Hong Kong's New Territories Ceded in Perpetuity

[LawyersGunsMoney]

Let's assume that the New Territories were ceded to Britain in perpetuity (either at the same time as Hong Kong Island or later), instead of having the lease.

Would the PRC have tolerated the entire area to stay with Britain even if the PRC had no legal right to it? I'm guessing PRC would have demanded it back anyway and just relied on the treaty being "unequal". I don't see an indigenous independence movement developing given a giant Communist neighbor clamoring for annexation. And up until very recently, I can't imagine a plebiscite resulting in a merger with China (and the UK wouldn't have even allowed this like in OTL).

So my guess is HK would have fallen, violently and humiliatingly for the UK, and probably earlier than 1997. UK-Chinese relations would have been damaged in a similar way to Portuguese-Indian relations after Goa fell. The UN wouldn't even say it's illegal, because it's China. No special relationship with mainland China, but probably not a vastly different situation than OTL. Unless I'm missing something.

 

[Simon]

Well the Portuguese had been ceded Macau in perpetuity but the Chinese declared the treaty invalid due to their viewing it as an 'unequal treaty' so I'd assume that they would view Hong Kong in the same light. What they do I think really depends on when - if earlier on when the hardliners are involved it's more likely to see them take direct action, later on after Deng's reforms start I'd think it would take more the shape of an economic embargo against the territory and UK in general. Direct action can run the range from sending the military in, simply ordering a million or so Chinese peasants to mass on the border and then walk across much like Morocco and their Green Walk, to closing the border and blocking all trade with them.

The only reason that Britain hung on to Hong Kong for so long was that it mostly took care of itself, didn't cost them anything to own and was located in a useful position for certain things. If once China begins to reform and their economy starts expanding rapidly Britain and it's businesses find themselves locked out of that they're going to trade Hong Kong away as fast as diplomatically possible without it looking completely blatant. Domestically Hong Kong is all about money and trade as well, if they see staying with the British meaning that they're losing out economically then they're going to start putting a lot of pressure on the British government to come to an understanding with the People's Republic. Mostly I see things going along the same lines as our timeline with some form of One China, Two Systems agreement being negotiated. The only way around that is for one of the treaties that ceded Hong Kong or the New Territories to include a clause guaranteeing the territory's trading rights with the mainland and giving them Most Favoured Nation status, but even then the Chinese will still be annoyed and do whatever they can to reclaim Hong Kong over time.

 

[corditeman]

Less excuse for a takeover...

...The key factor about the 100-year 'New Territories' was that Kowloon and HK island weren't viable without the NT.

If the NT was PERMANENTLY ceded to UK, then it might be a Guantanamo Bay situation. Despite Russian allies, Cuba has never taken it back.

Goa and Macao are different - Portugal was on the skids and unwilling to do more than protest.

You might have a 'huff and puff' situation analogous to the Falkland Islands - the PRC might decide that annoying another nuclear power was not in their best interests. HK was a useful entrepot for the PRC, and a useful safety-valve for dissent.

 

[Simon]

You might have a 'huff and puff' situation analogous to the Falkland Islands - the PRC might decide that annoying another nuclear power was not in their best interests.

Oh come on Britain was never in a million years going to go nuclear over Hong Kong. It would be seen as a massive over-reaction and the global diplomatic damage to the UK's international standing would have been absolutely appalling. Are you seriously suggesting that if the Chinese government ordered the population of Canton to go for a walking holiday to Hong Kong one weekend that any sane British Prime Minister would press the button or do anything more than take diplomatic measures? They couldn't go the UN route as China has a veto in the Security Council and any debate in General Assembly is unlikely to be successful since China will just position it as a legacy of colonialism and if not carry the vote stop the UK from winning one, much like the Falklands the US will try to stay out of things - especially if it happens after the start of the 1990s with the Cold War winding down and China starting to look highly profitable, and militarily there's not much they can do outside of the nuclear option without looking like complete arseholes.

 

[RousseauX]

...The key factor about the 100-year 'New Territories' was that Kowloon and HK island weren't viable without the NT.

If the NT was PERMANENTLY ceded to UK, then it might be a Guantanamo Bay situation. Despite Russian allies, Cuba has never taken it back.

Goa and Macao are different - Portugal was on the skids and unwilling to do more than protest.

You might have a 'huff and puff' situation analogous to the Falkland Islands - the PRC might decide that annoying another nuclear power was not in their best interests. HK was a useful entrepot for the PRC, and a useful safety-valve for dissent.

The problem is that the PRC views the NT and HK as unalienable Chinese unlike Mongolia and the amur river basin, , and have a much better claim on it than does Argentina on the FI. There's way too much history and legitimacy at hand for any Chinese government, Communist or Nationalist, not to press the claims to it once it has the chance.

 

[Kou Gakei]

PRC (assuming it is the one that rules the mainland) will press claims sooner or later.

 

[Jonathan Kan]

Qing lost the First Opium War and ceded Hong Kong Island.

Qing lost the Second Opium War and ceded (southern half of modern) Kowloon and Stonecutters island.

Qing lost no war against British and ceded a much lager chunk of land?

It was just doesn't make sense.

 

[Ariosto]

The New Territories being acquired in perpetuity was actually a proposal in regards to the lease at Wei-Wei; the latter would be have been returned to meet that end.

