Having commented on this before I have imagined a scenario without World War Two due to a surviving Kaiserreich post-World War One. I see similar pressure on German befriending China and being enemies with Japan. Nationalist China had a strong agenda to get the Colonial Powers out of China and end the Treaty Port system so I assume the situation will be a rather isolated Hong Kong with China putting pressure on Britain to vacate early. Hong Kong would likely never get the exodus from Shanghai and both it and Canton are the big trade ports, Hong Kong never grows into a window on the PRC or a safe haven, if anything it falls into isolation, bypassed and a relative backwater, more like Gibraltar, its fate tied more to British strategic needs than commerce. As the Empire retreats it gets to be a distant pocket, especially if the Chinese avoid trading with the colony, a sort of boycott. In this scenario I imagined Singapore burgeoning into what Hong Kong became, it seems more relevant to a longer lasting British presence in India and SEA, it might be a better military outpost and seems a better link to Japan whom I would see as the other trade partner to the British rather than China who have moved towards the USA and Germany (maybe USSR too). Once a post-East of Suez strategy emerges then Hong Kong might lose its relevance fast.