Honorius Dies In 408

So rather than having Arcadius suddenly die in 408, on May 1st 408, the emperor Honorius dies suddenly. Now, Stilicho's position at this point is tenuous but it is by no means untenable. At the same time, the Theodosian line in the west is now dead, and there are plenty of people in both the east and the west that want to see Stilicho gone.

On top of that, there is the little problem of the usurper Constantine III and of the barbarians that crossed the Rhine at the end of 406. By May of 408, Constantine III had sent Scarus scurrying back across the Alps and had set up his own capital in Arles.

Now there are a few ways this could go: there were still Theodosians alive in Spain, which IOTL Constantine had captured and killed that summer. There's also the problem of Alaric who might take advantage of the situation and Stilicho will, in all likelihood, still fall. If Sarus could manage the situation well enough after the fall, he might be able to maneuver himself into getting his own puppet emperor and possibly solicit the support of Alaric. Or the situation may be too untenable and Constantine III is recognized as emperor. How the east reacts to that would be interesting.

Now what does the new emperor do? He has a series of crises on all fronts-the barbarians are on the verge of breaking through his defenses in the Pyrenees, Gerontius will likely still declare himself emperor in Spain, and Alaric is in all likelihood roaming around central Italy. With the backing of the Roman field army in Italy, I can see Constantine himself going to Italy to deal with Alaric, while diverting more forces to his son Constans to take on Gerontius and the barbarians in Spain. How well does he do?
 
Great POD. With Honorius dead Stilicho is unlikely to surrender without a fight like OTL. Though one question: wasn't Sarus personally loyal to Stilicho? If so, and your instinct is right that Stilicho has to go, then Sarus might be able to negotiate an abdication of sorts with Stilicho.

Also, can a deal be made between Gerontius and the new WR Emperor? Clearly it cannot be done with Constantine III.
 
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Great POD. With Honorius dead Stilicho is unlikely to surrender without a fight like OTL. Though one question: wasn't Sarus personally loyal to Stilicho? If so, and your instinct is right that Stilicho has to go, then Sarus might be able to negotiate an abdication of sorts with Stilicho.

Also, can a deal be made between Gerontius and the new WR Emperor? Clearly it cannot be done with Constantine III.

A deal can certainly be done with Constantine III, at least temporarily. A deal was done OTL by Honorius, and assuming those in Italy can hold things together for the rest of 408 (which is unlikely, but still), things are going to fall apart for Constantine relatively quickly, so he would be eager for a deal.

Otherwise, yeah, I don't see Stilicho surrendering without a fight. If anything, this is perhaps his best opportunity to salvage the situation, but he is treading a very thin line. Anti barbarian sentiment is reaching a boiling point in Italy, and while Stilicho doesn't have to worry about his enemies turning Honorius against him, the puppetmaster has lost his puppet.

As for Sarus, yes, he was personally loyal to Stilicho (and Alaric, I guess you could say, had a very odd special relationship with him). The problem arises from Stilicho's enemies likely turning to Constantine III with Honorius dead. I'm not sure if Constantine invades Italy in 408 (which, I want to stress, will be very difficult. Not only does he have to deal with the Baguadae in the passes, but the Italian field army, if it doesn't defect, is still potent. Stilicho might also call on Alaric's support).

It's a very tenuous situation, but it's one that may very well pay off handsomely for the empire if managed correctly by either side.
 
No deal with Gerontius? (Btw, what is Sarus' odd special relationship with Alaric?)

Also, it occurs to me that Honorius badly mishandled Alaric which directly lead to the sacking of Rome. Obviously there will be big butterflies flowing from this POD, but a more capable Emperor would likely not deceive Alaric so blatantly.
 
No deal with Gerontius? (Btw, what is Sarus' odd special relationship with Alaric?)

Sorry, meant Stilicho, not Sarus. By that I meant Stilicho and Alaric have an interesting history-both of them found the other far too useful to destroy, yet also were all too distrustful of each other. Stilicho could have destroyed Alaric twice during their wars yet decided against it. Then later you find Stilicho and Alaric cooperating to attempt to bring the prefecture of Illyricum into the west's control (before things went to shit and the plan was called off).

I assume a deal could be made with Gerontius, but he'd have to ditch Maximus of Hispania first.Remember also, Gerontius didn't rebel until 409, so the west still has the entirety of 408 to survive before that becomes an option. In that case if he could do as well as he did IOTL against Constanstine, he'd be in a great position to set himself up as a proto (and less competent, given that his soldiers deserted him at the first sight of Constantius OTL) Aetius. But that also assumes Constantine isn't more successful in Italy, which would leave more forces for him to leave to Constans to deal with Gerontius.

Also, it occurs to me that Honorius badly mishandled Alaric which directly lead to the sacking of Rome. Obviously there will be big butterflies flowing from this POD, but a more capable Emperor would likely not deceive Alaric so blatantly.
It is really hard for the situation to play out so badly that Alaric ends up sacking Rome and the Goths move to southern Gaul. Most likely, if Stilicho or Sarus ends up staying in power, a deal of some sorts will be struck, Alaric will be paid off, and maybe he'd assist in stopping a Constantine invasion of Italy before returning to the Balkans. Because the Romans really don't want to settle the Goths in southern Gaul if they can help it, and past history shows that the Italian field army was strong enough to force Alaric back if necessary.

If Constantine manages to successfully invade Italy (say, the Italian field army mutinies as per OTL and declares for Constantine, causing Sarus to flee as a result), then I can see him standing up to Alaric. He'd in all likelihood win (though a total victory is probably unlikely, more like he just sends him back into the Balkans), because as mentioned, the Gothic army generally favored very poorly when put in pitched battle against a strong Roman force. At this point how long Alaric maintains control of the Goths is an open question-he probably lost most of his gold subsidy, he's failed in securing his people better living conditions, and this is another failed military endeavor for him-he'll probably raid Thrace and Greece to try and prop up his position, but he may well fall from within.
 
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