Okay, while home for Easter, I came across The Napoleon Options. I've raised it before, but what with another French revolutionary state invading Britain in LTTW I thought this might be fun to bring up.
the details are fairly itneresting; Hoche lands with 12k men in Southern Ireland, and by the end of January British rule has been reduced to a few islands in a sea of Green, such as Dublin, Belfast, and Limerick.
And the author chooses that moment to decide "Yay, peace!" The Tories fall with the shock of Ireland and the spithead and Nore mutinies bringing down the government, while the Directory manages to suppress Napoleon's plans for a coup.
Yea, that seems pretty unlikely. Far more interesting, IMO, is what would actually happen.
Unlike in 1798, Britain's garrisons in Ireland were surprisingly small; the threat of invasino in 1797 was what persuaded Britain to reinforce the island.
Moreover, with 12,000 French troops (and probably reinforced at some point), it seems likely that the British would have a more difficult time retaking the island.
I suspect they could; but what happens in the meantime? Does Napoleon still invade Egypt? How long would it take the British to deal with their own Vendee?