Hope, Change and Spilled Tea

Whanztastic

I expect a lot of conspiracy theories about Kennedy's death and a lot of inappropriate comments trying to tie the use of the machete and the President's false origins.
 

historybuff

Love this so far. I hope the GOP sees sence and stops dabbling in racism and conspiracy theories at some point in this TL.
 

Seleucus

Re Super PACs - the general impression is that they're most effective in House and lower level races; senate and presidency races are already too cash-flooded for it to have much of a difference.

Kendrick Meek dropping out in Florida is going to seriously hurt African-American turnout and stymie Alex Sink in the governor's race (that's the main reason the party kept him in IOTL.)



With a Reid going nuclear PoD, you'd expect to see a vastly energized Democratic base and even more energized Republican base from IOTL, with moderates from both parties being discouraged. So why are Evan Bayh and Heath Shuler, New Democrat and Blue Dog, running for Senate in such an environment? Why did Rand Paul do considerably worse in the KY Senate race?

Also, it's just poor strategy for Tom Corbett to run for Senate when Toomey is doing so as well, and leave Sam Roher the nobody in the driving seat for the governor's primary. At the least, you'd expect someone else more prominent to run for governor in that case. Corbett had his eye on the governor's mansion for a whiles anyways - he formed an exploratory committee in March 2009, which is probably before your PoD. What made him suddenly do a 180?

JD Hayworth winning the primary in AZ is hard to believe, thanks to his associations with Jack Abramoff and his past of appearing in swindling infomercials offering 'free money'. He didn't come anywhere close to winning IOTL.

It's unlikely that Napolitano or Knowles would do well running in 2010 due to their associations with the Obama administration which is unpopular in their home states.
 

starwarsfan

Seleucus said:
Re Super PACs - the general impression is that they're most effective in House and lower level races; senate and presidency races are already too cash-flooded for it to have much of a difference.

Kendrick Meek dropping out in Florida is going to seriously hurt African-American turnout and stymie Alex Sink in the governor's race (that's the main reason the party kept him in IOTL.)



With a Reid going nuclear PoD, you'd expect to see a vastly energized Democratic base and even more energized Republican base from IOTL, with moderates from both parties being discouraged. So why are Evan Bayh and Heath Shuler, New Democrat and Blue Dog, running for Senate in such an environment? Why did Rand Paul do considerably worse in the KY Senate race?

Also, it's just poor strategy for Tom Corbett to run for Senate when Toomey is doing so as well, and leave Sam Roher the nobody in the driving seat for the governor's primary. At the least, you'd expect someone else more prominent to run for governor in that case. Corbett had his eye on the governor's mansion for a whiles anyways - he formed an exploratory committee in March 2009, which is probably before your PoD. What made him suddenly do a 180?

JD Hayworth winning the primary in AZ is hard to believe, thanks to his associations with Jack Abramoff and his past of appearing in swindling infomercials offering 'free money'. He didn't come anywhere close to winning IOTL.

It's unlikely that Napolitano or Knowles would do well running in 2010 due to their associations with the Obama administration which is unpopular in their home states.
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Dems tried to draft Knowles in 2010, Napolitano doesnt get a cabinet position (should have mentioned that earlier thought I did looks like I didnt)

Paul is doing worse (and the primary was closer) due to McConnell being seriously pissed off his guy lost by a narrow margin. KY is also closer due to in my opinion Mongiardo being a better candidate than Conway.

Hayworth is a stretch I admit, have any better Tea Partiers? Really early on it was a somewhat close race according to a few polls. Also there isnt a third candidate in the primary as in otl and the Tea Party supporting super pacs are more aggressive as are the progressive ones (as Bennet and Lincoln lost as well)

I also considered him going third party

I disagree on Meek, I also considered having Meek lose the primary. Meek and Obama endorse Crist and Obama (being more popular at this point) actively campaigns)

Lots of PA gop on the onset viewed Toomey as too extreme remember he tried to primary Specter back in the day and Corbett at the time was seen as a moderate, theres a reason I have him get nominated, eventually PA will get a big update and think of attorney general and scandals in PA of last few years.

Will be an update on NH and OH when in an hour or less hopefully

EDIT: Nevermind been informed I am going to pick up my sister soon, so I should update this tonight around 8-10
 
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starwarsfan

Ohio​
Ohio had two primaries for Senate, one between the Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State and the other side being between John Kasich and a political novelty.

Democratic Primary:
Brunner - 55%
Fischer - 45%

When Samuel Wurzelbacher aka "Joe the Plumber" announced he would challenge John Kasich in the primary, most in the media merely laughed at the very idea of the race. However to many peoples surprise, Tea Party groups and politicians such as Sarah Palin, Americans For Prosperity and Freedom Works endorsed him and he quickly began picking up steam. This primary may have the distinction for the most personally offensive race in the country with the old rumor of Kasich being gay resurfaced and used against him for the religious vote and Kasich attacking Wurzelbacher for his inexperience and being a novelty candidate. Kasich was endorsed by many in the establishment including Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Leader McConnell, the Chamer of Commerce and other more pro business groups. After this primary, the political power of the Alaska governor and former runingmate was starting to concern the establishment GOP and the fear she would be the nominee in 2012 deeply disturbed them as well as governor Rick Perry of Texas another major figure in the Tea Party movement after Mark Sanford's resignation*.

