The divergence here is one that has been discussed before. Harding survives, but decides against running for a second term. Herbert Hoover then wins the Republican nomination and the election. He is easily reelected in 1928. In those threads the consensus was that Hoover would not be able to avert the depression, meaning 1932 will still be a strongly anti-incumbent year. Which raises a question, presumably Hoover would be in neither the mood or the position to buck tradition to seek a third term. So who do the Republicans nominate in his place in this altered 1932?