Hong Kong

I was recently playing a game where the British deny China's claim to Hong Kong in 1984. What surprised me was that when the conflict erupted, the English already had an aircraft carrier, reinforcements and British allies had troops on standby.

Then I listened to the explanation prior to the scenario and now my understanding is that the British and Chinese negotiated for maybe a year, giving the British time to coordinate troops and a battle plan.

And so, what I am wondering is if the British could outlast the Chinese?

The Harrier was a pretty good multi-role fighter. The British tanks could outmatch what the Chinese have, especially the Challenger I. The only issue is the Chinese have the British outnumbered. If the British could swiftly take air and naval superiority, the British with the Canadians and Australians could inflict a high casualty rate on the Chinese.

But are those factors enough to keep the Chinese back?
 
And so, what I am wondering is if the British could outlast the Chinese?
No. The Chinese can turn off the water supply, at which point the fall of Hong Kong is a matter of days away with the most optimistic assumptions.

An interesting question is, what is the latest date at which Britain could force the Chinese to cede the New Territories?
 
Er no ?

Why would the PRC actually start a open war when they can just cut off trade/supplies and the slowly sneak in a large force of troops out of uniform ready to take over from day 1? (and you need a very different 1984 GB to be able to constantly support such a large battle group on the other side of the world)

what is the latest date at which Britain could force the Chinese to cede the New Territories?

I would say WWII or earlier, after loss of Singapore its to late and GBs prestige in the east is to low.
 
I didn't think of the water being turned off, or the power. And yes, the UK is too far away to supply the area.

Reminds me of when Georgia invaded South Ossetia, they did the same thing. Good thing Russia is right there and its not a small peninsula/ small islands
 
I didn't think of the water being turned off, or the power. And yes, the UK is too far away to supply the area.

Reminds me of when Georgia invaded South Ossetia, they did the same thing. Too bad Russia is right there and its not a small peninsula/ small islands

FTFY

But yeah, Hong Kong is indefensible on its own. It has zero military depth (i.e. no ground to retreat to), and the water supply is in China. Good example of just how much the British had a fighting chance was during WWII, with Japan surrounding the area prior to Pearl Harbor and the DoW. And that's with Churchill actively demanding it be reinforced and defended. The port fell by Christmas. :V
 
I was recently playing a game where the British deny China's claim to Hong Kong in 1984. What surprised me was that when the conflict erupted, the English already had an aircraft carrier, reinforcements and British allies had troops on standby.

Then I listened to the explanation prior to the scenario and now my understanding is that the British and Chinese negotiated for maybe a year, giving the British time to coordinate troops and a battle plan.

And so, what I am wondering is if the British could outlast the Chinese?

The Harrier was a pretty good multi-role fighter. The British tanks could outmatch what the Chinese have, especially the Challenger I. The only issue is the Chinese have the British outnumbered. If the British could swiftly take air and naval superiority, the British with the Canadians and Australians could inflict a high casualty rate on the Chinese.

But are those factors enough to keep the Chinese back?

I too played that Air land war (Red Dragon?) Scenario and while I enjoyed having my Commonwealth troops ambushing Chinese tank Columns - at the back of my mind was the understanding that it was highly improbable that either side would fight over the colony – and much as I admire the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand militaries – I cannot see them sending a large portion of their militaries to fight over Hong Kong (more likely they would send troops to free up British troops from other obligations if anything)

Especially as Britain is going to hand it over anyway in 1997

But back to Hong Kong and in the vein of a hypothetical clash

Much as I rate the British armed forces in the 1980s – it’s an all volunteer nearly 100% ‘regular’ armed force with an enviable legacy of professionalism and skill at arms and '1 on 1' I would ‘bet on them’ to triumph against any other armed force on the planet – but the ratio of the Total UK Army vs. Total China Army is about 1:19 in man power during the 80s and the Chinese have effectively got home field advantage

Also the British would start day one with an under strength Ghurkha Brigade

1 of the 3 Battalion’s was always deployed to Brunei and possibly as much as an entire 2nd Battalion deployed elsewhere in the world – which means that you have at best a 2 Battalion Brigade.

With a week’s warning I would suspect that a light Division – comprising Royal Marine Commandos (3 battalions + a Brigade HQ) The Parachute Regiment (3 battalions + a Brigade HQ) and a Brigade of Light rolled Regular Infantry battalions + limited amounts of Divisional assets (artillery / SAM, field kitchens etc) would have arrived
One month + a Heavy Division with all the trimmings could be deployed and all the remaining artillery and transport + Helo’s + heavier divisional assets could have turned up for the light division

But even then say after 3 months of prep its a big ask for say 30,000 British troops to face of against a much larger Chinese army basically operating from its home turf – and if heavy Artillery is used against the city then this could force Britain’s hand

I recall one Chinese Military writer (a Colonel in the Peoples army) in the 90s writing that in a total war there are no rules – and I cannot see a China that has decided to annex the Colony by force waiting those 1 -3 months for the British to reinforce the place – just to be sporting! ;)
 
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Politically interesting

I think that, whilst very unlikely, this is an interesting what if on a political level.

OTL Thatcher trumped Foot in the 1983 election. However Foot was a well-known pacifist and, whilst the Labour platform was largely unpopular at the time, in the event of escalating tension with China June 1983 might pan out a little differently.

1984 was economically volatile for the UK - manufacturing was struggling and the Miners' Strike began early in the year.

I wonder if the UK has the appetite for war - considering as this will not be the Falklands where the Chinese will invade without warning.
 
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