Republican Primary
Samuel Wurzelbacher - 50.1%
Kasich - 49.9%

*Sarah Palin does not resign as governor in 2009

New Hampshire​
In another case of a Tea Party victory endangering seats was New Hampshire where Ovide Lamontagne defeated Kelly Ayotte in the primary. The New Hampshire primary was a similar story to Ohio without the personal attacks. With Palin, Perry and other groups funding a last minute Lamontagne surge, Ayotte was defeated by five points.

Lamontagne - 40%
Ayotte - 35%
Others - 25%
 

THE OBSERVER

Seems very unlikely for Joe the Plumber to run for Governor, shouldn't you make it so that he wins narrowly? Also hoping Rob Portman is the Republican nominee, since he is decent in some ways.
 

starwarsfan

THE OBSERVER said:
Seems very unlikely for Joe the Plumber to run for Governor, shouldn't you make it so that he wins narrowly? Also hoping Rob Portman is the Republican nominee, since he is decent in some ways.
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Its senate?

Portman is running for gov I flipped them

Joe the Plumber did run and unseat a congressman in 2012

and yea Portman isnt bad he will make a good gov for Ohio (He will be important later after the 2012 election)
 

starwarsfan

THE OBSERVER said:
Hate what the Republicans did IOTL, and hate how the Democrats didn't come out forcefully against them.
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Me too especially the second part, the Dems screwed up 2010 so badly I dont know where to begin, this TL is partially based on what 15 year old me wanted to happen and thought dems would do
 

Seleucus

starwarsfan said:
Dems tried to draft Knowles in 2010, Napolitano doesnt get a cabinet position (should have mentioned that earlier thought I did looks like I didnt)
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...So what's the PoD then again?


Paul is doing worse (and the primary was closer) due to McConnell being seriously pissed off his guy lost by a narrow margin. KY is also closer due to in my opinion Mongiardo being a better candidate than Conway.
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Trey Grayson already got a lot of help from McConnell IOTL. And more establishment support would be a mixed bag in a Republican primary in this era.

Hayworth is a stretch I admit, have any better Tea Partiers? Really early on it was a somewhat close race according to a few polls. Also there isnt a third candidate in the primary as in otl and the Tea Party supporting super pacs are more aggressive as are the progressive ones (as Bennet and Lincoln lost as well)
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Hayworth was the main guy really bandied about by the conservatives, but his shortcomings didn't become that apparent until later into the campaign. If you really want McCain to lose, keep him as a moderate/maverick instead of having him going hard right after 2010.




I disagree on Meek, I also considered having Meek lose the primary. Meek and Obama endorse Crist and Obama (being more popular at this point) actively campaigns)
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This would just seem like naked political opportunism behavior on Crist's side (he's still having a bit of a difficult route now and it's 2010.) And I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say you disagree - this was one of the main reasons the party didn't push that hard for Meek to drop out and Sink had some trouble with black voters over this IOTL. (see, e.g. here, here.)


Lots of PA gop on the onset viewed Toomey as too extreme remember he tried to primary Specter back in the day and Corbett at the time was seen as a moderate, theres a reason I have him get nominated, eventually PA will get a big update and think of attorney general and scandals in PA of last few years.
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On the other hand Corbett suffered from things like his handling of the Sandusky case. And there's no way that there wouldn't be any other big names running for the Governor if Corbett decided to go for Senate instead.
 

Nivek

And Joe The pumbler Strike backs, seems tea-teter are going in full attack mode, will fly or crash in 2010? that is why we are tunning this, would be one a hell of experience, dems should take advantage and push more their faction to counter the tea-teter.

So Palin still governess, will run again or will be more passive? she will run in 2012 republican circus?
 

starwarsfan

Seleucus said:
...So what's the PoD then again?



Trey Grayson already got a lot of help from McConnell IOTL. And more establishment support would be a mixed bag in a Republican primary in this era.



Hayworth was the main guy really bandied about by the conservatives, but his shortcomings didn't become that apparent until later into the campaign. If you really want McCain to lose, keep him as a moderate/maverick instead of having him going hard right after 2010.





This would just seem like naked political opportunism behavior on Crist's side (he's still having a bit of a difficult route now and it's 2010.) And I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say you disagree - this was one of the main reasons the party didn't push that hard for Meek to drop out and Sink had some trouble with black voters over this IOTL. (see, e.g. here, here.)



On the other hand Corbett suffered from things like his handling of the Sandusky case. And there's no way that there wouldn't be any other big names running for the Governor if Corbett decided to go for Senate instead.
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Okay whom else would you like to run for gov in 2010 for PA, I picked Roher just because I remember seeing lots of signs for him, I have no qualms changing who won that nomination

The PoD is a mixed bag this basically turned into somewhat of an alt Obama presidency so whom runs for what is thrown into the air, interesting article on Sink and Meek will have to look into that more I am not averse to changing Florida a good bit I havent finalized the plans for that one yet.
 
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