Hohenzollern Spain

LeopoldHS.jpg


In the same vain of the "Tudor Spain" thread, what if Leopold, Prince of Hohenzollern was able to take the Spainish Crown when it was offered to him in 1868? (say Napoleon III falls ill and isn't able to protest)
How would this effect the balance of power in Europe going forward?
 
Honestly I still seeing the Franco-Prussian war breaking out over this, considering how prudent Nappy III was otl in trying to ensure a Hohenzollern didn't sit on the throne of Spain. Realistic or not, the idea of a Prussian encirclement of France terrified Paris and a war aligns perfectly in Bismarck's goal of German unification.
 
Being the author of a story with such a premise (in my story, the French don't learn about it because a series of circumstances allows the voting for the crown to go at the original date, in early July), I'll say this, apart from the fact that the crown was not offered until 1870:
  • Balance tilts against France. Whether France declares war on Prussia or not (the latter is highly unlikely), all of a sudden Prussia now has a potential ally to the south of its main enemy, which means France now could face a two-front war if there is war against Prussia.
  • If France declares war on just Prussia, they are going to lose all the same - Prussia was better prepared. If the French also declare war on Spain, all the worse for them - they won't be able to concentrate all of their resources in one front, which will mean that Prussia will have an easier time, and Spain, as France weakens, will be able to invade.
  • If Prussia (or Germany) are allied to Spain, Bismarck will probably want to strengthen them, and help prop up their military. This will have consequences in Cuba, potentially putting an end to the rebellion, possibly on better terms. And, of course, with better allies, Germany will have a better standing in the European political scene.
  • If Spain ends up as part of the Franco-Prussian War, then it's going to be a boost to national pride, sorely needed after the mess Isabel II left behind, which will also help boost Leopold as King, probably avoiding the problems Amadeo I went through.
  • I am not sure about Leopold's political inclinations, but if he feels strong enough about his new situation, then he could be a great support of the new Spanish democracy, thus preventing the problems of Amadeo's reign, the First Spanish Republic and the Bourbon Restoration.
  • A stronger Spain is a Spain that can better project its power in Africa, thus severely screwing with France's demands. This could result in France having less territories in Africa than in OTL.
  • As Leopold's wife was a Portuguese princess, I see it likely that her influence could slowly bring Portugal out of Britain's sphere, particularly if the Brits try to force the Portuguese to do the Treaty of London of 1890.
 
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