Hooker not outflanked and crushes Lee at Chancellorsville

What if Stonewall Jackson hits entrenched troops head on and Hooker is able to crush both of Lee's armies at Chancellorsville with his army running southwards with 50% more casualties than OTL and Hooker 25% less. To give him a break assume Jackson survives.
 
I think that Lee's star dims greatly. Instead of CDhancellorville a brilliant victory it looks like a stupid loss. People would be asking "What the hell was Lee thinking of when he divided his army in front of a superior enemy?". The difference in looking brilliant and looking stupid is often whether you succeed or not. I think the war will be over much quicker. Hooker may well win it in 1863 or 1864. Lee's army and reputation is badly damaged. If Hooker is able and willing to follow quickly on Lee's heels he might catch him before Lee is able to reach the defenses of Richmond.
 
I think that this POD would require not a fight in the Wilderness of Spotsylvania but Hooker to react to the report of Lee's arrival by really *wanting* to fight Lee. At this phase in the war the Confederate army never really entrenched, and I'm not sure how Lee and Jackson with 60,000 troops are going to handle an open-field fight against a force equal in size to their own at the same time as Sedgwick with another such force is breaking through at Fredericksburg. If Hooker isn't whipped at the start of the fight, Longstreet is the last general of the ANV left.....
 
I think that this POD would require not a fight in the Wilderness of Spotsylvania but Hooker to react to the report of Lee's arrival by really *wanting* to fight Lee. At this phase in the war the Confederate army never really entrenched, and I'm not sure how Lee and Jackson with 60,000 troops are going to handle an open-field fight against a force equal in size to their own at the same time as Sedgwick with another such force is breaking through at Fredericksburg. If Hooker isn't whipped at the start of the fight, Longstreet is the last general of the ANV left.....


I think that would work too but I do think if Jackson runs head on into entrenched troops he will be chewed up. That would hurt Lee pretty badly and Hooker would have no reason to panic like in OTL. After Jackson gets chewed up, not being Little Mac, he counterattacks and Lee gets defeated in detail.
 
According to Battle Cry of Freedom (a rather AH-inclined history of the war), there actually was a golden oppurtunity for Hooker to attack Lee on open ground, but he was paralyzed by indecision and then incapacitated by a stray cannonball.
 
According to Battle Cry of Freedom (a rather AH-inclined history of the war), there actually was a golden oppurtunity for Hooker to attack Lee on open ground, but he was paralyzed by indecision and then incapacitated by a stray cannonball.

Yes, it was certainly winnable if Hooker kept his head.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Hooker could have easily defeated Lee at Chancellorsville. Had he done so, the remnants of the ANV would have obviously retreated southwards, where they would have eventually linked up with Longstreet's divisions then returning from the Suffolk Campaign. Combined, they would amount to maybe 50,000 men, but their morale would have been very low and they would have probably lost much of their artillery.

I can see Lee putting together a solid defensive position a bit north of Richmond, but Hooker's blood would be up, he would have robbed Lee of the mystique of invincibility, and the men of the AotP (probably still around 120,000) would probably be eager to again come to grips with Lee.

In any case, I can see the war ending a year earlier than it did IOTL. I can also see Joseph Hooker becoming the 17th President of the United States.
 
A problem. The two years men are seeing their enlistments run out in a month or so. This could be problematic, and it is likely troops from North Carolina and Beauregard will be rushed up if Lee is in dire trouble.

On artillery, for what its worth, there are at least fifteen light artillery batteries around Richmond at this point. To put that in perspective, four is the standard number per ANV division.
 
Well all that talk of European intervention will no longer be taken seriously at the very least. The Democrats will probably do worse in the 1864 election and the Copperheads will look like fools.
 
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Hooker could have easily defeated Lee at Chancellorsville. Had he done so, the remnants of the ANV would have obviously retreated southwards, where they would have eventually linked up with Longstreet's divisions then returning from the Suffolk Campaign. Combined, they would amount to maybe 50,000 men, but their morale would have been very low and they would have probably lost much of their artillery.

I can see Lee putting together a solid defensive position a bit north of Richmond, but Hooker's blood would be up, he would have robbed Lee of the mystique of invincibility, and the men of the AotP (probably still around 120,000) would probably be eager to again come to grips with Lee.

In any case, I can see the war ending a year earlier than it did IOTL. I can also see Joseph Hooker becoming the 17th President of the United States.


Agreed, Lee would be run off with his tail between his legs and get pounded somewhere around Richmond. Hooker would then be the man to beat in 1868.
 
According to Battle Cry of Freedom (a rather AH-inclined history of the war), there actually was a golden oppurtunity for Hooker to attack Lee on open ground, but he was paralyzed by indecision and then incapacitated by a stray cannonball.

Actually that was on the first day of the battle, he lost his nerve and ordered his men into the Wilderness of Spotsylvania. He fights in the Wilderness, his original plan as it was written fails. Lee has to fight him on open ground.....he might with horrific casualties stop Hooker's wing but then Sedgwick shows up. Longstreet might pull a Powell Hill at Antietam, but that's no guarantee.
 
I think that this POD would require not a fight in the Wilderness of Spotsylvania but Hooker to react to the report of Lee's arrival by really *wanting* to fight Lee.

