of the couple's future male issue, but reserved the right to continue his claims in the future only in the event that the marriage proved childless.

EDIT: Apologies for the length of this post, but I figured that I could at least contribute some thoughts to the discussion.

Valois and Trastamara became enemies because the Valois are descendants of Yolande of Aragon who claimed the Aragonese crown.
 

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Valois and Trastamara became enemies because the Valois are descendants of Yolande of Aragon who claimed the Aragonese crown.

Yeahhhhh...no.

Yes there will be a rivalry, but not over any succession issue in Aragon, that was long settled. No, the point of contention would be over influence in Italy, what with France and Spain having claims over Naples (that may or may not be settled) and later with the former on Milan.
 
Yeahhhhh...no.

Yes there will be a rivalry, but not over any succession issue in Aragon, that was long settled. No, the point of contention would be over influence in Italy, what with France and Spain having claims over Naples (that may or may not be settled) and later with the former on Milan.

Milan was more an issue between the Habsburgs (in part indirectly as the role they often fulfilled as (formally elected) Holy Roman Emperor) and the French house of Valois. However they also were rivals, since they Habsburgs were the heirs of the house of Valois-Burgundy, which had a rivalry with the main branch and the Orléans branch of Valois.
IOTL the Habsburgs also inherited the Spanish kingdoms (the Crowns of Castille & Aragon).

However as indicated in my earlier post here, where the Valois interests in Italy clashed with those of the houses of Trastámara and Habsburg; in contrast the interests of the houses Trastámara (in Naples) and Habsburg (in Milan) in Italy could exist next to each other and thus they were (in that period and area) natural allies there against the house of Valois.
 
Milan was more an issue between the Habsburgs (in part indirectly as the role they often fulfilled as (formally elected) Holy Roman Emperor) and the French house of Valois. However they also were rivals, since they Habsburgs were the heirs of the house of Valois-Burgundy, which had a rivalry with the main branch and the Orléans branch of Valois.
IOTL the Habsburgs also inherited the Spanish kingdoms (the Crowns of Castille & Aragon).

However as indicated in my earlier post here, where the Valois interests in Italy clashed with those of the houses of Trastámara and Habsburg; in contrast the interests of the houses Trastámara (in Naples) and Habsburg (in Milan) in Italy could exist next to each other and thus they were (in that period and area) natural allies there against the house of Valois.

This is what I was getting at. The mutual interests of the Habsburgs and the Trastàmaras (namely in relation to Italy and their opposition to the French and the Ottomans) would make them natural allies.

In response to what was said earlier: there is no way in hell that the Trastàmaras are just going to deliberately screw themselves over, get into bed with their mortal enemy (France) and hand them Naples, too, in hopes of being 'protected' (against their own best interests) from neighbouring states that have no quarrel with Aragon to begin with.

In any case, after Louis XII, I think that the Valois realised that annexing Naples was not a realistic possibility. They might still have invoked their claims in OTL as a convenient casus belli, but in truth, it was largely Milan that they were after by the time of the War of the League of Cambrai. Especially in this scenario, since the claim has already formally been renounced by treaty in favour of the heirs of Ferran and Germaine.

Of course a Valois Milan is definitely not something that the Trastàmaras or the Habsburgs want either. The Sforzas will be maintained in Lombardy at all costs. And if that doesn't work, the Habsburgs will try to take it back for themselves under the principles of escheat as an imperial fief (as in OTL).
 
I can't see how he could deal more successfully with the Reform since he would not have the resources of Spain to deal with german problems.

That would be the point.....earlier compromises /counter-reformation/ toleration. Don't forget that after the protestants, the Turk is likely to be his primary pre-occupation and of course the Valois. Hence the continuing alliance with Spain is still likely.
 
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