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Frederick was the next to last Hochmeister (Grand Master) of the Teutonic Order, serving from 1498 to 1510. He was only 36 when he died, having been elected at the age of 24.

Besides Frederick, birth and death years are known for five of the last seven Grand Masters; all lived to at least 54, and their average span was 64. (Birth years are missing for many of the Grand Masters, as they were usually not of important noble birth.)

If Frederick had lived to age 61... that would have been 1531, well into the Reformation.

Frederick's OTL successor, Albert of Brandenburg-Ansbach, was converted to Lutheranism in 1522 and secularized the State of the Teutonic Order, becoming Duke of Prussia.

Albert was a scion of the Hohenzollerns, being a grandson of an Elector of Brandenburg by his second son. His only son Albert Frederick had no sons. In 1618 Prussia passed to Albert Frederick's son-in-law, John Sigismund, who was also his second cousin thrice removed and Elector of Brandenburg. This put Prussia into personal union with Brandenburg.

If Frederick of Saxony remains Grand Master, then in all probabililty he secularizes the Teutonic State and Prussia becomes a domain of the Albertine branch of the House of Wettin (formed when Frederick's father Albert divided the Wettin lands with his brother Ernest in 1485).

Prussia may remain a separate realm under the Albertine-*Frederickine Wettin line, or end up in personal union with Saxony. The PoD probably butterflies Maurice of Saxony (1521-1553), a clever Albertine boy who took the Electorate from the Ernestine Wettins in 1547. So the union would probably be with the lesser Albertine realm.

But the Hohenzollerns lose out completely.

This has lots of knock-ons; OTL, Saxon rulers were often enmeshed in the affairs of Poland. This will drag them even deeper, and may give them a stronger position.

Any other thoughts?
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