Hohenzollern Poland: possible PODs and consequences

I'm trying to make a TL about the House of Hohenzollern getting elected into the PLC or inherit the throne of Poland, and I need some PODs to start where I would research. The POD has to be around the Jagelluons and the PLC.
 
You can do what I did and have Hedwig marry Frederick II of Brandenburg, creating a Poland-Lithuania-Brandenburg union if her brothers aren't born.

As to the consequences, well obviously Prussia never exists. This Poland will probably scoop up Pomerania and Prussia earlier, and probably take Silesia at some point as well given Bohemia/Hungary's problems. With an electoral vote, and a strong independent powerbase, TTL's Polish Commonwealth is a major power, well positioned to dominate the Baltic and consolidate northeastern Germany.
 
The PLC was more than willing to elect Kings of neighboring realms as ruler (Sweden and Saxony come to mind) - part of the Vasa union's problem was that a Catholic King of Sweden was unacceptable there, so Sigismund III got tossed. If you can keep the elector of Brandenburg as Catholic and still maintain him as a major power (I can't see how a Catholic Prussian duchy could secularize and form, so perhaps he conquers Protestant Saxony instead of Brandenburg-Prussia) that might be enough to get the Hohenzollerns in the door for the election.
 
Several times Hohenzollerns were close to Polish throne. the best PODs are:
-Władysław II Jagiełło has no sons, his daughter Jadwiga (Hedwig), bethroted to Frederick Hohenzollern succeeded him (no Polish-Lithuanian-Brandenburg union in such situation because Sigismund of Luxembourg would demand Frederick's father to name another successor for Brandenburg to avoid situation, when Polish king is also elector of HRE.
-Sigismund Hohenzollern (1538-1566), son of Hedwig Jagiellon and Joachim II of Brandenburg lives longer-if he outlives his uncle he'll be obvious candidate for throne of PLC in 1573.
-Albert Frederick (born 1551), son of Albert, Duke of Prussia, is sane and decide to convert to Catholicism and run for Polish Crown in 1573 (he was great-grandson of Casimir IV of Poland via his paternal grandmother, Sophia Jagiellon). In this situation he would have something later elective kings of PLC dreamed about-besides elective Polish Crown he'll have hereditary Ducal Prussia, thus his descendants have big chance to turn PLC into hereditary Hohenzollern realm over time.
 
Several times Hohenzollerns were close to Polish throne. the best PODs are:
-Władysław II Jagiełło has no sons, his daughter Jadwiga (Hedwig), bethroted to Frederick Hohenzollern succeeded him (no Polish-Lithuanian-Brandenburg union in such situation because Sigismund of Luxembourg would demand Frederick's father to name another successor for Brandenburg to avoid situation, when Polish king is also elector of HRE.
-Sigismund Hohenzollern (1538-1566), son of Hedwig Jagiellon and Joachim II of Brandenburg lives longer-if he outlives his uncle he'll be obvious candidate for throne of PLC in 1573.
-Albert Frederick (born 1551), son of Albert, Duke of Prussia, is sane and decide to convert to Catholicism and run for Polish Crown in 1573 (he was great-grandson of Casimir IV of Poland via his paternal grandmother, Sophia Jagiellon). In this situation he would have something later elective kings of PLC dreamed about-besides elective Polish Crown he'll have hereditary Ducal Prussia, thus his descendants have big chance to turn PLC into hereditary Hohenzollern realm over time.

Sigismund could demand that, but if Frederick ignores him- and given Sigismund's troubles with the Ottomans and the Hussites, and the fact that Sigismund himself is old and without male heirs, there's no reason to think that he would particularly fear the Emperor's wrath- well there's diddly squat he could do. Heck if it comes down to it, when the Luxemburgs go extinct and the Bohemian and Hungarian crowns go through their succession crisis he could not only secure Brandenburg but potentially peel off part or all of Silesia, or support his cousins in Franconia.

More likely Sigismund would get bought off with a bribe, sort of like how the Hohenzollerns got Brandenburg in the first place.

IIRC there was also a younger brother of Frederick the Great who was considering tossing his hat into the ring for Poland Lithuania.
 
Elector Frederick I wanted Polish throne for his son on one hand, on the other hand he tried to avoid open conflict with Sigismund of Luxembourg, and he had enough sons to split his inheritance-Poland, Lithuania and Brandenburg would be simply hard to manage for one man.
 
Elector Frederick I wanted Polish throne for his son on one hand, on the other hand he tried to avoid open conflict with Sigismund of Luxembourg, and he had enough sons to split his inheritance-Poland, Lithuania and Brandenburg would be simply hard to manage for one man.

