Home Rule implemented

For the PoD, obviously Franz Ferdinand doesn't have such rubbish luck. The casus belli will probably be something to do with Bulgaria, still smarting after the Balkan Wars, receiving the backing of Germany, who needs a fight before 1916. That introduces consequences and butterflies of its own.

For Ireland, some kind of compromise would have to be implemented. It would be carrot-and-stick, and even then the hard-line unionists would probably raise a raucus. I think that probably the government would have tried to rush the act through without grasping the unionist thistle by excluding a nine-county Ulster "provisionally" and scheduling talks on its fate for much later. You could potentially have some king of Ausgleich situation where every (length of time) the Irish try to get more of Ulster and move towards dominion status. "Hungary Reborn" indeed. But time it just right, and the controversial compromise can go through just before the war, thus creating a surge of patriotism and voluntarismo at the right moment to prevent serious violence.

The problem, of course, would be if future negotiations have to be undertaken with a conservative government in London...
 
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MrP

Banned
It's a good question, and I'll be interested to see what our political experts have to say. OTL's Curragh Crisis was precipitated by the UK govt ordering British army units to secure arms depots in the Ulster region. Because many of the officers were Ulster-born or very sympathetic to the Northerners,* and felt the govt was behaving in a thoroughly immoral fashion, and they were wary that they might have to fight their own friends and people, there was a strike.

Assuming this occurs before the PoD (i.e. a simple have FF not get shot PoD), then the govt will be very wary in selecting the soldiers it uses for its next attempt. If the Curragh Crisis is butterflied away by the PoD being earlier, and the govt still tries to force things through, then one will have a break-down in govt-military cooperation at a dangerous level at a time when it needs to be at its best.

An interesting point is that IOTL a large chunk of the Ulster Volunteers, on being pacified that Home Rule was to be delayed, enlisted for WWI. In the South, there was a sense of betrayal at the delay, and it was mainly just moderates who enlisted. This had the effect of radicalising the independence movements in the South. So no war, and there will be more reasonable people in the South, and also a load more champing-at-the-bit UVF (or is it UVA? I forget) glaring at them from Ulster.

* The govt wasn't totally stupid. It had a quiet policy of allowing any officers with such sympathies to disappear for the duration of the problem, provided they were actually domiciled in the North. But they forgot about chaps like Gough. For although Ulster-born, he no longer lived there.
 
No Easter Rising

There would have been no Easter Rising and had Northern Ireland been left out of Home Rule the loyalist threat would have fizzled out. Whether home rule would have pacified Sinn Fein and the extreme nationlists is another issue but they would have been marginalised.

The delay of World War 1 would have had other effects however. There was widespread industrial unrest in Britain that may well have escalted in the absence of war. Also there would have had to have been a General Election before long. The Liberals lost their majority in 1910 and relied on support from Labour and the Irish Nationalists and many of the later would be tied down running their own parliament in Dublin. The Tories may well have been in power before war broke out. The Liberals would have lost votes to the Tories for not cracking down on industrial unrest and to Labour for being too tough on it, the secret Lib-Lab electoral pact would probably have broken down
 
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