Hong Kong under the Republic of China

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Nathan Bernacki, Aug 15, 2019.

  1. Nathan Bernacki Well-Known Member

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    In a timeline where the Republic of China won the Chinese Civil War either before (blocking the Long March) or after World War II (crushing the Communists in Manchuria)?, would Hong Kong still be a stronghold of opposition and dissent against the mainland?
     
  2. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    I assume that China under the KMT would be a democracy by now and Hong Kongers wouldn't have as much of a problem with Beijing.
     
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  3. NiGHTS BMC-14

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    Most likely not, but it would in general be a lot less relevant, since there'd be less of a reason to keep Hong Kong having a special status. It would end up highly integrated with the ROC. Overall, it would be as famous and as relevant Macao.
     
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  4. volantredx Well-Known Member

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    I think it would depend on how reactionary the KMT run China would end up being. If they followed the typical model of the US supported nations in the Cold War they likely would be similar to South Korea and basically be a typical democracy which HK likely wouldn't have many issues with. At the same time they might have become very controlling trying to stamp out Communist revolts. In which case it'd be sort of like today but with the names of the parties changed.
     
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  5. GenericAltHistorian The AS of B

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    Depends on whether the ROC democratizes itself or remain a one-party state under KMT rule (which is kinda unlikely for the 21st century)
     
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  6. darthfanta Offline

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    Ya mean Nanjing lol.
     
  7. jeckl Well-Known Member

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    It could end up as 'the Monaco of the east', small but not a part of the bigger nation. It really depends on HOW the Rep China acts towards it and the other colonies. Chaing wanted to get ride of them, but it all depends.
     
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  8. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    That role is already taken by Macao.
     
  9. jeckl Well-Known Member

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    If Macao remains independent then HK likely would as well.

    Although I guess HK would be more like Luxembourg.
     
  10. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    With the international border removed, Hong Kong can be expected to sprawl out.
     
  11. Dan1988 Vamos abrir a porta da esperança!

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    As long as the ROC remains a dictatorship or becomes a Singapore writ large, then yes. Once it becomes a democracy, then Hong Kong's role will diminish and thus be another Chinese city with nothing special attached to it.
     
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  12. Chris S Member

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    Honestly this depends on a lot of factors.

    Firstly, Hong Kong only really started on the road of representative democracy in the 1980s after the Anglo-Chinese agreement on the transfer of Hong Kong. So conceivably, had the Republic of China won the Chinese Civil War (either in 1936 using the Long March POD you have or in 1946-1947), then the Temporary Provisions against the Communist Rebellion would likely never even pass (or if they do then they expire in 1951). At which point we have a Republic of China that has:

    * a directly elected Legislative Yuan (as the legislature) with 3 year terms
    * a directly National Assembly (whose purpose was to elect the President of the Republic and amend the Constitution) with 6 year terms
    * a President of the Republic elected by the National Assembly with a 6 year terms (and a max of 2 terms)
    * a Premier/Prime Minister who would be nominated and appointed by the President after the Legislative Yuan gave its consent to the nominee

    .....meanwhile Hong Kong continues to be run in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s by a Governor appointed by the British with an advisory Legislative Council consisting of other official government members (appointed to their positions) and unofficial members who were appointed by the Governor. So unless a lot of things change and the Republic of China in victory becomes a one-party KMT state, then as the 1970s roll around a few things are going to happen:

    1. Portugal's Carnation Revolution (presumably not butterflied away) will result in a Portuguese government which in 1974-1975 will begin to propose handing over Macau to China.

    2. The Lease on most of Hong Kong would be coming to an end in 1997 and the British will likely begin talks with China in the 1970s and 1980s on resolving the issue. As In OTL the British may press for an extension of the lease or continuation of British administration under Chinese sovereignty but I doubt a Republic of China that won the Civil War in the 1930s-1940s and had continued under the 1947 Constitution would agree to either of those options and so we get a handover in 1997.

    3. Any changes the British make to the local governance of Hong Kong in the 1980s will likely only have the effect of having Hong Kong catch up with 40 years of Chinese democracy.

    End result is that Hong Kong is very unlikely to become a special autonomous city but rather, it and Macau will become municipalities in Guandong province, though there may be special local provisions concern language and contract law and such.
     