Perhaps, perhaps not- Frederick II inherited OTL due to his brother willingly abdicating in 1437, the same year that Sigismund the Old died without male issue; Hungary and Bohemia thereafter fell into anarchy, as the Habsburgs tried (and ultimately failed) to stake their claim as did others like Wladyslaw III and (I think) Hunyadi. Essentially the new, probably Habsburg, Emperor will not be in any position to oppose the Hohenzollern union, and will probably be bought off, especially if it is OTL's Frederick III, who was a fairly mild mannered dude. They may even agree to a partition of Bohemia, with Silesia and/or Lusatia going to Brandenburg-Poland and the rest to Austria. Brandenburg has claims on the latter, and Poland on the former, so both provinces will be of significant concern to the Hohenzollerns, as will Pomerania and Prussia.

I happen to think that it wouldn't be substantially harder to keep together than the OTL commonwealth, if not being easier due to the extra territories/powerbase, Electorship in the HRE (meaning they have leverage in Germany), and stronger border.
 
Frederick, just like Władysław of Varna IOTL could be offered Crown of St. Stephen by Hungarian magnates. Among Czechs OTOH he wouldn't be very popular due to fact, that his father participated in anti-Hussite crusades. Thus within 2 generations Hohenzollerns could gain Brandenburg, Poland, Lithuania and Hungary (suddenly making them most powerfull dynasty in Europe). That definitely would be too much for one man to handle.
 
It seem to me if another Catholic dynasty become kings of Poland, it will have little macro historical effect. It will just be another dynasty which the Sejm will sabotage and which will pulled down into the fall of the Polish state.
 
It seem to me if another Catholic dynasty become kings of Poland, it will have little macro historical effect. It will just be another dynasty which the Sejm will sabotage and which will pulled down into the fall of the Polish state.

It's easy to say that Poland is fated to political gridlock and decline. But that ignores the counterexamples of Russia, on the one hand, and Austria-Hungary, on the other. The fundamental problems facing Poland, like that of Germany was a failure of a royal dynasty (although the Habsburgs made a fair go of it, and even with the Reformation might well have succeeded with a fair bit of effort, say no Spanish inheritance or else the Burgundian Netherlands remaining with the Austrian branch) to consolidate central authority over successive generations. Geography also hindered Poland, less due to her size than due to the openness of her borders. A Hohenzollern Poland does several things: it gives a strong royal dynasty, which is able to gradually consolidate power in a manner similar to Habsburg governance in Bohemia and Hungary, it gives Poland a stronger western border (as it is inconceivable that this union would fail to make a play for Pomerania, and very unlikely that they would not gain it earlier than Prussia did OTL; and even without that, Brandenburg already brings with it part of the Oder border due to the Neumark), it gives the royal dynasty an Electorate- ensuring that they have constant leverage over the German Emperor, and in fact may well prevent the Habsburgs from maintaining their control over the crown- and prevents Brandenburg Prussia from emerging, it gives wealthy and relatively urbanized territory which, again, serves as a counterbalance to the Sejm's influence, and if they can peel off Silesia as well (eminently possible given the crises facing Bohemia-Austria-Hungary in this period) they would have a very defensible border with a very wealthy province. Add to this that a wealthier, more secure Poland, which has gained control of Prussia, Silesia, and Pomerania, would potentially be able to intervene in the east against Muscovite expansion, potentially forestalling Russia's formation if not derailing it entirely.
 
It's easy to say that Poland is fated to political gridlock and decline. But that ignores the counterexamples of Russia, on the one hand, and Austria-Hungary, on the other. The fundamental problems facing Poland, like that of Germany was a failure of a royal dynasty (although the Habsburgs made a fair go of it, and even with the Reformation might well have succeeded with a fair bit of effort, say no Spanish inheritance or else the Burgundian Netherlands remaining with the Austrian branch) to consolidate central authority over successive generations. Geography also hindered Poland, less due to her size than due to the openness of her borders. A Hohenzollern Poland does several things: it gives a strong royal dynasty, which is able to gradually consolidate power in a manner similar to Habsburg governance in Bohemia and Hungary, it gives Poland a stronger western border (as it is inconceivable that this union would fail to make a play for Pomerania, and very unlikely that they would not gain it earlier than Prussia did OTL; and even without that, Brandenburg already brings with it part of the Oder border due to the Neumark), it gives the royal dynasty an Electorate- ensuring that they have constant leverage over the German Emperor, and in fact may well prevent the Habsburgs from maintaining their control over the crown- and prevents Brandenburg Prussia from emerging, it gives wealthy and relatively urbanized territory which, again, serves as a counterbalance to the Sejm's influence, and if they can peel off Silesia as well (eminently possible given the crises facing Bohemia-Austria-Hungary in this period) they would have a very defensible border with a very wealthy province. Add to this that a wealthier, more secure Poland, which has gained control of Prussia, Silesia, and Pomerania, would potentially be able to intervene in the east against Muscovite expansion, potentially forestalling Russia's formation if not derailing it entirely.

Making the Hohenzollern Catholic will not give the Poles a strong dynasty, it will just make the Hohenzollern weak. The Vasa and Wettins was powerful dynasties, the Poles succeed in pulling both down with them. The Hohenzollern became powerful because they was Protestants.
 
