Hope, Change and Spilled Tea

starwarsfan

THE OBSERVER said:
I guess Lugar and Snowe end up staying and McCaskill is defeated. Think seats in states like North Dakota and Montana flip. Update soon?
Click to expand...

Wait and see, update tonight have been very ill have a severe sinus infection, ear infection and the sinus issues are aggravating my asthma issues

I decided I am going to speed things up and the next update will be October 2010 polling

I am starting to plan the alternate gerrymandering of post 2010...
 

starwarsfan

Senate Projection's​

Alaska: Tilt D
Nevada: Likely D
Pennsylvania: Likely D
Colorado: Lean D
Kentucky: Toss Up
Arkansas: Toss Up
Florida: Lean Independent
Missouri: Tilt D
Ohio: Likely D
Illinois: Likely D
Delaware: Likely D
Wisconsin: Likely D
Arizona: Lean D
North Dakota: Tossup
New Hampshire: Lean D
Indiana: Likely D
Louisiana: Tossup
North Carolina: Toss Up
North Dakota: Tilt R
Utah: Safe R
Idaho: Safe R
Kansas: Safe R
Alabama: Safe R
Georgia: Likely R
South Carolina: Likely R
West Virginia: Likely D
Maryland: Safe D
Vermont: Safe D
Connecticut: Likely D

Summer of Two Scandals​
Possibly the biggest scandal in Pennsylvania broke in June of 2010 over the sexual abuse of children by Jerry Sandusky at Penn State. As the news dragged on, allegations that as Attorney General Corbett had failed to recognize the issue at the least and at worst had been complacent in knowing the cover up existed quickly took a massive toll on his polling.

While the Penn State scandal was unexpected the second scandal was much less surprising, Senator David Vitter was caught with prostitutes again in August of 2010 and in an idiotic move similar to Eliot Spitzer attempted to bill the "services" to the government. The Republican Party tried in vain to convince him to resign but it was in vain as Vitter refused to drop out of the race. As the weeks dragged on, the race closed quite quickly and appeared to be heading toward a run off.
 
Last edited:

starwarsfan

Governor Projections​
Competitive Races or Likely Gains by Party:
South Carolina: Toss Up
Texas: Toss Up
Florida: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D
Michigan: Lean D
Nevada: Likely D*
Iowa: Toss Up
Ohio: Tilt D
Georgia: Toss Up
New Mexico: Lean D
California: Likely D
Minnesota: Likely D
Maine: Lean D
Arizona: Toss Up
Tennessee: Likely R
Wyoming: Likely R
Oklahoma: Likely R
Kansas: Toss Up**



*Gibbons is not primaried by Sandoval
**Parkinson Runs for re-election
 

Seleucus

The state of the race you've painted is rosy enough for Democrats to the point of being a bit implausible. 2010 was a bad year for Democrats given the state of the economy and Republican anger. The best you could do would be to channel that into anti-incumbent anger in general, but that's not what you have going on.
 

starwarsfan

spookyscaryskeletons said:
Wait, why is Arkansas a tossup and South Dakota lean R (In the Senate)? Have I missed something here?
Click to expand...
Blance Lincoln lost her primary, North Dakota should be lean R not south dakota, thats just a typo
Halter was a much better candidate than Lincoln

Seleucus said:
The state of the race you've painted is rosy enough for Democrats to the point of being a bit implausible. 2010 was a bad year for Democrats given the state of the economy and Republican anger. The best you could do would be to channel that into anti-incumbent anger in general, but that's not what you have going on.
Click to expand...
This isnt just an alt 2010, also the economy is a good deal better by this point, that will be covered in the next update, currently just writing up the house results different from OTL.




THE OBSERVER said:
Oh boy! I wish this happened IOTL. But as a side effect, I might have not been inspired to get into politics.
Click to expand...

I got inspired by '08 2010 was just depressing
 

starwarsfan

For post 2010 when I cover redistricting, would people like to see the maps or just the changes in party base composition?

I found a lot of good alt maps on Daily Kos
 

starwarsfan

Next update will be the elections

October 2010​
With the election only weeks away, October was bound to be a monumental month for politics and the country. The first bit of news was that unemployment had fallen to 8.7% beating expectations.

However, the bigger news of the month came on October 20th when President Obama addressed the nation in a late night speech about the United States military killing Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan. After the announcement, President Obama's approval hit 65%.....

Next update, Election Night 2010 begins.....
 

Seleucus

starwarsfan said:
Ah you mean the guy with the California, Illinois, Maryland and New York all Dem districts?

You may be on to something.....
Click to expand...

NY was the one that coined the baconmander name (to the point where even a few news articles were reporting on it); I remember being on SSP and seeing it for the first time.

Getting them actually implemented would likely be ASB (with the exception of Maryland; that isn't too hard to get 8-0.) If nothing else, that would probably be the straw that finally convinces the Supreme Court to rule against gerrymandering. Plus they involve playing hardball to an extent that Democrats don't usually do, and are going to seriously upset Democratic incumbent Congressmen.


