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Let's say Japan dosen't modernize, and is stuck is a semi-colonal state similar to China.
Would it be possible for a city to be "given" to a imperial power (probably Britain) like Hong Kong? What citiy(s) would mostly likely be given? On what pretext could it happen? Could it be obtained peacfully, or is a war the most likely option?
Or is Japan not modernizing just going to end a direct colony of Britain or France?

For added interestingness, lets say the Netherlands and Prussia form an united nothern German empire, and has a large navy that can somewhat compete with Britain in the Far East.
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