Hong Kong was part of Republic of China?

Mrstrategy

Banned
could hong Kong be part of Republic of China instead of the People's Republic of China once the British lease was over?
 
1) no
2) no, because Britain recognized the PRC really early, long before the lease was up.
3) no, because if it were handed over to e.g. Taiwan (Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, whoever), then the PRC would roll in the day the announcement is made.
 
Yea, you're going to need a much earlier POD for that, one where the Nationalists win the civil war or at least hold Southern China to even consider that.
 
The UK continues recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of China, and never establishes ties with the PRC.

But I'm not sure if the PRC would sit back and allow the ROC to move into HK come 1 July 1997.
 
Would ww3 start over Hong Kong ?

No, because the US would not defend it. As I noted elsewhere,

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When the Communists were rapidly gaining control of China in 1949, the US refused to make a firm commitment to the UK to defend Hong Kong because doing that would require the establishment of a "military position well inland" which in return would require "a movement of large-scale forces into China." Thus, "unless we are willing to risk major military involvement in China and possibly global war" it would be "unwise" for the US to contribute to the defense of Hong Kong. https://books.google.com/books?id=BGITDAAAQBAJ&pg=PA45

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The fact is that the PRC could have Hong Kong any time they wanted it.
 
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The UK continues recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of China, and never establishes ties with the PRC.

But I'm not sure if the PRC would sit back and allow the ROC to move into HK come 1 July 1997.

The UK not recognizing the PRC is almost ASB territory--in part, precisely because the British knew how vulnerable Hong Kong was. And if the British had refused to recognize the PRC, I doubt the latter would wait until 1997...
 
Would ww3 start over Hong Kong ?
HK just isn't important enough to risk nuclear war over. Moreover, by the time of the handover negotiations in '84, China was needed as an peusdo-ally against the Soviets.
One possibile, earlier POD may be madame Mao taking over Mao and transforming China into a pariah state. Then Madame Mao could use HK as ammunition for her propaganda machine. But beyond that? Not much.
 
HK just isn't important enough to risk nuclear war over. Moreover, by the time of the handover negotiations in '84, China was needed as an peusdo-ally against the Soviets.
One possibile, earlier POD may be madame Mao taking over Mao and transforming China into a pariah state. Then Madame Mao could use HK as ammunition for her propaganda machine. But beyond that? Not much.

I'm pretty sure Madame Mao and the Gang of Four could still get the PLA to roll over HK if they wanted, even when they're busy gutting China inside out. And it's not just how and why Britain would cede it to Taiwan that's the issue. How do you get Taiwan (or anyone for that matter) to send troops to HK and hold before the PLA rolls in?
 
I'm pretty sure Madame Mao and the Gang of Four could still get the PLA to roll over HK if they wanted, even when they're busy gutting China inside out. And it's not just how and why Britain would cede it to Taiwan that's the issue. How do you get Taiwan (or anyone for that matter) to send troops to HK and hold before the PLA rolls in?
It's not whether they can do it, it's if they want to do it. If madame Mao takes power, the CCP is sure to be deeply divided amongst reformists and conservatives, while the issue of who is to succeed Madame Mao will lead to political instability (since Mao's son died in the Korean war). Madame Mao needs propaganda ammunition now more than ever. Sure, retaking Hong Kong will be a great victory for international socialism, but wouldn't broadcasting that capitalists still owned Chinese land just be better in terms of propaganda? Moreover, a forcefully reunified Hong Kong will most likely stare at horror at a China without Deng, then become a hotbed of reformist activity and unrest--definately not good for Madame Mao.
 
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