Also, unless you're seriously changing things, getting redistricting substantially changed in California and NY (the biggest prizes) are essentially unworkable thanks to the citizens commission referendum in California (passed before the PoD in 2008) and Andrew Cuomo in NY (who if elected governor will happily make a deal with the Republicans as he did IOTL, and veto any pro-Democratic redistricting attempts.)
 

starwarsfan

Only showing results different from OTL

Election Night in America​
Results Senate Different from OTL:
Florida: Crist Defeats Rubio Independent Gain
Pennsylvania: Sestak Defeats Corbett Democratic Hold
Illinois: Emmanuel defeats Kirk Democratic Hold
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold Re-Elected Democratic Hold
Indiana: Evan Bayh Re-Elected Democratic Hold
Ohio: Jennifer Brunner Elected Democratic Gain
Kentucky: Daniel Mongiardo Elected Democratic Gain
Louisiana: Charlie Melancon Defeats Senator Vitter Democratic Gain
Alaska: Tony Knowles Elected Democratic Gain
New Hampshire: Paul Hodes Elected Democratic Gain
North Dakota: Earl Pomeroy Elected Democratic Hold
Colorado: Andrew Romanoff Elected Democratic Hold
Arkansas: Bill Halter Elected Democratic Hold
Arizona: Janet Napolitano Elected Democratic Gain
Missouri: Robin Carnahan Elected Democratic Gain
North Carolina: Heath Shuler Defeats Richard Burr Democratic Gain

Total Democrats 66, Independents 3 Total Democratic Caucus 69
Total Republican 31

Governor Results​
Pennsylvania: Dan Onorato Elected
Ohio: Ted Strickland Re-Elected
Wisconsin: Tom Barrett Elected
Texas: Bill White defeats Rick Perry
Michigan: Virg Bernero Elected
Maine: Elliot Cutler Elected
New Mexico: Diane Denish
Iowa: Chet Culver Re-Elected

Arizona: Terry Goddard Defeats Jan Brewer
Nevada: Rory Reid defeats Jim Gibbons
Florida: Kendrick Meek Elected
Georgia: Roy Barnes Elected
South Carolina: Vincent Shaheen Elected

House Races Differing from OTL
Alabama 2nd: Bobby Bright Re-Elected
Arizona 1st: Ann Kirkpatrick Re-Elected
Arizona 3rd: Jon Hulburd defeats Ben Qualye Democratic Gain
Arizona 5th: Harry Mitchell Re-Elected
Arizona 1st: Chad Causey Elected
Arizona 2nd Vic Snyder Re-Elected
California 3rd Ami Bera defeats Dan Lungren (I) Democratic Gain
California 24th: Timothy Allison defeats Elton Gallegly (I) Democratic Gain
California 26th: Russ Warner defeats David Dreir (I) Democratic Gain
California 44th: Bill Hedrick defeats Ken Calvert (I) Democratic Gain
California 45th: Steve Pougnet defeats Mary Bono Mack (I) Democratic Gain
Colorado 3rd: John Salazar Re-Elected
Colorado 4th Betsy Markey Re-Elected
Florida 2nd: Allen Boyd Re-Elected
Florida 8th: Alan Grayson Re-Elected
Florida 12th: Lori Edwards Elected Democratic Gain
Florida 22nd: Ron Klein Re-Elected
Georgia 8th: Jim Marshall Re-Elected
Idaho 1st: Walt Minnick Re-Elected
Illinois 8th: Mellissa Bean Re-Elected
Illinois 14th: Bill Foster Re-Elected
Illinois 17th: Phil Hare Re-Elected
Indiana 8th: Brad Ellsworth Re-Elected
Indiana 9th: Baron Hill Re-Elected
Maryland 1st: Frank Kratovil Re-Elected
Michigan 1st: Gary McDowell Elected
Michigan 7th: Mark Schauer Re-Elected
Minnesota 6th Jim Graves defeats Michelle Bachmann Democratic Gain
Minnesota 8th: Jim Oberstar Re-Elected
Mississippi 4th: Gene Taylor Re-Elected
Missouri 4th: Ike Skelton Re-Elected
Nevada 3rd: Dina Titus Re-Elected
New Hampshire 1st: Carol Shea-Porter Re-Elected
New Hampshire 2nd: Ann McLane Kuster Re-Elected
New Jersey 3rd: John Adler Re-Elected
New York 13th: Michael McMahon Re-Elected
New York 19th: John Hall Re-Elected
New York 20th: Scott Murphy Re-Elected
New York 24th Mike Arcuri Re-Elected
New York 25th Dan Maffei Re-Elected
North Carolina 2nd: Bob Etheridge Re-Elected
Ohio 1st: Steve Driehaus Re-Elected
Ohio 6th: Charlie Wilson Re-Elected
Ohio 15th: Mary Jo Kilroy Re-Elected
Ohio 16th: John Boccieri Re-Elected
Ohio 18th: Zack Space Re-Elected
Pennsyvania 3rd: Kathy Dahlkemper Re-Elected
Pennsylvania 6th: Manan Trivedi Elected Democratic Gain
Pennsylvania 7th: Byran Lentz Elected
Pennsylvania 8th: Patrick Murphy Re-Elected
Pennsylvania 10th: Chris Carney Re-Elected
Pennsylvania 11th: Paul Kanjorski Re-Elected
Pennsylvania 15th: John Callahan defeats Charlie Dent (I)
South Carolina 2nd: Rob Miller defeats Joe Wilson (I)
South Carolina 5th: John Spratt Re-Elected
South Dakota At Large: Stephani Herseth Sandlin Re-Elected
Texas 23rd: Ciro Rodriguez Re-Elected
Texas 27th: Solomon Ortiz Re-Elected
Virginia 2nd: Glenn Nye Re-Elected
Virginia 5th: Tom Perriello Re-Elected
Virginia 9th: Rick Boucher Re-Elected
Washington 3rd: Denny Heck Elected
Washington 8th: Suzan DelBene defeats Dave Reichert
West Virginia: Mike Oliverio Elected
Wisconsin 7th: Juli Lassa Elected
Wisconsin 8th: Steve Kagen Re-Elected

Dem 259, GOP 176
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top