You can do what I did and have Hedwig marry Frederick II of Brandenburg, creating a Poland-Lithuania-Brandenburg union if her brothers aren't born.

As to the consequences, well obviously Prussia never exists. This Poland will probably scoop up Pomerania and Prussia earlier, and probably take Silesia at some point as well given Bohemia/Hungary's problems. With an electoral vote, and a strong independent powerbase, TTL's Polish Commonwealth is a major power, well positioned to dominate the Baltic and consolidate northeastern Germany.

For this to happen you still need to address the core of the problem, which is that the nature of the Sejm kept the Polish state decentralized and weak. A Polish equivalent of Louis XIV basically.
 
Making the Hohenzollern Catholic will not give the Poles a strong dynasty, it will just make the Hohenzollern weak. The Vasa and Wettins was powerful dynasties, the Poles succeed in pulling both down with them. The Hohenzollern became powerful because they was Protestants.

The Hohenzollerns became powerful because they had four successive capable rulers and a lot of luck, which allowed them to centralize and turn Brandenburg- described by Frederick the Great as sandier than anywhere but Libya- into a major power. If anything they succeeded in spite of their religion rather than because of it, due to the Great Elector's conversion to Calvinism over the Lutheranism of his subjects.

For this to happen you still need to address the core of the problem, which is that the nature of the Sejm kept the Polish state decentralized and weak. A Polish equivalent of Louis XIV basically.

Given the law of averages, assuming they keep it for four hundred odd years sooner or later they'll get a capable-ish ruler. The basic model I'd follow would be a mix of Austria and Russia; there would be elements of both to the country in question. Assuming it survived. The Sejm gained as much power as they did because the ruling dynasties kept dying out (same thing Germany went through). If it goes straight from Jagellonian to Hohenzollern, and the latter keep it to the modern era (19th or 20th century) then there is no reason to believe that the Sejm would not be closer to the Hungarian estates at worst (assuming, of course, that the Hohenzollerns don't pull an Ivan and go full Sun King/Peter the Great of course), which is to say that they would be powerful, yes, but not cripplingly so. The key is to build up inertia, of the sort only a centuries-long royal dynasty can manage, which is part of the reason I prefer the Jadwig PoD as it's about the earliest you can get for a Hohenzollern Poland given how a few decades before that point they were just petty counts in Swabia/Franconia.
 
Catholic Habsburgs were not weak and it was Great Northern War + Seven Years War that screwed Saxony (a bit less luck and SYW would screw Prussia instead). Frederick Augustus did not changed his personality once he converted.
What screwed Poland was dynasty changed frequently (out of 15 kings, who ruled between 1333 and 1672 only 4 left legitimate surviving sons, when future Władysław of Varna was born in 1424 it was first birth of male heir to the Polish King since birth of Casimir the Great 114 years earlier, was any country in Europe such unlucky with estabilishing of dynasty?), thus there was no stability, double elections, corruption and foreign influence in elections. Last Jagiellonians on the throne were still quite powerfull, Polish elective monarchy would turn into hereditary one if given time, with unbroken chain of sons succeeding their fathers, like Denmark for example, even Capetians started as elective Kings of France.

Also remember, that Jogaila had to give new priviledges to nobles to secure succession of his sons. Jogaila's last marriage was non-dynastic, his last wife was of relatively low birth, with no connections to Polish Kings, unlike Jadwiga's mother Anna of Cili, who was granddaughter of Casimir the Great. Jadwiga was already proclaimed heiress of Polish Kingdom in 1413, Jogaila would avoid problems during last years of his reign with changing succession. Also, unlike sons of Jagiełło Frederick was be full grown man in 1434, so no need for regency, no occassion for magnates to increase their power (especially for bishop of Cracow, Zbigniew Oleśnicki, who was de facto ruler of Poland during miniority of Władysław III, powerfull and ambitious man, who, unfortunately cared much more about interests of the Church that about interest of Poland).
And Poland would have Brandenburgian support during war with Teutonic Order, shorter war means better shape of King's pocket.
 
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The Hohenzollerns became powerful because they had four successive capable rulers and a lot of luck, which allowed them to centralize and turn Brandenburg- described by Frederick the Great as sandier than anywhere but Libya- into a major power. If anything they succeeded in spite of their religion rather than because of it, due to the Great Elector's conversion to Calvinism over the Lutheranism of his subjects..

Their Protestantism allow them to turn a rather worthless bit of land into military powerhouse even before they expanded into better land, their dynasty Reformed religion allowed made them open their border to a large number of French refugees, who helped develop the backward and rural Brandenburg.
 
Hohenzollerns are going to turn into TTL analogue of Habsburgs. Catholicism did not prevented Habsburgs from turning Austria into powerhouse.
 
Hohenzollerns are going to turn into TTL analogue of Habsburgs. Catholicism did not prevented Habsburgs from turning Austria into powerhouse.

The Habsburg already was a powerhouse before the Reformation and in the end they lost to the Margraves of a impoverish north German state.
 
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