For Jackson to hit entrenched troops at Chancellorsville, the only requirement is for Howard to actually follow orders and defend his flank like Hooker ordered him. Twice.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
How might this change events in the Western Theater? Considering the grave threat to Richmond, the 20,000 troops sent to Jackson to attempt to relieve Vicksburg would probably be sent to Richmond instead. This wouldn't affect the Vicksburg Campaign much, since Johnston didn't do much with those troops (not that he could have done much, of course). However, an interesting butterfly might be that President Davis would have a little more trust in Johnston than he did IOTL, since the two wouldn't engage in the bitter quarrel over who was responsible for the fall of Vicksburg.
 
How might this change events in the Western Theater? Considering the grave threat to Richmond, the 20,000 troops sent to Jackson to attempt to relieve Vicksburg would probably be sent to Richmond instead. This wouldn't affect the Vicksburg Campaign much, since Johnston didn't do much with those troops (not that he could have done much, of course). However, an interesting butterfly might be that President Davis would have a little more trust in Johnston than he did IOTL, since the two wouldn't engage in the bitter quarrel over who was responsible for the fall of Vicksburg.

It also means Vicksburg falls rather sooner as one reason the garrison held out so long was expectation that Johnston would relieve them. No expectation, faster surrender.
 
Hooker could have easily defeated Lee at Chancellorsville. Had he done so, the remnants of the ANV would have obviously retreated southwards, where they would have eventually linked up with Longstreet's divisions then returning from the Suffolk Campaign. Combined, they would amount to maybe 50,000 men, but their morale would have been very low and they would have probably lost much of their artillery.

I can see Lee putting together a solid defensive position a bit north of Richmond, but Hooker's blood would be up, he would have robbed Lee of the mystique of invincibility, and the men of the AotP (probably still around 120,000) would probably be eager to again come to grips with Lee.

In any case, I can see the war ending a year earlier than it did IOTL. I can also see Joseph Hooker becoming the 17th President of the United States.

Had he done so the remnant of the ANV you speak of would be James Longstreet's Corps. If Lee resorts to his usual pattern and attacks directly the 70,000 men who drove through the Wilderness his 60,000 men might spank them.....for the other part of Hooker's army under Sedgwick to show up and destroy the ANV. The look on Longstreet's face would be epic to see......:D
 
Had he done so the remnant of the ANV you speak of would be James Longstreet's Corps. If Lee resorts to his usual pattern and attacks directly the 70,000 men who drove through the Wilderness his 60,000 men might spank them.....for the other part of Hooker's army under Sedgwick to show up and destroy the ANV. The look on Longstreet's face would be epic to see......:D

Best case scenario, for a given definition of "best":

Jackson: We've routed Hooker! Its all God's work. Now, these subordinates of mine were trying to let God down...

Stuart: General Lee, General Lee!

Lee: Yes General Stuart?

Stuart: More Yankees coming! Under Sedgewick!

Longstreet: Dear God...

Jackson: Don't take His name in vain.

Lee: Don't worry, we'll destroy them like we destroyed Hooker.

Stuart: They have at least thirty thousand, maybe more.

Lee: Excellent. General Longstreet, move your corps to attack ASAP.

Longstreet: :eek:

Lee: Are you arguing with me General Longstreet?

Longstreet: Um...sir...

Jackson: God will take care of them.

Longstreet: I'm surrounded by idiots.

A Sudden Silence Ensues

Longstreet: Did I say that out loud?
 
More accurately:

After two days of Herculean Effort:

Lee: Whew, we made it.

Jackson: God wills it so.

Longstreet (having arrived): Thank God the Yankees aren't smart enough t-

Stuart: General Lee, sir, Yankees over the Rapidan!

Lee: How many?

Stuart: 25,000

Lee and Longstreet mentally: Aw fuckknuckles, we're doomed!

Jackson: God wills it, the enemy is approaching, situation excellent, let's go get 'em!
 
More accurately:

After two days of Herculean Effort:

Lee: Whew, we made it.

Jackson: God wills it so.

Longstreet (having arrived): Thank God the Yankees aren't smart enough t-

Stuart: General Lee, sir, Yankees over the Rapidan!

Lee: How many?

Stuart: 25,000

Lee and Longstreet mentally: Aw fuckknuckles, we're doomed!

Jackson: God wills it, the enemy is approaching, situation excellent, let's go get 'em!

Not much to argue with here.

25,000 fresh Yankees is 20,000 too many for the ANV (including Longstreet's hastily summoned up 15,000 men) after dealing with Hooker's main body. Especially if Jackson and/or (God forbid) Lee want to attack.

Chancellorsville is an excellent demonstration of how the ANV isn't as good as it thinks it is relative to the Army of the Potomac, OTL.
 
Not much to argue with here.

25,000 fresh Yankees is 20,000 too many for the ANV (including Longstreet's hastily summoned up 15,000 men) after dealing with Hooker's main body. Especially if Jackson and/or (God forbid) Lee want to attack.

Chancellorsville is an excellent demonstration of how the ANV isn't as good as it thinks it is relative to the Army of the Potomac, OTL.

And it would also be an excellent example of why Lee *wanted* to fight in the Wilderness. Assuming his 60,000 defeat Hooker's 70,000 in an open-field battle (not improbable) the losses he sustains would be too great and Sedgwick is in Don Carlos Buell's role at Pittsburg Landing with Lee's in Beauregard's. If Hooker's plan works better than IOTL, the ANV is doomed.
 
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