HMS Vanguard explodes at Kiel June 26, 1914

[Admiral Beez]

OTL. June 1914, a British squadron of dreadnought battleships and cruisers visited Kiel, Germany for the annual fleet week event.

http://www.richthofen.com/scheer/scheer01.htm

The English ships comprised a division of four battleships under the command of Vice-Admiral Sir George Warrender, who was flying his flag in the battleship King George V., which was accompanied by Audacious, Ajax, and Centurion, and a squadron of light cruisers, Southampton, Birmingham, and Nottingham, under Commodore Goodenough.

This account of the time describes the suspicion the German press and military felt of the British visit https://archive.org/stream/kieljutland00haseuoft/kieljutland00haseuoft_djvu.txt

July 1917, the dreadnought battleship HMS Vanguard is lost in a magazine explosion while in port at Scapa.

ITTL, HMS Vanguard accompanies the force. Vice-Admiral Warrender is not pleased, as he wants to show off the newer KGV class dreadnoughts, but Vanguard is sent as an indication of how far British design has come, a sort of nudge in the German ribs that even the RN's older dreadnoughts have guns equal (at least in diameter) to the latest German guns. If this reason doesn't suit your fancy, then make up your own.

June 26, 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II is visiting the flagship KGV, when Vanguard, at anchor nearby explodes due to a coal fire being near a magazine. Wilhelm is killed, along with Vice-Admiral Warrender and many others. Two days later, Archduke Franz Ferdinand is assassinated in Serbia. German press are outraged, and suggest the older Vanguard was intended to blow up the Kiel Canal in time for the coming war over the Archduke's killing.

What now?

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Interesting and fairly plausible scenario.

UK reaction might also be interesting as some at least would suspect the Germans had done this deliberately (shades of USS Maine). In which case the Kaiser's death would be seen as unfortunate accident or even something to give the Germans cause for a casus belli . So one prospect is to make war more likely after the ArchDuke's assassination. So something like OTL anyway?

But conversely and perversely I wonder if Kaiser Wilhellm's removal might cause other counsels to prevail within Germany? Provided the explosion is seen as an unfortunate accident that has hurt both countries it is possible that common grief helps them find a shared solution to the Serbian issue. No blank cheque for Austria-Hungary but also no covert British support for Russian backing for Serbia. So Serbia has to accept much of the OTL ultimatum as punishment for supporting terrorists but is not invaded or completely neutered.

Hmm, maybe German paranoia would prevent this hopeful scenario and it's also likely that unless the UK edged away from the Entente its fear of encirclement might lead to war breaking out within two years with another pretext anyway.

Summary, either a slightly earlier WWI with broadly similar outcomes, a delayed war or a different alignment of Powers by 1920.

All IMHO obviously and happy to be contested.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Depends on the immediate reaction to the explosion. German sailors rushing to aid British contempories, an expression of grief at the British deaths and a reciprocal British expression of grief at the Kaiser's demise, could lead to a lowering of tensions between Britain and Germany.

There would be an investigation, if it was made with full German cooperation, it would draw positive comments from the British press.

The timing is important - the 'Crisis' has yet to develop at this point, so officially at least, Germany and Britain are friendly nations.

 

[cpip]

There's always the possibility that the Archduke -- himself a personal friend of the Kaiser -- cuts short his inspection tour so that he can attend the Kaiser's funeral. That may mean he's no longer in Sarajevo to be assassinated; though it's entirely possible that he's still there at the time.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The Daily Mail and Daily Express runs a 'Remember the Vanguard' campaign in a similar vein to the 'Remember the Maine' campaign run by US Papers after the loss of the USS Maine in Cuba - the assumption being that she was 'mined' while at anchor by the Germans (which is what the US thought at the time - but more likely a coal bunker fire)

 

[NHBL]

Ships blowing up all by themselves was not unusual. You don't need to put Vanguard there at all, another ship could blow up just as easily. Investigation will be swift, and likely conducted by both Germany and Britain. I certainly would expect everyone to work to rescue sailors.

Those who want a war will be seeking to use this as an excuse.

How deep is the water Vanguard is sunk in?

 

[Admiral Beez]

How deep is the water Vanguard is sunk in?

Here's Admiral Scheer capsized and presumably on the bottom, so it's not too deep.

 

[NHBL]

A harbor can vary in depth tremendously. If she's sunk in that spot, investigating the explosion is easy.

 

[CalBear]

Magazine explosions are, as noted, far from unknown. You would need the atmosphere to already be superheated (as was the case with Spain and the U.S. when the Maine was lost) to get cause belli out of one

 

[Admiral Beez]

There's always the possibility that the Archduke -- himself a personal friend of the Kaiser -- cuts short his inspection tour so that he can attend the Kaiser's funeral. That may mean he's no longer in Sarajevo to be assassinated; though it's entirely possible that he's still there at the time.

An excellent POD. Vanguard kills the Kaiser, saves the Duke and at worst postpones WW1.

 

[cpip]

An excellent POD. Vanguard kills the Kaiser, saves the Duke and at worst postpones WW1.

I love it. Plus, of course, the investigation and the repair work gives the Germans a chance to really look over a British battleship up close; if it's not Vanguard but one of the KGVs, is there likely anything they could really learn that would be useful to the German shipbuilders?