  13. Dan1988 Vamos abrir a porta da esperança!

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    OTOH, as far as HK is concerned, an SAR status of a more limited scale could be possible, since the ROC were quite free in using SAR status as a temporary means of creating new provinces (the last one, Hainan, was due to become a province in 1949). Macau, OTOH, would probably have not as much of a legal distinction apart from language [addition of Portuguese] and culture, since Portuguese civil law transitioned from a more Napoleonic influence to a more Germanic influence in the late 1960s, while the ROC's modern legal codes are also Germanic-influenced (since the ROC copied them initially from Meiji-era Japan, which copied a lot of things from the Prussians), and hence there's a lot of common ground which can be bridged. So Macau I could see as a municipality (or collection of municipalities) within Guangdong that has some special quirks, while HK due to its separate legal system and all that could become first an SAR and then a special municipality on the level of Nanjing, Guangzhou, and IOTL (since 1949) Taipei and Kaohsiung.
     
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  14. interpoltomo please don't do coke in the bathroom

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    No change besides it being the KMT and not the CCP shooting protestors.
     
  15. NiGHTS BMC-14

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    Why would they keep Portuguese?
     
  16. Dan1988 Vamos abrir a porta da esperança!

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    Because that's the literary language of the Macanese community (the spoken form would be Patuá), and much of the colonial legislation was written in the Portuguese language. Even today IOTL in order to practice law in the Macau SAR you have to learn and have a reasonable command of Standard (European) Portuguese, since the Civil Code is written in that language (although these days spoken Portuguese has heavy phonetic influence from Cantonese, so some sounds in Standard European Portuguese are substituted with near-equivalents in Cantonese). The analogue here would be many other areas of the former Portuguese Empire (the closest example to me is Cape Verde, since my part of the US has a large Cape Verdean-American community) where this diglossia/bilingualism exists, where the local crioulu functions as the spoken vernacular while the prestige language is Portuguese.
     
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  17. NiGHTS BMC-14

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    I mean, wouldn't the ROC, who may have less computations trying to get rid of old colonial influences, try to fully integrate Macao into China as a whole eventually. Like, making the laws more uniformed, or at least translating the Civil Code into Mandarin. After all, China isn't like other nations were their foundation was the old colonial set ups of the Europeans.
     
  18. Dan1988 Vamos abrir a porta da esperança!

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    True - but more like Cantonese or Cantonese-influenced Mandarin (which could give credence to HK's vernacular written Cantonese and spur it into standardization as a literary form). OTOH you also have the Macanese community, which has similar origins as HK's Eurasian community, not to mention the remaining Europeans who may not want to leave Macau for Portugal (e.g. they don't like the leftist attitudes of the post-Carnation Revolution government, but OTOH do not want to become as much of a nuisance as the other retornados had). Basically, starting from the Ming dynasty, what Macau created was a unique "Meditterasian" culture and society that was hard to replicate, and one part of it - particularly from the 19th century - was the coexistence of Portuguese and Cantonese Chinese (before the founding of Hong Kong, Macau was to China what Nagasaki's Dejima area was to Tokugawa Japan). Some accommodation would need to be made to ensuring continued usage of Portuguese among Macau's minorities, even if only for the cultural prestige if nothing else.
     
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  19. NiGHTS BMC-14

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    Considering how small the Macanese community is, it would seem a bit "frivolous" to try and preserve a culture that would effectively be a reminder of how Europeans used to rule parts of China. Like, I can't see the ROC trying to preserve it just, so Macao could essentially be "special".

    Like, unless absolutely necessary, most nations that were colonized would probably try to get rid of anything that looks like they have a colonial mentality of seeing the culture and people of their colonizers as being "special" or "superior". And mixed race cultures would probably be seen in the same way. Those who seriously want to keep Portuguese language and culture would just head to Portugal, those who don't would stay with China, and those who try to stay,but who want to preserve Portuguese ways, would end up absorbed by the tide. I mean I would think it would be really hard for Mainland Chinese, even in the ROC, to see a Chinese City wanting to retain its old colonial culture as anything more than just having a colonial mentality.
     
  20. Chris S Member

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    Well given the Chinese constitution at the time (which is the only document we have describing the state theorized in this thread - see my second link in my post) it would be quite likely that any Republic of China that survived through the 1940s into the 1990s on that basis would probably:

    1. Not have a problem maintaining Portuguese in one small municipality returned by Portugal

    2. Constitutionally such cultural autonomy is permissible and likely even protected.

    3. Might not even be able to stop a Macau municipality from adopting Portuguese as a local language
     
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