If that is the situation that would have arise, I doubt that the British would have willingly handed over Hong Kong unless those that lived there voted on joining with the Mainland. Certainly there might be butterflies, but assuming they are minor until at least the 1970's................well, there is going to be an awfully heated diplomatic war of words between the two which could end up turning into a small-scale military conflict that would prove a diplomatic disaster to the People's Republic.
​

 

[Devvy]

The New Territories being acquired in perpetuity was actually a proposal in regards to the lease at Wei-Wei; the latter would be have been returned to meet that end.

If that is the situation that would have arise, I doubt that the British would have willingly handed over Hong Kong unless those that lived there voted on joining with the Mainland. Certainly there might be butterflies, but assuming they are minor until at least the 1970's................well, there is going to be an awfully heated diplomatic war of words between the two which could end up turning into a small-scale military conflict that would prove a diplomatic disaster to the People's Republic.
​

This is your best bet. Weihei returned, and HK New Territories converted to a permanent lease.

Come the 1990s, with Macau returned and China pressing for HK, Britain holds a referendum in Hong Kong to ask if HK should become Chinese. Unsuprisingly, HK votes overwhelmingly to remain British, and so Britain has some political traction for ignoring the Chinese, and a license to threaten action if the Chinese pull any military move.

 

[Jonathan Kan]

Also, Sir Frederick's plan was rejected by Whitehall for good reasons, it was extremely unlikely that British would give up Weihaiwei in 1909:

1. It was during the height of Anglo-German Naval rivalry, British need to gain a foothold in order to keep German Naval Presence at Tsingtao in check, unless somehow Germany pull out of East Asia and Pacific completely (it might require sudden death of Kaiser Bill and his successor offer a détente to British, which would had a massive butterfly effect).

2. Weihaiwei guarding the entrance of Bohai Strait and also about 200km away of Korean Peninsula, gaining perpetual ownership over the New Territories simply couldn't replace the geopolitical significance of Weihaiwei.

3. If the Qing government allow a lease territory turn full annexation, other Great Powers would follow suit, if would be a massive loss of "Mandate of Heaven", Revolution would start early. Perhaps Qing would only agreed on such a deal only if the Great Powers will to weaved a large sum of Boxer Indemnity, but it also mean a great loss of extra income of the Great Powers.

P.S. check out this old thread.

 

[Panica]

Do not seek logic where is not..

Like Indians they would diplomatic mambo jambo to take once they want it!
But would they like to have it? I am no fan of PRC. Less territory they control the better.

 

[Panica]

The New Territories being acquired in perpetuity was actually a proposal in regards to the lease at Wei-Wei; the latter would be have been returned to meet that end.

If that is the situation that would have arise, I doubt that the British would have willingly handed over Hong Kong unless those that lived there voted on joining with the Mainland. Certainly there might be butterflies, but assuming they are minor until at least the 1970's................well, there is going to be an awfully heated diplomatic war of words between the two which could end up turning into a small-scale military conflict that would prove a diplomatic disaster to the People's Republic.
​

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

 

[Dirk_Pitt]

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

Please calm down, sir, I'm no fan of the PRC, but there's no basis for that at all.

 

[marcus_aurelius]

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

Ummmm... what the eff?

Marc A

 

[RousseauX]

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

Every China thread will have a crazie in it

 

[EternalCynic]

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

You do know that in the 80s it was open US policy to strengthen China against the USSR, correct? And that any attempt to deliberately harm Hong Kong will lead to such an anti-British backlash that PLA will be greeted as liberators, right?

 

[RousseauX]

You do know that in the 80s it was open US policy to strengthen China against the USSR, correct? And that any attempt to deliberately harm Hong Kong will lead to such an anti-British backlash that PLA will be greeted as liberators, right?

It's not about rationality.

It's about left-over cold war hatred for any country with a Communist party in power combined with the hatred for the dirty orientals for stealing American jobs, loaning America money, and eroding the power of the America in general.

The ultimate cause for such venom hatred is the jealousy of a power viewing itself in declining feels towards a power it's perceive to be rising, provoking a feeling of inferiority which most people aren't comfortable with.

 

[CalBear]

And this is the best out come once its starts.
Establish right to bear arms. Give everyone full auto gun store grande, RPGs.
And establish something like SEO.
Especially HK is destroyd but PRC is given full broadside. Maybe CIA will start catching spies which were and are stealing Aerospace technology. No slave exports. And maybe revolution. I would love that! PRC go to hell!

Did you run out of your meds?

This post is, well, nuts.

Your previous posting history seems to indicate that this may be aberration, so I'll leave the Banhammer in the safe for now.

Kicked for a week.

Leave the crazy stuff in your other jacket when you return.

 

[Nae'Blis]

Like Indians they would diplomatic mambo jambo to take once they want it!
But would they like to have it? I am no fan of PRC. Less territory they control the better.

The thing about Indian imperialism as regards Goa was that Portugal is a weak non-nuclear power. Britain could do a better job fighting back.

The PRC would not want it back until after Xiaping's economic reforms, it was too useful as British territory before that. Honestly I don't think the PRC would be raising a fuss until the 21st century, after all Macao remained Portuguese until 1999. After 2000 I can see the PRC becoming increasingly insistent, but there would be too much domestic pressure for the UK to just hand it over, they would have to hold a referendum first which would probably side with staying British. I could see some sort of joint sovereignty condominium being established in a couple of years though.

 

[thekingsguard]

At that point, what are the odds that it could be integrated into the UK proper?