Hi,
I realise Hoover winning the GOP nomination (let alone the election) is ASB with circumstances panning out as OTL until then, but what if Coolidge ran in 1928 instead?
Coolidge beats Smith comfortably in that election, as Hoover did IOTL.
I think the Great Depression and all that came with it still happens here. I think Hoover tried to interveen when he was in office, but not to the same extent as FDR after 1933. Anyway, I think it's fair to asume Coolidge doesn't do anything, believing the market will sort itself out.
Hoover does try to get Coolidge to interveen to a certain extent, something Coolidge refuses to do,. Hoover resigns from cabenet as a result, going on to instigate humanitarian work both in the states and in other countries, as a response to the depression.
Let's asume there are the minimal amount of butterflies as a result and FDR still gets the democratic nomination come 1932 and promises change. It's debatable whether the stress of governing during a depression kills Coolidge earlier than OTL, in which case his VP takes over. Whoever the 1932 republican nominee is, they lose to FDR. Hoover realises this and doesn't allow himself to be nominated.
He also refuses to be drafted for the 1936 election, believing it's probably too soon for a republican president.
Come 1940, he's the republican's nominee.
So who wins in 1940? FDR has implimented the New Deal and though the US isn't out of the woods just yet it's on the way. Roosevelt has also lifted the spirits of the American people, after the Coolidge years. FDR's leadership might also be necessary in the coming year, if the US enters the War In Europe.
Hoover on the other hand, is still popular (having not been president during the depression). In contrast to OTL, he can claim to have acted in response to the depression, both by resigning from Coolidg's cabenet and by carrying out his humanitarian projects. There's also the work he did during the World War.
So who wins that election?