I will chime in that FF will shorten the visit to Bosnia. At any rate he will not visit Sarajevo, which will likely save him and his wife. HE will not immediately go to Germany but to Vienna to consult with the Emperor and maybe the govenemnt.
The British, yes - but the German Kaiser was just killed in that explosion, and the Germans might not react with cool heads.
Possibly, though I doubt the conspiracy theorising would be as intense as with the USS Maine.UK reaction might also be interesting as some at least would suspect the Germans had done this deliberately (shades of USS Maine). In which case the Kaiser's death would be seen as unfortunate accident or even something to give the Germans cause for a casus belli . So one prospect is to make war more likely after the ArchDuke's assassination.
This seems very likely to me.But conversely and perversely I wonder if Kaiser Wilhellm's removal might cause other counsels to prevail within Germany? Provided the explosion is seen as an unfortunate accident that has hurt both countries it is possible that common grief helps them find a shared solution to the Serbian issue. No blank cheque for Austria-Hungary but also no covert British support for Russian backing for Serbia. So Serbia has to accept much of the OTL ultimatum as punishment for supporting terrorists but is not invaded or completely neutered.
The fascinating possibility to me, is the removal of Kaiser Wilhelm II. What would the effect of Wilhelm III's sudden accession be?Summary, either a slightly earlier WWI with broadly similar outcomes, a delayed war or a different alignment of Powers by 1920.
I suspect that this would certainly happen, it's human instinct, layered with military training.Depends on the immediate reaction to the explosion. German sailors rushing to aid British contempories, an expression of grief at the British deaths and a reciprocal British expression of grief at the Kaiser's demise, could lead to a lowering of tensions between Britain and Germany.
Or some other random butterfly factor changes things.There's always the possibility that the Archduke -- himself a personal friend of the Kaiser -- cuts short his inspection tour so that he can attend the Kaiser's funeral. That may mean he's no longer in Sarajevo to be assassinated; though it's entirely possible that he's still there at the time.
Maybe after a war starts, I don't think that such a campaign would be likely except during an existing crisis.The Daily Mail and Daily Express runs a 'Remember the Vanguard' campaign in a similar vein to the 'Remember the Maine' campaign run by US Papers after the loss of the USS Maine in Cuba - the assumption being that she was 'mined' while at anchor by the Germans (which is what the US thought at the time - but more likely a coal bunker fire)
My original plan was to have Vanguard explode within the canal, but I couldn't find any reference if the British squadron arrives at Kiel via the canal or around Denmark.Unless the dreadnought was sunk in a BAD place, like actually traversing the Kiel Canal, it's not doing any material damage to Germany. Since the OP had her at anchor, she is out of the way of anything important, like canal locks and such, so conspiracy theorists will have less grist for their mill.
Vanguard was no more modern than Dreadnought, herself nearly obsolete by 1914.though would even perfidious Albion destroy a modern ship to nail the Kaiser, for no good purpose?
Vanguard was no more modern than Dreadnought, herself nearly obsolete by 1914.
That's why I sent her, to bait the German media hawks with the idea that the Brits sent an old battleship turned bombship to destroy the canal or worse (like kill the monarch).