 

[Admiral Beez]

the repair work gives the Germans a chance to really look over a British battleship up close; if it's not Vanguard but one of the KGVs, is there likely anything they could really learn that would be useful to the German shipbuilders?

Vanguard isn't being repaired, but recovered in pieces. This would give a good opportunity for a close inspection of a KGV class, as it was close enough to Vanguard to cause loss of life and presumably damage.

With the exception of the brand new Iron Duke and Marlborough, the KGV class, at 25,700 tons (full), 598 ft long, armed with 10 x 13.5" guns all on centreline, were the RN's best battleships, and rated amongst the most powerful warships afloat.

The latest German battleships in service, the Kaiser class were heavier, but armed with 12" guns (albeit of much higher MV than Vanguard's 12" guns), with two of those laid out en echelon amidships. They certainly weren't as attractive as the KGV class, IMO.

Notwithstanding their maintaining the Orion's 4" secondaries over the 6" on the Iron Dukes, the KGV class were obviously chosen to impress.

Did the Germans ever make an attractive looking battleship? Powerfully impressive, certainly, but one a sportscar or yacht maker of the day would like? Yes, I know I've baited contrarians who are now desperate to reply that results and capability trump irrelevant looks, but would it kill the Huns to make a nice looking and functional warship?

 

[highwayhoss]

Ships blowing up all by themselves was not unusual. You don't need to put Vanguard there at all, another ship could blow up just as easily. Investigation will be swift, and likely conducted by both Germany and Britain.

Exactly; you could easily have the KGV's magazine explode instead. Basically, investigators determine that the explosion was caused by a fire in a magazine but are unsure what exactly started the fire; this could trigger a frenzy of rumor and suspicion in the press.
As for the Archduke, I have to figure the second he hears of the tragedy, he will change his plans and make arrangements to travel to Germany, butterflying away the assassination.

 

[NHBL]

Unless the dreadnought was sunk in a BAD place, like actually traversing the Kiel Canal, it's not doing any material damage to Germany. Since the OP had her at anchor, she is out of the way of anything important, like canal locks and such, so conspiracy theorists will have less grist for their mill.

 

[zert]

Throwing out the butterflies, say England lays the blame on German provocateurs. If Germany decides that England used the ship to assassinate the Kaiser as well, MIGHT England and Germany get into a shooting war? If so, would France or A-H decide to follow or might everyone else sit on the sidelines?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Throwing out the butterflies, say England lays the blame on German provocateurs. If Germany decides that England used the ship to assassinate the Kaiser as well, MIGHT England and Germany get into a shooting war? If so, would France or A-H decide to follow or might everyone else sit on the sidelines?

Saying the British will blame the Germans, I'm not sure that flies - the death of the Kaiser means the British will have questions to answer, themselves. There'll be the shadow of assasination over the whole incident, the British will be keen to placate everyone over the cause - if it's accidental, that is.

The key thing here is the attitude of the individuals concerned. The British Admirals might act to smooth things over and await the initial investigation results - are there any survivors? Or, they might act like blustering blowhards and begin throwing accusations about like confetti.

The same goes for the Germans, they've lost the Kaiser after all.

At this point in time, German-British relations are frosty, but still officially cordial. There's always been an element of "The Dreadful Hun" in the British press, there won't neccessarily be anything different in this situation.

 

[Byzantion]

OTL. June 1914, a British squadron of dreadnought battleships and cruisers visited Kiel, Germany for the annual fleet week event.

http://www.richthofen.com/scheer/scheer01.htm

The English ships comprised a division of four battleships under the command of Vice-Admiral Sir George Warrender, who was flying his flag in the battleship King George V., which was accompanied by Audacious, Ajax, and Centurion, and a squadron of light cruisers, Southampton, Birmingham, and Nottingham, under Commodore Goodenough.

This account of the time describes the suspicion the German press and military felt of the British visit https://archive.org/stream/kieljutland00haseuoft/kieljutland00haseuoft_djvu.txt

July 1917, the dreadnought battleship HMS Vanguard is lost in a magazine explosion while in port at Scapa.

ITTL, HMS Vanguard accompanies the force. Vice-Admiral Warrender is not pleased, as he wants to show off the newer KGV class dreadnoughts, but Vanguard is sent as an indication of how far British design has come, a sort of nudge in the German ribs that even the RN's older dreadnoughts have guns equal (at least in diameter) to the latest German guns. If this reason doesn't suit your fancy, then make up your own.

June 26, 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II is visiting the flagship KGV, when Vanguard, at anchor nearby explodes due to a coal fire being near a magazine. Wilhelm is killed, along with Vice-Admiral Warrender and many others. Two days later, Archduke Franz Ferdinand is assassinated in Serbia. German press are outraged, and suggest the older Vanguard was intended to blow up the Kiel Canal in time for the coming war over the Archduke's killing.

What now?

 

[Byzantion]

is this inspired by the the USSMaine incident in Havanna ? By the way, Iam from Kiel.

 

[Dalekiller]

Given the British reaction to the Maine sinking (went with coal fire theory) I could see cooler heads prevailing, given the dreaded B powder of the time I could see the British going from that angle first.

 

[Starfox5]

Given the British reaction to the Maine sinking (went with coal fire theory) I could see cooler heads prevailing, given the dreaded B powder of the time I could see the British going from that angle first.

The British, yes - but the German Kaiser was just killed in that explosion, and the Germans might not react with cool heads.