HOI4's German Civil War

Who do you think would win?

  • The Military Junta

    Votes: 37 69.8%
  • The Nazis

    Votes: 16 30.2%

  • Total voters
    53
In the grand strategy game Hearts of Iron IV, if the player is playing as the German Reich they can take a special option to trigger a civil war in order to depose the Nazis. If this civil war had actually occured in real life, who would have triumphed? Here are the frontlines reconstructed:
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The Nazis. Sorry, but in the early years of the Third Reich, either due to genuine devotion or fear, the Nazi regime was supported by a large majority of the population and the Wehrmacht. I don't see how a uprising against the Nazi regime, especially one by monarchist and democratic elements, could succeed.

Also, the Military Junta is lucky if they don't tear each other apart. In the game, the Junta is led by August von Mackensen, a notorious monarchist and anti-Semite (he supported the stab-in-the-back myth). He despised the parliamentary system of the Weimar Republic. This is the man who is leading a uprising which includes liberals and republicans. I don't see how this could not have devolved into a situation where these factions are more likely to shoot at each other than the Nazis.
 
The Nazis win. Keep in mind that the German military before rearmament was tiny, and had Nazi sympathizers in the ranks, as well as the officer corps.

The Nazis meanwhile had a massive paramilitary army in the SA, and loyalty of the Stalhelm would likely depend on the character of the military uprising. If this uprising comes from democrats loyal to Weimar, the Stalhelm will fight most likely with the Nazis. If its more of a Prussian Officer type coup, than more of the Stalhelm goes with the uprising.

Now, the HOI4 example comes somewhat later on (earliest in 1936). Once Hitler takes Austria, he will be popular enough to win such a Civil War. Indeed, after 1936, he was probably going to win such a civil war. However, in 1936, say the Rhineland annexation leads to a humiliating climbdown, eh, maybe there is more of a shot. After all, the SA had been cowed and the SS was still weak, and the German Officer Corps was still a bit hesitant about things.

Then there is the interesting impact on Nazi internal politics. Hitler largely curbed the more social revolutionary aspects of the SA in 1934, but Nazi leadership included some economic egalitarians and anti-Christians who might take things in a more radical direction if reactionary sections of the army rise in revolt.

I also find the map used in game to be a tiny bit off. Yes, initially, electorally speaking, the Nazis had their most amount of support in the East and in the North, but it wasn't exactly as clear cut as that. They did very well in East Prussia, Pomerania, and in the rural, Protestant areas of the North, as well as more urban, industrial areas of Saxony. But in the quite Catholic Bavaria, it was more like the Western portions of the country. The BVP and Zentrum were strong in each respectively. The Nazis I think would likely not have Bavaria, but would have a bit more in Northern Germany stretching a bit farther to the West, including the Holstein region, but not Hamburg. Berlin would likely rise for the opposition as well.
 
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The Nazis likely win any actual war, but it'd also likely stymie most of Hitler's territorial ambitions. The army would need to be purged, and the actual military equipment would be mostly destroyed. So the Nazis would win, then when their policies collapse due to the lack of war loot to pay for it they'd likely fall out of favor.
 
Didn't elements of the Wehrmacht plot to arrest Hitler in 1938 before the Munich Dictate that only collapsed because of Chamberlain's policy of appeasing Hitler.

You're right, they did, but some elements of the conspiracy wanted to outright shoot Hitler, not arrest him, so the coup plotters even know what each other was planning. Also, just because you shoot/arrest Hitler doesn't mean you automatically win. Assuming that conspiracy failed after Hitler is executed, someone else, most likely Heinrich Himmler, is going to take over. The 20 July 1944 plotters tried to solve this problem by planning to blow up Hitler and Himmler in the same location throughout the year. But they were never in the same room, so they settled for blowing up Hitler on his own in the Wolf's Lair on 20 July.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
1. Not very plausible scenario.

But let's have a look.

In 1936 there isn't yet much of the future WWII Wehrmacht and the huge SA as a Volksheer is already history.
Most man born after 1900 have not received any military training, due to restrictions of Versailles.

While in 1918 a lot of soldiers just took their guns home "just in case" , there should not be a common availability of guns in 1936.

And despite the great depression being pretty much over, people aren't rich, wages are low, savings hardly exist.
There will be little interest in fighting a civil war, most common people just want to get by.

So I go for a balkanisation of Germany, there might be even communist and social democratic areas, France will likely reoccupy the Rhineland, Czechoslovakia and Austria try to close the border due to refugees coming and someone will try to get the Kaiser back.
 
Personally, (and I'm sorry that I couldn't make a shot for this question while it was still relevant.) this would fall under implausible alt-history scenarios cocked up by video games (and I've said time and again, Paradox isn't that good at cooking up alt-history scenarios of the sort.)

Yes, the Nazis would've won such a Civil War, though frankly, I feel that such opposition would've been completely crushed by 1936. (Though saying the common people wouldn't stomach a Civil War would be inaccurate, see Spain.)

For mentions said above, the German opposition would be a mish-mash of liberals, republicans and monarchists against the Nazi regime. It'd be the Spanish Civil War on a much larger scale. With the only positives being that it would stymie at best, or delay at worst, Germany's overall territorial ambitions. In addition, Germany would no longer be in a position to support the Spanish Nationalists in the SCW, which could potentially delay a Nationalist victory. (I'm sorry, I just don't see the Republicans winning due to the Spanish Republicans falling in the same pitfall as the German Opposition.)

In order for the opposition to remotely win, it would require turning back the clock to whatever way to prevent the Nazi's rise to power (and even then the best you're getting is basically a ultra-conservative dictatorship, if not the restoration of the monarchy under Wilhelm III (and the last bit the more extreme case.)
 
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